AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

25 January 2008

No. 28: 11 - 24 January 2008

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Summary:

• United States to send 3,200 more troops to Afghanistan
• Gates' comments spark tension among NATO allies
• Canada weighs redeployment in Afghanistan
• Paddy Ashdown to become new U.N. Envoy in Afghanistan
• Eight killed in attack at luxury hotel in Kabul
• Washington considers enhanced role for U.S. forces to target Al-Qaeda in Pakistan
• Afghan "Peace Convoy" seeks negotiations with Taliban rebels
  

United States to send 3,200 more troops to Afghanistan
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates approved on Tuesday a one-time, seven-month deployment of additional units to counter an expected spring offensive by the Taliban and to assist in training Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The additional U.S. forces will comprise a 2,200-personnel Marine expeditionary unit, deployed under ISAF command in southern Helmand province, and a Marine battalion under the auspices of Operation Enduring Freedom. Once complete, the deployment will bring to 30,000 the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the highest level since the 2001 invasion.

The Pentagon was quick to emphasize the limited nature of the deployment, adding that allies would be expected to backfill U.S. forces when they leave at the end of the year. The topic will likely be at the center of NATO's upcoming summit in Bucharest in April, where diplomats are expected to negotiate a revised political strategy on Afghanistan.

Gates' comments spark tension among NATO allies
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates levied an unusual public criticism of NATO forces in Afghanistan last Wednesday, claiming that many were ill-trained for counterinsurgency operations. Gates criticized NATO forces for their continued use of heavy weaponry, including airstrikes, in Afghanistan's south and urged comparison with the successful U.S. counterinsurgency program in the east under Army Maj. Gen. David Rodriguez. British troops in particular have come under criticism from U.S. commanders for their backing of local militias and failure to retain control over areas taken from the Taliban.

European diplomats have been quick to respond to Gates' comments, citing their increased troop commitments to Afghanistan over the past year and successful peacekeeping ventures in more peaceful areas of the country. The rise in violence, they argue, derives from a flawed U.S. strategy that diverted resources from Afghanistan to Iraq. Faced with mounting criticism, Gates has since qualified his earlier comments, stressing that "the alliance as a whole has not trained for counterinsurgency operations even though individual countries have considerable expertise at and success in this arena."

Canada weighs redeployment in Afghanistan
In a recent submission to a government appointed panel on Canada's future role in Afghanistan, Liberal leaders Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff urged the minority Conservative government to end the country's 2,500-member combat mission in Kandahar as scheduled in February 2009. Mr. Dion advised the government to reduce its troop deployments and focus on civilian protection, reconstruction, and training for the Afghan National Army and police. The panel, established by Prime Minister Stephen Harper last October, delivered its final report on 22 January. The panel recommended that Canada continue its military mission in Kandahar beyond February 2009 provided that it secures new, medium-lift helicopters, high performance unmanned aerial vehicles, and additional support from other NATO countries.

In other developments, Germany is preparing to send upwards of 250 combat troops to Afghanistan to replace a Norwegian contingent currently under German control. Rainer Arnold, defense spokesman for the governing Social Democratic Party, told last Wednesday's Passauer Neue Presse newspaper that the troops represent a "new quality" of German engagement, better equipped and trained, which could be deployed to "hunt terrorists" in addition to conducting stabilization and reconstruction tasks.

On 11 January, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's ruling coalition pushed a bill through parliament that allows the resumption of Japan's anti-terror naval operations in the Indian Ocean despite opposition from the Democratic Party of Japan. Halted about three months ago, the mission resumed on 24 January with the scaled-down mandate of refueling and supplying water to coalition vessels engaged in non-military operations related to Afghanistan.

Paddy Ashdown to become new U.N. envoy in Afghanistan
Paddy Ashdown, the former leader of Britain's Liberal Democrats and U.N. High Representative in Bosnia from 2002-2006, is set to become the United Nation's new envoy to Afghanistan. Equipped with a broader mandate than his predecessor, Tom Koenigs, Lord Ashdown is expected to improve coordination among the various missions and multilateral agencies engaged in military and development work in Afghanistan.

General David D. McKiernan, Commander of American Army forces in Europe, is likely to assume command of NATO forces in Afghanistan. Formerly a senior officer with allied forces in Bosnia and U.S. Army Chief of Operations during the ground attack that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, Gen. McKiernan will replace Gen. Dan K. McNeill in June.

Eight killed in attack at luxury hotel in Kabul
In a significant change in tactics, four militants with purported connections to a Pakistan-based Taliban commander stormed a luxury hotel in Kabul on 14 January, killing at least eight people. Among those killed were a Norwegian journalist, a U.S. citizen, a Philippine employee of the hotel, and five security guards. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, threatening similar violence against other civilian soft targets. "If it turns out this was the Taliban, and if it turns out their target was civilians," said Adrian Edwards, a U.N. spokesman, "it would be a very worrying development."

In related news, hundreds of armed militants captured and then abandoned on 16 January a border fort in the South Waziristan tribal area. Pakistani authorities have linked the attack to followers of Baitullah Mehsud, leader of an umbrella group of Taliban sympathizers in Waziristan and alleged mastermind behind the assassination of former premier Benazir Bhutto.

