MISSILE DEFENCE UPDATE

22 February 2006

In this issue:

• United States
  • Missile Defence Funding Continues to Spiral Upwards
  • Airborne Laser Program Demoted
  • Sea-Based X-Band Radar Arrives in Hawaii
  • Testing Times: Pentagon and CRS Reports Suggest Diminishing Confidence in Missile Defence
  • Capitol Hill War Game
  • Expansion of US Military Role in Space Anticipated
• Canada
  • Will Missile Defence Decision Be Overturned?
• Japan
  • US to Deploy Radar System Within Six Months
• Russia
  • Back to the Future with a New Generation of ICBMs
  • New Early Warning Missile Defence Base To Be Built in South of Russia
• India
  • Latest Nuclear Missile Ready for Launch
  • Indo-Israel Cooperation on Maritime Missile Defences
  • India and Pakistan Agree Flight Test Notification Agreement
• Publications

Past editions of Missile Defence Update are available at: http://www.basicint.org/update/mdu.htm.

UNITED STATES

Missile Defence Funding Continues to Spiral Upwards

In Fiscal Year (FY) 2006, Congress approved $8.7 billion of the administration's $8.8 billion request for missile defence. The amount requested in the administration's FY 2007 budget published on February 6 is $10.4 billion, an increase of almost 20%. Since the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) is being designed to collect technical intelligence in addition to detecting missile launches, the administration does not include it in its missile defence requests. However, the nearly $700 million for SBIRS in 2007 (about the same as in 2006), pushes the total budget request to $11.1 billion for missile defence projects.

The Missile Defense Agency Fiscal Year 2007 (FY07) Budget Estimate Overview summarises the FY07 budget submission to Congress. It also describes the MDA's priorities, the budget structure, management and oversight processes, program goals and future program and spending highlights.

(Source: Program Acquisition Costs by System in FY 2007 Budget Request, February 2006, as collated by Center for Defense Information.)

Airborne Laser Program Demoted

The multibillion-dollar Airborne Laser (ABL) program, which is developing a weapon to intercept ballistic missiles in their early, boost phase of flight, is being relegated to a technology demonstration status. A planned five-aircraft purchase by the Air Force has also been deferred, and the program is now solely focused on attempting to shoot down a target missile during a test the MDA has scheduled for late 2008. Prime contractor Boeing is developing the first prototype 747-400 transport aircraft that will be used in the 2008 test. The ABL is mounted on the aircraft and uses a chemical oxygen-iodine laser, invented by US Air Force laboratories in the 1970s. The program began in 1996 with an expectation that the ABL would be fielded by 2006. This has now been stretched to 2010 and projected development costs have risen from $2.5 billion to almost $4 billion. According to the MDA FY-07 Budget Overview, future spending plans for the ABL are:

Sea-Based X-Band Radar Arrives in Hawaii

The Sea-Based X-Band Radar (SBX) has arrived at Pearl Harbour, Hawaii, on route for its eventual home port at Adak, a small island in Alaska. A major sensor for the MDA's ground-based midcourse defence program (GMD), the SBX is expected to provide the capability to track ballistic missiles and their warheads, discriminate among various objects in flight, and provide data for intercepting targets and their destruction. The SBX is expected to be able to operate at sea for extended periods giving it the capability to move throughout any of the world's oceans in support of missile defence testing and defensive operations.

Testing Times: Pentagon and CRS Reports Suggest Diminishing Confidence in Missile Defence

A new report from the Pentagon's chief weapons tester, acting Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, David Duma, says testing of the rudimentary system in place in Alaska and California "suggests" - but doesn't demonstrate - that it "may have some inherent defensive capability" to intercept North Korean missiles. Last year's report was less tentative, saying the system "should have some limited capability." There have been no intercept tests for almost a year after two failures - one in February 2005 and another in December 2004 - when interceptor missiles never left their silos because of faulty computer software. Boeing lost $107 million in bonuses as a result of the two failed intercept tests. Duma also declared that future flight tests will also "lack operational realism." Of the four flight tests programmed for 2006, only the last two will attempt intercepts. A 19 January 2006 Bloomberg News Service article summarized the Duma report: "The Pentagon's testing office has less confidence today than it did a year ago in the nation's fledgling missile defence."

A Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, published on 18 January 2006, confirms Duma's negative assessment: The report, "Kinetic Energy Kill for Ballistic Missile Defense: A Status Overview," notes the "mostly unsuccessful history of the effort," and concludes that there is no "conclusive evidence of a learning curve, such as increased success over time relative to the tests of the concept 20 years ago." The report is available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL33240.pdf.

Capitol Hill War Game

In mid January, the MDA sponsored a series of unclassified one-hour long interactive computer simulations (or war games) for the media and Congressional staff, to "showcase" US ballistic missile defence capabilities. The computer simulation gave participants the virtual experience of responding to a ballistic missile attack by playing one of several different roles in the missile defence command and control structure. At each war game senior MDA officials were on hand to answer questions and guide participants through the exercise.

For News-Miner Washington Bureau reporter Sam Bishop's account of playing the war game, see: News-Miner.com. Member of Congress, Rep. Rush Holt, circulated a "Dear Colleague" letter in response to the computer simulated war game. The following is an extract from the letter:

"As a physicist, I know that what comes out of computer simulations is only as good as the assumptions put into them. And the fact is that because of the extremely limited testing program of U.S. missile defence systems, little or nothing is known about the value of key parameters that need to be put into such simulations. So the values used in the simulation are not based on real data-yet they determine what comes out of the simulation.

