AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

3 December 2007

No. 25: 16 November - 1 December 2007

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Summary:

• Worries about violence spreading in northern Afghanistan
• Issue of civilian casualties still dogging ISAF; survey of other violence
• Visit by NATO's Secretary General amid pessimistic reports
• Karzai holds out hope for negotiations with Taliban
• Multilateral and national developments; Dutch government extends mission

Worries about violence spreading in northern Afghanistan; follow-up to 6 November suicide bombing
Officials fear that the suicide attack that killed over 70 people near the town of Pul-i-Khumri in Baghlan province (about 90 miles north of Kabul) is a reflection of a wider trend of violence spreading into northern Afghanistan. Although the attack took place on 6 November, it continues to grab headlines as the government attempts to investigate further. Colonel Edward Daly said during a US Defense Department press conference on 30 November that locals in northern Afghanistan had asked for assistance because of increased Taliban activity. But Colonel Daly, who is commander of the 209th Afghan Regional Security Integration Command-North, also said that the United States does not have any intelligence that suggests Taliban are massing in the north.

In another development related to the major suicide bombing in early November, Afghan parliamentarians staged a walk-out protest on 26 November because they were unhappy with the lack of cooperation in the investigation by some Afghan officials, and called for the suspension of Baghlan's governor. Suspicions about the reaction to the attack have been raised; suggesting that fewer Afghans would have died had the response been better.

Issue of civilian casualties still dogging ISAF; survey of other violence
Local Afghan officials have accused NATO of accidentally killing 14 civilians during an airstrike in eastern Afghanistan on 28 November. A day later, an ISAF spokesman said that NATO had targeted Taliban forces and that the organization had no evidence that civilians were killed as a result of the airstrike, which took place in Nuristan province. According to the ISAF statement, members of a construction firm had identified bodies recovered from the site of the airstrike. At first members of the firm said that the bodies were Taliban, but then later said that they were members of a civilian construction crew. ISAF reported that the airstrike killed Taliban leader Abdullah Jan, yet confirmed that the entire incident was under investigation. On a related note, Denmark announced that it is breaking with NATO policy and will compensate the relatives of civilians killed by their troops during operations against insurgents.

Casualties from combat and attacks on civilians mounted over the past two weeks, with Kandahar province continuing to endure a heightened streak of violence. Afghan officials reported that an ISAF-led strike in Kandahar resulted in the deaths and injury of up to 100 Taliban on 18 November. On the same day in Kandahar, two Canadian soldiers and their interpreter were killed by a roadside bomb. Two days earlier, Kandahar's provincial police chief reported that insurgents attacked a double wedding party, killing two brides and a child. ISAF troops fired upon a taxi that reportedly failed to heed warnings to stop, resulting in the death of one civilian in Kandahar city, also on 16 November. Insurgents beheaded seven policemen and six others were reported missing on 23 November in the province.

A snapshot of other violence included a suicide bombing near Kabul, which resulted in the deaths of nine civilians and an Italian soldier on 25 November. In Uruzgan province, three civilians and an Australian soldier were killed during an operation against Taliban on 23 November.

Visit by NATO's Secretary General amid pessimistic reports by Senlis Council, US NSC
NATO's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, visited Afghanistan on 22 November. The Secretary General said that allies need to send more trainers to Afghanistan for building both the Afghan National Army and police forces. Overall the Secretary General focused on the progress made in Afghanistan while more ominous conclusions were being drawn elsewhere. The Senlis Council released a report on 21 November, which argues NATO should double its ISAF forces - up to 80,000, to help secure the southern part of the country and send troops into Pakistan to deal with insurgent safe havens. The Council also warns that Kabul may face a more serious threat from insurgents in 2008. According to the Washington Post, the US National Security Council (NSC) released its latest assessment on progress in Afghanistan in November. The assessment was pessimistic, noting that the Taliban are spreading their operations, and pointed to the huge growth in opium-poppy production and the weakness of the Afghan government.

Karzai holds out hope for negotiations with Taliban
President Hamid Karzai expressed hope for peace negotiations with insurgents, saying that Taliban leaders had contacted him many times to express their interest in a dialogue. However, he stipulated that the Afghan government would not negotiate with Taliban who are connected to the al Qaida network. A journalist for the independent Afghan newspaper Cheragh (BBC Monitoring translation from Dari, 27 November) pointed out with skepticism that the Taliban may not have much reason to negotiate with the Afghan government because they still maintain unfettered operations in many parts of the country. He also questioned the timing of the announcement, speculating that President Karzai made his remarks during the press conference with NATO's Secretary General and that they were trying to counter the negative outlook put forward by the recent Senlis Council report, which argues that the Taliban now pose a serious threat to President Karzai's government. The reporter concludes that if Taliban really are showing an interest in negotiations, it may be a ploy to secure a deal for the purpose of maintaining current gains as Afghanistan enters the harsh winter season.

