AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

26 February 2008

No. 30: 8 - 25 February 2008

If you would like to receive this update, please email basic-wash at basicint.org with the phrase "subscribe to Afghanistan Update" in the subject line. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback of how useful you find this update. Please contact Chris Lindborg by email at clindborg at basicint.org with comments or suggestions.

Previous editions of BASIC's Afghanistan Update are available here.

Summary:

• Gates urges allies to send more troops to Afghanistan
• Canada nears compromise on Afghanistan
• Paddy Ashdown calls for overhaul of NATO strategy
• 140 killed in spate of suicide attacks in S. Afghanistan
• Pakistan envoy to Kabul missing

Gates urges allies to send more troops to Afghanistan
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates renewed calls last week for NATO allies to send more combat troops and trainers to Afghanistan. Speaking at the 44^th annual Munich Security Conference, Gates urged NATO members to assume a greater share of the burden in Afghanistan’s volatile south, warning that NATO could not survive as a “two-tier alliance of those willing to fight and those who are not.” Gates acknowledged that popular opposition to the war in Iraq undercut support for allied efforts in Afghanistan, but urged skeptical European publics to consider the consequences of failure for domestic security concerns. “I am concerned that many people on this continent may not comprehend the magnitude of the direct threat to European security,” Gates said. “The threat posed by violent Islamic extremism is real, and it is not going to go away.” Gates called for greater coordination between military and civilian operations, common training standards for soldiers and civilians deploying into Afghanistan, and the appointment of a senior European civilian to coordinate all non-military international assistance.

Canada nears compromise on Afghanistan
Yielding to opposition demands for a firm end date, Canada’s conservative government announced last week that it would withdraw its 2500 combat troops from southern Afghanistan as of July 2011. The parliamentary motion, which is under debate this week, will also recommend that the combat mission refocus on training the Afghan National Army and police, civilian protection and reconstruction efforts. “We welcome this new motion that is based on our Liberal motion,” opposition leader Stephane Dion said in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. “We'll look if we need clarification and amendments and we will participate in this debate."

In related news, France continues to weigh the possibility of a troop surge in Afghanistan, according to French foreign ministry officials. On 11 February, French daily Le Figaro outlined four options currently under consideration by President Nicholas Sarkozy: augment France’s presence in Kabul, where French personnel currently contribute to Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams (OMLT) integrated within Afghan units; deploy French reinforcements to Helmand province; augment France’s presence in the southern region around Kandahar; or dispatch troops to the east, near the tribal regions of Waziristan. President Sarkozy will announce his final decision at NATO’s upcoming summit in Bucharest on 2-4 April.

Germany held discussions last week on its future role in Afghanistan. The debate took place amid speculation that Germany is considering an increase in its troop levels in Afghanistan when the current mandate expires in October. With 3,500 troops stationed in the relatively peaceful north, the German government has come under increasing pressure from its allies to expand its parliamentary mandate and deploy more troops to southern Afghanistan. On 18 February, Chancellor Angela Merkel denied rumors that Germany will change or expand its mission in Afghanistan.

Paddy Ashdown calls for overhaul of NATO strategy
In an op-ed published on 12 February in the Financial Times, former U.N High Representative in Bosnia Paddy Ashdown called for an overhaul of NATO counterinsurgency and reconstruction strategy in Afghanistan. Citing failure as a “real possibility,” Ashdown articulated a three-pronged strategy to shore up support for President Karzai’s government: ensure military and human security through closer civil-military cooperation; strengthen the mechanisms of Afghan governance through a bottom-up approach that targets Afghanistan’s tribal structure; and consolidate the rule of law through police, judicial and security sector reform.

Over 140 killed in spate of suicide attacks in S. Afghanistan
Over 140 people were killed in a spate of suicide attacks in southern Afghanistan last week. On 17 February in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, a suicide bomber killed 100 people and injured dozens more in the deadliest suicide attack since the Taliban's ouster in 2001. The attack took place during a dog fighting contest and claimed the lives of Abdul Hakim Jan, a prominent anti-Taliban leader, thirty-five fighters from his militia, and at least six children. The Taliban, which had banned dog fighting under their regime, has yet to claim responsibility for the attack.