This should give you considerable scepticism about what these simulations may be showing about actual defence capabilities......

....The MDA Capitol Hill Wargames may be a useful learning experience. But to understand what they say about the real world, you should be sure to ask some questions about the assumptions that go into them. Two critical questions are:

• What kill probability is assumed for interceptors, and on what is that value based?
• Are the attacking missiles assumed to use countermeasures, such as decoys? If so, what kind? If not, why not?

Assumptions about countermeasures are key since even an interceptor that might have a high kill probability against a missile without countermeasures could have a very low kill probability against the same missile with technologically simple countermeasures. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that it defies logic to assume that a country that could build a long-range missile and warhead would not equip it with countermeasures to make it effective, since the technology to do so would also be within its capability."

Expansion of US Military Role in Space Anticipated

At a forum organised by the Center for Media and Security, Air Force Col. Anthony Russo, head of the U.S. Strategic Command's space division, told reporters that the military's role in deterring attacks on commercial satellites is set to be strengthened as part of "the first broad overhaul of U.S. space policy in a decade". Russo also said the new policy "could be announced within months" and "did not rule out weapons in space". Currently, no known weapons specifically designed to apply force are stationed in space - an absence that Russia, China and many others strongly support. See Reuters article, 6 February 2006

CANADA

Will Missile Defence Decision Be Overturned?

Will the newly elected minority Conservative government undo the previous Liberal government's decision on missile defence? Former Prime Minister Paul Martin announced in February 2005 that Canada would not participate in the US program. However, during the recent election, Conservative party leader Stephen Harper pledged to reopen talks if they were requested by the Bush administration, and to bring any agreement before Parliament for a free vote. All three opposition parties oppose missile defence, which indicates that the Harper government could face a humiliating defeat in a vote.

But Steven Staples, Director of Security Programs at the Polaris Institute, warns that "The danger remains that Canada could become involved, through either existing NORAD agreements or a new agreement". For further details see Institute's assessment of the election results, "The New Peace Lobby: A Five-Point Action Plan for the 39th Parliament", which can be downloaded at www.polarisinstitute.org

JAPAN

US to Deploy Radar System Within Six Months

The United States plans to deploy the X-band radar system (an early warning component of ballistic missile interception) in Japan within six months, according to a report in The Daily Yomiuri. The radar deployment is expected to cost between $250 million and $300 million, including the cost of examining potential sites. The Shariki Air Station in Aomori Prefecture is being tipped as the most likely host site. Tokyo and Washington agreed in autumn 2005 to station an X-band radar system in Japan.

RUSSIA

Back to the Future with a New Generation of ICBMs

President Putin announced at a news conference (reported by Associated Press on 31 January) that Russia had successfully developed and tested a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with multi-targeted independent vehicle (MIRV) warheads that could penetrate any ABM system in the world, including the US system. "Russia ... has tested missile systems that no one in the world has," the ITAR-Tass, Interfax and RIA Novosti news agencies quoted Putin as saying. He also said that the new missiles were capable of changing both the altitude and the direction of their flight, making it impossible for a missile defence system to intercept them. The new warheads, designed to zigzag on their approach to targets, could be fitted to new land-based Topol-M missiles and the prospective Bulava missiles, now under development, but many analysts voice doubts about Russia's ability to deploy such weapons anytime soon.

New Early Warning Missile Defence Base To Be Built in South of Russia

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov announced that Russia will build a new early warning missile defence station in the south of the country in order to decrease its dependence on radar systems based in other nations such as Azerbaijan and Ukraine. (MosNews 1 February 2006).

INDIA

Latest Nuclear Missile Ready for Launch

In early February, India announced it had completed all tests and was ready to deploy its latest nuclear-tipped missile, Agni-III (Fire). The Agni III missile, which can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, is said to be capable of striking targets at a distance of 3,000 kilometres (1,860 miles). A 1,000-kilometre range cruise missile is also under development, and a ship-launched variant of the 300-kilometre range BrahMos cruise missile, which has been jointly developed by India and Russia, is about to be deployed. (Agence France Press.)

India initiated its missile development programme in 1983 and so far has built an array of systems including the battlefield missile Prithvi (Earth) which can carry a 500-kilogram nuclear warhead and other tactical missiles.

Indo-Israel Cooperation on Maritime Missile Defences

Defense News (February 1) reports that, as part of their evolving strategic ties, India and Israel have agreed to the joint development and production of the "Barak" anti-missile system. As part of the deal, India's official Defence Research and Development Organization and Israel's state-run Israel Aircraft Industries will develop six long-range "Barak" systems for new warships recently acquired by the Indian navy.

India and Pakistan Agree Flight Test Notification Agreement

After extended negotiations, India and Pakistan reached agreement in October 2005 to pre-notify and to follow certain guidelines for their flight tests of ballistic missiles. The Stimson Center has published the text of this unclassified agreement. The Stimson Center has also posted a chronology of events and confidence building measures (CBMs) reached between Pakistan and India, dating back to the 1988 agreement not to attack each other's nuclear facilities.

Publications

The Missile Defense Agency Fiscal Year 2007 (FY07) Budget Estimate Overview

Congressional Research Service, Kinetic Energy Kill for Ballistic Missile Defense: A Status Overview, January 18, 2006

Matthew Hoey, Research Associate, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, Military Space Systems: The Road Ahead, Presentation at the Symposium on Non-proliferation and Disarmament-The Way Forward, Co-sponsored by MIT and the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, 22 October 2005.

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