Washington considers enhanced role for U.S. forces to target Al-Qaeda in Pakistan
Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf reacted strongly last week to reports that the United States is considering an expansion of CIA and military authority to conduct covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan. The debate comes on the heels of intelligence reports showing evidence of increased Al Qaeda and Taliban activity in these areas, prompting several senior U.S. administration officials to call for a "broad reassessment" of U.S. strategy. Musharraf made clear that any unauthorized incursion by U.S. forces against Al Qaeda in Pakistan would be considered an "invasion" and cautioned against the notion that U.S. forces would operate effectively in the "mountainous terrain." State Department Deputy Spokesman, Tom Casey, said he was unaware of "any proposal from any US official arguing for unilateral military action in Pakistan."

Afghan "Peace Convoy" seeks negotiations with Taliban rebels
A council comprised of provincial governors, tribal chiefs and lawmakers met with President Karzai last Sunday and gained his approval to hold talks with elements of the Taliban insurgency. Known as the "Peace Convoy," the council will hold talks with local residents and Taliban field commanders in eastern and southern Afghanistan with a view to addressing their grievances and urging them to play a role in the government. Noor Agha Zwak, spokesman for the governor leading the effort, underlined that the "talks will be with those Taliban who have no links with al Qaeda," thereby excluding such leaders as Mullah Mohammad Omar and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Andrew Imbrie, BASIC

Please note: BASIC does not necessarily endorse comments, editorials, or reports listed in this update.

Stories and Links:

Taliban wield the ax ahead of new battle, Syed Saleem Shahzad, Asia Times, 23/01
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JA24Df03.html

Czech Republic to send more civilian experts to Afghanistan, China View, 19/01
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/19/content_7449711.htm

US to deploy 500 mine-resistant vehicles to Afghanistan, AFP, 19/01
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080119/pl_afp/usiraqafghanistanmilitary_080119182854

Afghanistan: 20 Taliban killed in joint operation, AFP, 19/01
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iL0jGTksGtPBln7hOWDjJofWQX9Q

ANA, ISAF inflict heavy casualties on insurgents in Kunar, ISAF, 19//01
http://www.nato.int/isaf/docu/pressreleases/2008/01-january/pr080119-032.html

France to host international conference on development aid for Afghanistan, AP via The Jerusalem Post, 18/01
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1200572487639&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Afghanistan asks U.S. for more planes, Alalam News Network, 18/01
http://www.alalam.ir/english/en-NewsPage.asp?newsid=031030120080117191524

Norway to increase assistance to Afghanistan, Norway Post, 17/01
http://www.norwaypost.no/cgi-bin/norwaypost/imaker?id=126156

Army Chief may shorten tours in Iraq, Afghanistan by summer, Ann Scott Tyson, The Washington Post, 17/01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/16/AR2008011603789_pf.html

Afghanistan pleased Iranian plan to expel migrant Afghans halted, VOA News, 17/01
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-01-17-voa32.cfm

U.S. vows to help rebuild Musa Qala, Akram Noorzai, Afgha.com, 16/01
http://www.afgha.com/?q=node/5676

Afghanistan: Over 140 killed, dozens injured as winter bites, IRIN News, 16/01
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=76266

Afghan paper slams Browne comments, Sayed Salahuddin, Reuters, 15/01
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKSP1500220080115?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

30 die in fighting on Pakistan border, Guardian, 14/01
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2240581,00.html

Error by allies and 2 clashes kill 15 in South of Afghanistan, Abdul Waheed and Taimoor Shah, The New York Times, 14/01
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/world/asia/14afghan.html?ref=world

U.S. Ambassador urges Afghan authorities to stop poppy cultivation, Ayaz Gul, VOA News, 14/01
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-01-14-voa45.cfm

Afghans take on more of a combat role: NATO, CTV.ca, 14/01
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080114/nato_role_080114/20080114?hub=TopStories

Al Qaeda on rise in Pakistan, UPI, 12/01
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/01/12/report_al-qaida_on_rise_in_pakistan/3810/

Editorials, Transcripts and Reports:

Afghanistan: Europe's Forgotten War, Daniel Korski, European Council on Foreign Relations, 21/01
http://www.ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_afghanistan_europes_forgotten_war/

Fight in Afghanistan, Editorial, The Washington Post, 17/01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/16/AR2008011603521.html

Abandoning Afghanistan, John Turley, National Post, 16/01
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=241043

Civil-Military Relations in Afghanistan: Time for Radical Reform, Kate Clouston, Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, 15/01
http://www.rusi.org/publication/newsbrief/ref:A478CCB3B0164D/

Norway announces 50% increase in assistance to Afghanistan, Relief Web, 15/01
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/PANA-7AVHUY?OpenDocument

Afghans, Report for Duty, Amb. Ronald E. Neumann (Ret.), The New York Times, 14/01
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/opinion/14neumann.html?scp=1&sq=Afghans%2C+Report+for+Duty&st=nyt

More Allied, Not U.S., force key to success in Afghanistan, Sam Brannen, World Politics Review, 14/01
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=1496

Afghanistan Update: Dec 1-31, 2007, CDI, 13/01
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4173&from_page=../index.cfm

Afghanistan: ICRC activities in 2007, Relief Web, 11/01
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/PANA-7ARJRD?OpenDocument

The Netherlands in Afghanistan, Buitenlandse Zaken, January 2008
http://www.minbuza.nl/binaries/en-pdf/afghanistan-pdf/factsheet12_eng_2.pdf

Towards a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World: Renewing Transatlantic Partnership, January 2008
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/080110_grand_strategy.pdf

BASIC's work is made possible by the generous support of our donors: the Ploughshares Fund, the Ford Foundation, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, the Marmott Trust, Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation, Rockefeller Family Associates, and individual contributors to BASIC. We are grateful to all of them for their support.