On 18 February, at least 37 people were killed and 30 injured when a vehicle-born improvised explosive device detonated near a Canadian military convoy in Spin Boldak, a town 100 km southeast of Kandahar city. Three Canadian ISAF soldiers were among the injured. The following day, a car bomb exploded near a police compound in the city of Kandahar, killing one person and injuring four. As the Associated Press reports, the back-to-back targeting of civilians could signal a shift in tactics on the part of the Taliban to further undermine the central government.

Afghan authorities have since arrested nine local men in connection with the recent bombing attacks. The governor of Kandahar province, Asadullah Khalid, has yet to confirm whether the men are Taliban insurgents, but urged investigators to continue the search for other suspects who remain at large.

Pakistan envoy to Kabul missing
Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Tariq Azizuddin, went missing on 11 February as he was crossing over with his driver and security guard from the northwestern city of Peshawar en route to Kabul. Security forces have since launched a wide-ranging search for Azizuddin in the Khyber Agency, a mountainous tribal region where Taliban activity has been on the rise. Government officials declined to confirm whether Azizuddin had been abducted by the Pakistani Taliban in exchange for the release of Mansour Dadullah, a top Afghan Taliban commander captured on 11 February after a gun-battle with Pakistani security forces in the southern province of Baluchistan.

In other developments, the Afghan Defense Ministry reported last Thursday that U.S.-led coalition troops had killed 30 suspected Taliban militants and detained 11 in a five-hour operation north of Musa Qala. The coalition, reporting no casualties, seized over 1000 pounds of heroin and an arms cache during the operation.

Andrew Imbrie, BASIC

Please note: BASIC does not necessarily endorse comments, editorials, or reports listed in this update.

Stories and Links:

NATO may follow if Canada exits, AFP, 26/02
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4mnjEaMsbFDipu18x3IsQL76Zjg

U.S. General says attacks down sharply in eastern Afghanistan, Canadian Press, 25/02
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5j_FRvzFRfdnstlLXP4R002Mp1v9w

Europe warned of Taliban return, Cynthia Banham, Sydney Morning Herald, 25/02
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/europe-warned-of-taliban-return/2008/02/24/1203788147685.html

U.S. moves to expand its role in Pakistan, Farah Stockman, Boston Globe, 25/02
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2008/02/25/us_moves_to_expand_its_role_in_pakistan/

Nature of conflict in Afghanistan changing, Gates says, Fred W. Baker III, Press Media Wire, 24/02
http://pressmediawire.com/article.cfm?articleID=5478

U.S.-led forces targeting Taliban kill insurgents, women, child in southern Afghanistan, AP, 24/02
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/02/24/news/Afghan-Violence.php 

Violent bombings, kidnapping herald volatile 2008 for Afghanistan, China View, 22/02 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/22/content_7650889.htm

NATO chief warns of threats to Afghan mission, AP, 22/02 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/world/asia/22afghan.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin

Australian troops in Afghanistan “long term”: Minister, AFP, 21/02              http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gqOtNIpJyMXThl3XJS4JSQH8K0UA

Czech Prime Minister to visit Ottawa for talks on Afghanistan, Canadian Press, 20/02 http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jo7yvQlRC_dQKva3ot_Tlh8trIMw

Mullen: Marines could have greater role in Afghanistan, Mark Walker, North Country Times, 20/02 http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/02/20/news/top_stories/1_20_122_19_08.txt

Australia to send military trainers to Afghanistan, Daily Times, 20/02 http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008\02\20\story_20-2-2008_pg4_20

More Pakistanis flee to Afghanistan, Pauline Jelinek, AFP, 18/02 http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gqtS7ARpk29F4I7Kpx5_-ZLyCnyAD8UTJOEG0

