AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

8 February 2008

No. 29: 25 January - 7 February 2008

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Summary:

• Independent reports paint grim portrait of progress in Afghanistan
• Pressure mounts as NATO allies weigh troop commitments
• Top Al-Qaeda commander killed during U.S. air strike
• Search continues for new U.N. envoy in Afghanistan
• Afghan-British relations sour over secret U.K. Taliban plan

Independent reports paint grim portrait of progress in Afghanistan
The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing last week on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. The hearing came amid a flurry of new reports offering a bleak assessment of progress in Afghanistan six years after U.S. forces first toppled the Taliban government. "Afghanistan stands at a crossroads," concludes the Afghanistan Study Group, an independent report co-chaired by retired Marine Corps General James L. Jones and former U.N. Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering. "The progress achieved after six years of international engagement is under serious threat from resurgent violence, weakening international resolve, mounting regional challenges and a growing lack of confidence on the part of the Afghan people about the future direction of their country." The Atlantic Council report was similarly stark in its assessment of the conflict, warning that "urgent changes are needed now to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a failing or failed state." Both reports cited the need for a more coordinated approach, facilitated by the appointment of an U.N. High Commissioner, a comprehensive campaign plan and strategy, an increase in NATO force levels and military equipment, and a more holistic counternarcotics policy.

Senior administration officials defended themselves against the findings of the reports. Defense Secretary Robert Gates assessed the security situation in Afghanistan as "good," although he did acknowledge the need to better coordinate civil reconstruction and economic development efforts. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Richard Boucher, also offered a more optimistic assessment and cautioned against a "snapshot" view of civil sector reform in Afghanistan.

Pressure mounts as NATO allies weigh troop commitments
Ahead of an informal meeting of NATO defense ministers in Vilnius 7-8 February, Poland announced that it will augment its contributions in Afghanistan by 400 soldiers and eight helicopters, two of which will be made available to Canadian forces in the south. "We are also increasing our presence, concentrating our contingent and moving towards where the Canadians are," Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland's Foreign Minister, said. "Actually, our special forces [are] already in Kandahar with the Canadians." Canada has threatened to curtail its mission unless it secures new, medium-lift helicopters, high performance unmanned aerial vehicles, and at least 1,000 more troops from NATO allies.

In response to an official request from NATO, Germany has agreed to field a rapid reaction force of 250 soldiers in northern Afghanistan to replace a Norwegian contingent that leaves in July. Defense Minister Franz Josef was quick to emphasize that German soldiers would remain stationed in the north of Afghanistan, despite a request from U.S. Defense Secretary Gates for greater participation in the volatile southern region of the country.

In related news, the Belgian government announced plans to deploy 140 more troops and four F-16 planes to join NATO's force in Afghanistan. The deployment, which will begin in September and last four months, will comprise 100 Belgian troops to reinforce Dutch troops stationed in Uruzgan province, twenty troops to defend Kabul Airport, and twenty military instructors to train Afghan military personnel. The deployment will bring to 480 the number of Belgian soldiers in the country, although this number is expected to fall to 260 by the end of the year.

The British will also redouble their efforts in Afghanistan, supplying extra armoured vehicles and new Merlin helicopters to the 16 Air Assault Brigade scheduled to take over in April from the existing U.K. infantry brigade based in Helmand province. The British move coincided with a visit to London by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice where she held crisis talks with U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Foreign Secretary David Miliband on burden-sharing in Afghanistan. Rice and Miliband followed this meeting with an unannounced visit to southern Afghanistan where they met with commanders and soldiers at Regional Command South at Kandahar airfield.

Top Al-Qaeda commander killed during U.S. air strike
One of Al-Qaeda's top commanders in Afghanistan, Abu Laith al-Libi, was killed last week according to western intelligence officials. Libi, a Libyan national linked to the Fighting Islamic Group in Libya (FIGL), was considered to be behind the bombing of the U.S. base at Bagram while Vice President Cheney was visiting last February and was among America's 12 "most wanted" terrorists in Afghanistan. Reports suggest that Libi and 13 other foreign militants were killed during a U.S. air strike in Pakistan's North Waziristan region early last week.