Multilateral and national developments
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) announced more results from its survey of opium production in Afghanistan. The UNODC said that opium makes up 53 percent of Afghanistan's licit Gross Domestic Product. The UNODC's executive director, Antonio Maria Costa, called on NATO to do more to suppress Afghanistan's opium industry, which the Office now says may be providing terrorists, insurgents and criminals with hundreds of millions of dollars to fund their activities. Meanwhile, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which recently started training Afghan anti-drug police, has pledged to commit more resources toward counter-drug operations and border security between Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. The commitment was formalized on 30 November, when the OSCE concluded a major meeting of foreign ministers in Madrid.

Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende announced on 30 November that The Netherlands will keep its troops in Afghanistan to support ISAF, but said that his country would draw down the contribution to about 1,350 troops from the current level of 1,650. The government has extended the mission until 2010. The Dutch Parliament, however, still needs to approve of the extension. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Poland will not draw down its current commitment of 1,200 troops in Afghanistan, even though the country will withdraw 900 troops from Iraq next year. NATO commanders continue to express concern over ISAF's helicopter shortage. Many member states have chosen not to provide helicopters due to the cost of transporting and maintaining them in the region. French Brigadier General Vincent Lafontaine of ISAF remarked on 30 November that NATO officials are considering the possibility of outsourcing some tasks to private helicopter companies in 2008.

In other developments, a UK inquest into the death of British paratrooper, Corporal Bryan Budd, found that he was probably killed by allied fire. Corporal Budd had been serving with the 3rd Battalion of the Parachute Regiment when he was killed in August 2006 in Helmand province.

Chris Lindborg and Candice Boyer, BASIC

Please note: BASIC does not necessarily endorse comments, editorials, or reports listed in this update.

Stories and Links:

Afghanistan: Resurgent Taliban slows aid projects, reconstruction, Ron Synovitz, Eurasia.net, 1/12
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp120107.shtml

NATO-led force 'insufficient' for Afghanistan, AFP via the Gulf Times, 1/12
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=187626&version=1&template_id=41&parent_id=23

Taliban leader targeted in Nuristan air raid, Afgha.com, 29/11
http://www.afgha.com/?q=node/5157

Halt US Aid, bin Laden urges Europe, Al Jazeera, 29/11
http://english.aljazeera.net

NATO's new Afghan battleground: YouTube, Paula Newton, CNN.com, 28/11
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/28/nato.youtube/index.html

Afghanistan: Teaching Counter Insurgency-Too little, too late? Fawzia Sheikh, IPS, 27/11
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=40222

Why have the Taliban contacted the government and for what purpose? Mohammad Ishaq, Cheragh, 27/11
(BBC Monitoring South Asia, translation from Dari on 29/11)-no link available.

Afghan lawmakers walk out in bomb probe protest, AFP via Khaleej Times Online, 26/11
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?section=subcontinent&xfile=data/
subcontinent/2007/november/subcontinent_november1073.xml

British Get Blamed for Helmand Security Problems, Wahidullah Amani and Aziz Ahmad Tassal, IWPR via e-Ariana, 24/11
http://www.e-ariana.com/ariana/eariana.nsf/allArticles/7AFDCF9C3F37D46A8725738F002AD4E9?OpenDocument

A drug-free Afghanistan may be nothing but a pipe dream, Manuba Kitagawa, The Asahi Shimbun, 22/11
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200711220064.html

Needing NATO: The alliance could crumble if the US becomes the COIN expert, Andrew Grotto, Armed Forces Journal, 22/11
http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2007/11/3022332

Private guns for hire, Andrew Mayeda and Mike Blanchfield, CanWest News Service via National Post, 22/11
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=cb01f163-7786-4a1c-9cda-e93bd7f5ae3f

Losing Afghanistan, One Civilian at a Time, Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, Washington Post, 18/11
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/16/AR2007111601203.html

Opium Amounts to half of Afghanistan's GDP in 2007, Reports UNODC, Press Release, 16/11
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/press/releases/opium-amounts-to-half-of-afghanistans-gdp-in-2007,-reports-unodc.html

Editorials, Transcripts and Reports:

News Briefing with Col. Daly and Maj. Gen. Ali from Afghanistan, US Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs), 30/11
http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4096

The Troubled Afghan-Pakistani Border, Jayshree Bajoria, Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder, 29/11
http://www.cfr.org/publication/14905/

Stumbling Into Chaos: Afghanistan on the Brink, Senlis Council Report, November 2007
http://www.senliscouncil.org/modules/publications/Afghanistan_on_the_brink

Transcript of video conference with Brigadier General Kurt Pedersen (Director, Directorate for ANA Training
and Equipment Support), NATO/ISAF, 22/11
http://www.nato.int/isaf/docu/speech/2007/sp071122a.html

Afghan Defence Minister Says Army Soon Taking Over Taliban Fight, Afghan Ariana TV, 17/11
(BBC Monitoring International Reports translation from Dari) - no link available.