Troops in Afghanistan to 2015, Norway Says, United Press International, 18/02 http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/02/18/troops_in_afghanistan_to_2015_norway_says/5577/

Afghanistan: Analysts Mixed On Pakistani Elections' Impact On Regional Security, Abubakar Siddique, Radio Free Europe, 16/02                                              
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/02/96d49208-e81d-4a7f-a9ee-1256a7f21fbe.html

U.S. Military deaths in Afghanistan at 415, AP, 16/02
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g3dO01zk6vBUdavNiW-Zfe-SJuvQD8UR40580

Afghanistan, Iran to meet on refugee expulsions, Daily Times, 15/02
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C02%5C15%5Cstory_15-2-2008_pg4_18

Death toll from bitter Afghan winter climbs to 926: official, Canadian Press, 15/02 http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfDKoQr5Qj0UfWyZh8w1_V8j-GnQ

U.S. lawmakers address fear of failed state in Afghanistan, Robert Raffaele, VOA News, 15/02 http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-02-15-voa24.cfm

Italy questions its involvement in Afghanistan, Courrier International, 15/02 http://europe.courrierinternational.com/eurotopics/article.asp?langue=uk&publication=14/02/2008&cat=POLITICS&pi=0

Afghanistan’s Refugee Crisis ignored, Richard Norton-Taylor, The Guardian, 13/02 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/13/afghanistan

Australian criticizes NATO over Afghanistan strategy, Tim Johnston, IHT, 12/02 http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/12/asia/australia.php

Embassy in Kabul evacuated, Aftenposten, 11/02
http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article2248982.ece

U.S. seeks Turkey’s help in Afghanistan, United Press International, 10/02
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/02/10/us_seeks_turkeys_help_in_afghanistan/8610/

Editorials, Transcripts and Reports:

Afghanistan: America wrong, Europe right, William M. Arkin, Washington Post, 25/02 http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2008/02/afghanistan_america_wrong_euro.html?nav=rss_blog

Slipping into darkness, Harlan Ullman, The Washington Times, 20/02 http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080220/EDITORIAL09/259527303

NATO under the gun, Middle East Times, 19/02 http://www.metimes.com/Editorial/2008/02/19/editorial_nato_under_the_gun/7340/

Hearts and minds on the Durand Line, Ashley Bommer, Washington Post, 18/02
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/17/AR2008021701735.html

NATO should not offer a free ride to parasites, Telegraph, 17/02 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/02/17/dl1701.xml

Afghanistan: troubled and troubling, Najmuddin A. Shaikh, Daily Times, 14/02, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C02%5C14%5Cstory_14-2-2008_pg3_4 

Detention in Afghanistan: The need for an integrated plan, Ashley Deeks, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 14/02
http://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_progj&task=view&id=1153

NATO’s Afghan Stumbles, Michael J. Gerson, Washington Post, 13/02 http://www.cfr.org/publication/15503/natos_afghan_stumbles.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2F263%2Fasia

Al Qaeda is not interested in Afghanistan, Rediff, 13/02
http://in.rediff.com/cms/print.jsp?docpath=/news/2008/feb/13inter.htm

Afghanistan troops: Gates appeals directly to European publics at Munich, Richard Weitz, World Politics Review, 12/02                                                                      
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=1593

NATO explores solutions to airlift shortfall in Afghanistan, Jane’s Information Group, 11/02 http://www.janes.com/news/defence/air/idr/idr080211_1_n.shtml

A growing rift, William Pfaff, IHT, 11/02                         
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/11/opinion/edpfaff.php

NATO at twilight, Andrew J. Bacevich, Los Angeles Times, 11/02 
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-bacevich11feb11,0,4434687.story

Afghanistan—Decision point 2008, Senlis Council, February 2008
http://www.senliscouncil.net/modules/publications/Decision_Point

BASIC's work is made possible by the generous support of our donors: the Ploughshares Fund, the Ford Foundation, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Rockefeller Family Associates, and individual contributors to BASIC. We are grateful to all of them for their support.