In other developments, Taliban Chief Mullah Omar recently dismissed Baitullah Mehsud as chief of the Pakistani Taliban for fighting against the Pakistan Army instead of NATO forces. "The Afghan front has been quiet as Taliban and al-Qaeda militants have been heavily engaged in fighting security forces in Pakistan's tribal regions," the Asia Times Online reported. "But now Taliban leader Mullah Omar has put his foot down and reset the goals for the Taliban: their primary task is the struggle in Afghanistan, not against the Pakistan state."

Search continues for new U.N. envoy in Afghanistan
Former British Liberal Democrat leader and U.N. High Representative in Bosnia, Paddy Ashdown, withdrew his candidacy last week for the post of U.N. special envoy to Afghanistan. While Ashdown had the strong support of the British government and U.S. State Department, President Karzai raised objections to his nomination at last week's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. On 27 January, Lord Ashdown withdrew his candidacy, citing insufficient support from the Afghan government. "I think there was a sense of mistrust in Afghanistan that Mr. Ashdown might come with some powers that could have been considered as interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs," Ali Ahmad Jalali, Karzai's former interior minister, said. "It was considered that he might have the same level of power that he previously had in Bosnia."

Other candidates for the post include: General John McColl, NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and former British special envoy for counternarcotics in Afghanistan; Kai Eide, a Norwegian diplomat and recognized authority on the Balkans; and Turkey's Hekmat Cetin, former NATO senior civilian representative in Afghanistan.

Afghan-British relations sour over secret U.K. Taliban plan
Afghan-British relations worsened as evidence emerged that the British had initiated plans to build military training camps for former members of the Taliban in Helmand province. The plan, which involved vocational and military training for 2,000 former Taliban fighters, was kept secret from the Afghan government. Details of the plan emerged in December of last year and led to the prompt expulsion of Mervyn Patterson, former senior advisor with the U.N. Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, and Michael Semple, former deputy head of the EU's mission in Afghanistan. Afghan officials say anger at the plan helped to derail the candidacy of Paddy Ashdown, former U.N. High Representative to Bosnia, for the post of U.N. special envoy to Afghanistan.

Andrew Imbrie, BASIC

Please note: BASIC does not necessarily endorse comments, editorials, or reports listed in this update.

Stories and Links:

Another huge opium harvest in Afghanistan, Kevin Whitelaw, U.S. News and World Report, 7/02
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/news-desk/2008/2/6/another-huge-opium-harvest-in-afghanistan.html

NATO chief opens alliance meeting with warning on Afghanistan, VOA News, 7/02
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-02-07-voa35.cfm

NATO Defense Ministers' meeting fails to procure troops for Afghanistan, China View, 7/02
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/07/content_7581080.htm

Afghanistan and NATO: Where the sniping has to stop, The Economist, 7/02
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10651794

U.S. deaths in Afghanistan, Region, AP, 6/02
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g3dO01zk6vBUdavNiW-Zfe-SJuvQD8UL5NEG1

1000 troops going to Afghanistan, AP, 6/02
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gMAdos5-3k_qUdadQ8jNYl4mKpOg

Time runs out for an Afghan held by the U.S., Carlotta Gall, New York Times, 5/02 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/05/world/asia/05gitmo.html?ex=1202878800&en=79a15778793b9def&ei=5070&emc=eta1

Afghanistan needs NATO plan: Fitzgibbon, The Age, 5/02
http://news.theage.com.au/afghanistan-needs-nato-plan-fitzgibbon/20080205-1qa0.html

Trying to pit Taliban against Taliban: paper, DAWN (Pakistan), 5/02
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/05/top13.htm

Afghan air strike kills eight, Sharafuddin Sharafyar, Reuters, 4/02
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKSP11633420080204

U.S. strike on Libi seen as limited success, Daily Times (Pakistan), 3/02
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008\02\03\story_3-2-2008_pg1_7

NATO says insurgency is not spreading in Afghanistan, International Herald Tribune, 3/02
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/02/03/asia/AS-GEN-Afghan-NATO.php

In the dark: Afghanistan's tribal complexity, The Economist, 2/02
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10608929

