MISSILE DEFENCE UPDATE

20 January 2006

In this issue:

• United States
  • US Spending on Missile Defence
  • US GMD System: 10th Interceptor in the Ground and First Operational Launch in More Than a Year
  • Back-to-the Future: The High Altitude Airship
  • MDA Seeking Responsibility for Cruise Missile Defence
  • Space Weapons
  • New Satellite Database
• Israel
  • Arrow Interceptor Test
• Japan
  • Missile Defence Pact with United States
• Poland
  • Also Keen to Partner the United States?
• Publications

Past editions of Missile Defence Update are available at: http://www.basicint.org/update/mdu.htm.

UNITED STATES

US Spending on Missile Defence

During December the US Congress completed work on the Fiscal-Year 2006 Defense Authorization Bill (H.R. 1815/S. 1042). $7.8 billion was approved for research, development, testing and fielding of ballistic missile defence capabilities.

A new report from the US Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans and Alternatives: Detailed Update for Fiscal Year 2006, January 2006, provides an update of past and projected US missile defence spending. Total US investment in missile defence is expected to peak in 2013 at about $15 billion per annum and then decrease, as systems finish with the procurement phase and become operational. If, however, costs grow as they have historically, pursuing the programmes included in CBO's missile defence projection will cost an additional $3 billion a year, on average, peaking at about $19 billion in 2013. http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=7004&sequence=0&from=7

US GMD System: 10th Interceptor in the Ground and First Operational Launch in More Than a Year

In mid December, the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced that it's 10th Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptor had been placed in its silo at Ft. Greely, Alaska. There are now eight interceptors in the ground in Alaska, and two at Vandenberg AFB, California. The interceptors are designed to intercept and destroy long-range ballistic missiles. Ft. Greely is expected to receive another interceptor this month, followed by more throughout the year. However, the MDA have said, "In the interest of operational security, future interceptor emplacements will not be announced". (Defense Daily, 21 December 2005).

In late December, the MDA announced its first successful interceptor launch in more than a year. After two embarrassing back-to-back test failures in February 2005, MDA Director Lt. Gen. Trey Obering hailed the test launch from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean as a "tremendous success". However, the interceptor was launched against a simulated target and no actual intercept was sought. Trials slated for spring 2006 are expected to include a target missile, and further down the road ("within the next three years"), a "salvo test" is planned (firing numerous interceptors against numerous targets simultaneously). (Aviation Week & Space Technology, 19/26 December 2005).

Back-to-the Future: The High Altitude Airship

Lockheed Martin plans to build a 400 ft-long airship prototype that could provide the primary platform for US ballistic and cruise missile defences or a foreign battlefield. The High Altitude Airship (HAA) is expected to operate at 65,000 ft or more and will carry radar, infrared and electro-optical sensors as well as undisclosed weaponry. The MDA is financing the $149.2 million design and test flight contract with Lockheed Martin, and the prototype is expected to fly in 2009. (Aviation Week & Space Technology, 19/26 December 2005).

MDA Seeking Responsibility for Cruise Missile Defence

During the annual Association of the US Army space and missile defense symposium in early December, MDA Director Obering said the agency is thinking about expanding into the cruise missile arena: "I have not been asked or assigned [cruise missile defense] yet, but I believe that the framework is there" to allow MDA to jump into that mission area. Under the January 2002 memorandum from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that set up the MDA, the agency's focus is limited to ballistic missiles. Currently, the Defense Department's Joint Theater Air and Missile Defense Office has responsibility for cruise missile defence programs. Several speakers at the symposium expressed concern about the US' ability to defend against a possible cruise missile threat. Navy Admiral Timothy Keating, the chief of Northern Command, for example, when asked how the cruise missile threat is being handled, responded: "not very well, right now. Today . . . we have a very limited capability to deter a cruise missile attack. Someone [can] pull the tarp off a 110-foot tramp steamer off the coast of Boston and shoots an unguided cruise missile into Boston. Can't do much about it, we want to get better at that". (Inside the Army, 12 December 2005)

Space Weapons

Two articles in the December edition of Arms Control Today examined the hidden dangers of US plans to develop space-based defences, especially space-based missile defences. Such defences are intended to counter the potential threat of an ICBM attack from a country such as North Korea or Iran, neither of which has flight-tested even an intermediate-range missile. Hui Zhang (Action/Reaction: U.S. Space Weaponization and China http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_12/Dec-cvr.asp) points out that US space plans could prompt China to react with several steps that could in turn endanger US security. Rather than moving toward space weaponization, he argues that the United States should sign on to a Russian and Chinese proposal for a treaty banning the weaponization of space. Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr. (Space Weapons and the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_12/Dec-spaceweapons.asp) warns that US space weaponization plans may have another hidden cost: increasing the likelihood of an accidental nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia, which still retain thousands of long-range nuclear weapons. He too urges the negotiation of a treaty banning weapons in outer space.

New Satellite Database

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has released the UCS Satellite Database, a searchable list of over 800 active satellites with detailed information about them. The database

is free and can be downloaded from the UCS website at: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/space_weapons/satellite_database.html

ISRAEL

Arrow Interceptor Test

On 2 December 2005, Israel successfully tested the Arrow missile defence system over the Mediterranean. The Arrow interceptor missile, developed by Israel Aircraft Industries and Boeing, was launched from Palmachim Air Force Base and successfully intercepted a Black Sparrow target missile during the terminal phase of its flight. The Arrow test was a simulated intercept of an incoming Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missile. The Arrow system is expected to operate as the first layer in an Israeli missile defence system. The aim is to provide enough time for a Patriot interceptor to be fired as a secondary defense should the high altitude Arrow fail to intercept an incoming missile. (Ha'aretz, 3 December 2005; Jane's Defence Weekly, 5 December 2005).

JAPAN

Missile Defence Pact with United States

On 29 October 2005, the United States and Japan signed a new defence agreement that includes technology transfer for missile defence. Under the agreement, Japan will deploy an X-band radar system, which is expected to improve target detection, especially cruise missiles. The agreement also calls for the US to "deploy additional complementary capabilities in and around Japan" to support its missile defence operations. (Aviation Week & Space Technology, 7 November 2005).

POLAND

Also Keen to Partner the United States?

According to a report in The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1643499,00.html), Poland's new centre-right government has signalled its eagerness to become the key European partner for the Bush administration's missile defence system. In early November, after winning a vote of confidence in the Polish parliament, the new prime minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, said the Polish authorities were discussing plans with Washington. "This is an important issue for Poland, related to our security and to our cooperation with an important ally," he said. The prime minister told journalists in Warsaw he wanted a national debate on the plans, which include potential radar sites and a missile interceptor site in southern Poland. But Europeans opposed to US national missile defence plans are likely to be concerned - not least by the fact that interceptors launched out of Poland would have to overfly other European countries and that lower stages of the interceptors would fall there.

Publications

US Military Space Systems: The Road Ahead, Matthew Hoey, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies http://idds.org/25thpapers.html Presentation at a Symposium on Nonproliferation and Disarmament -The Way Forward, 21-22 October 2005, at MIT.

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