Friendly fire in Afghanistan: The British Army, The Economist, 2/02
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10609086&fsrc=RSS

Canada takes command of troops in southern Afghanistan, Canwest News service, 2/02
http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=d553e70c-bc3c-4194-a599-fb5213a74a98&k=2652

Afghanistan Still In Trouble: Boucher, Anwar Iqbal, DAWN, 1/02
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/01/top16.htm

Afghan Suicide Blasts Claim 7 Lives, AP via CNN, 31/01
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/31/afghan.attack/index.html

India has a constructive role to play in Afghanistan, Rediff, 31/01
http://in.rediff.com/news/2008/jan/31inter.htm

Suicide attack, roadside bombing kill 4 in S. Afghanistan, China View, 30/01
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/6348174.html

U.S. Ambassador questions Iranian interests in Afghanistan, AFP, 30/01
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080130/pl_afp/afghanistaniranuspolitics_080130152258

U.S. homes in on militants in Pakistan, Syed Saleem Shahzad, Asia Times Online, 30/01
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JA30Df02.html

We don't need an envoy with unlimited authority: Hamidzada, Zubair Babakarkhil, Pajhwok Afghan News, 29/01
http://www.pajhwok.com/viewstory.asp?lng=eng&id=49290

Bush to seek $70 bln in partial 2009 war funding, Andrew Gray, Reuters, 28/01
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2846780020080128

Canada halts Afghan prisoner exchange, Dan Karpenchuk, Radio Netherlands, 28/01
http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/080128-afghan-prisoners

NATO needs more intel on Afghanistan, Lolita C. Baldor and Robert Burns, AP, 28/01
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iWxiu65iLP4CvDJ7BEsBOx-u_vdwD8UF5OSG0

Editorials, Transcripts and Reports:

Afghanistan: The need for international resolve, International Crisis Group, Asia Report No. 145, 6/02
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/south_asia/145_afghanistan___the_need_for_international_resolve.pdf

The war that can bring neither peace nor freedom, Seumas Milne, The Guardian, 5/02
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2252640,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

Counter-insurgency: Lessons from Baghdad, Christopher Sands, National Post, 4/02
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/02/04/christopher-sands-on-counter-insurgency-lessons-from-baghdad.aspx

NATO's Afghan test, Financial Times, 3/02
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31d32e7c-d281-11dc-8636-0000779fd2ac.html

The NATO emerging in Afghanistan, Victoria Nuland, The Washington Post, 1/02
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/31/AR2008013102545.html

The Afghan-Pakistan War: Threat Developments, Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, 31/01 http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4313/

Early Warning, William M. Arkin, The Washington Post, 30/01 http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2008/01/dont_open_a_third_front_in_pak.html?nav=rss_blog

Generous U.S. support aids millions of hungry poor, Relief Web, 30/01
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/PANA-7BCHD6?OpenDocument&cc=afg

Afghanistan Study Group Report, Co-Chairs: Gen. James L. Jones (USMC, ret.) and Amb. Thomas R. Pickering, Center for the Study of the Presidency, 30/01
http://www.thepresidency.org/pubs/Afghan_Study_Group_final.pdf

Lull after Musa Qala may be temporary, Relief Web, 28/01
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/SODA-7BB7TK?OpenDocument

Tinkering in Afghanistan, Lawrence Korb and Caroline Wadhams, Boston Globe, 27/01
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/01/27/us_tinkering_in_afghanistan/

Linking Security and Development in State Building: Recent Lessons from Afghanistan, Wilson Center, January 2008
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1411&fuseaction=topics.publications&group_id=215038

Saving Afghanistan: An Appeal and Plan for Urgent Action, The Atlantic Council of the United States, January 2008
http://www.acus.org/docs/012808-AfghanistanbriefwoSAG.pdf

Saving Afghanistan, Barnett R. Rubin, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2008
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070101faessay86105/barnett-r-rubin/saving-afghanistan.html

BASIC's work is made possible by the generous support of our donors: the Ploughshares Fund, the Ford Foundation, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, the Marmott Trust, Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation, Rockefeller Family Associates, and individual contributors to BASIC. We are grateful to all of them for their support.