AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

7 June 2007

No. 4: 31 May - 6 June 2007

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Previous editions of BASIC's Afghanistan Update are available here.

Summary:

• Gates says Taliban have weapons from Iran; Afghanistan and Iran remain "good friends" according to Karzai
• Dutch General describes Taliban as "defeated"
• Afghan military seeks more assistance to fight Taliban
• More details on Chinook crash in Helmand
• Political developments and deployment updates

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Afghanistan earlier this week and stated with cautious optimism that the country is "headed in the right direction," and said that a key objective of his trip is to ensure the continued coordination between military operations and reconstruction and development efforts. Gates also urged other Asian nations to do more to assist Afghanistan, and said that the cooperation of nations like Kyrgyzstan, where the United States has an airbase, is vital to success of the international mission.

Gates also addressed the issue of foreign-made weapons in Afghanistan. An explosively formed penetrator (EFP) road-side bomb was found in Kabul last week, and the Washington Times reported on Tuesday that Chinese made anti-aircraft missiles have appeared in Afghanistan. Gates did not discuss either the EFP or Chinese weapons but did specifically identify Iran as a source of weapons. He did not accuse the Iranian government of directly supporting the Taliban. A NATO report obtained by ABC News on Wednesday, however, stated in no uncertain terms that the supplying of weapons to the Taliban had official backing in Tehran and was "part of a considered policy."

President Karzai, in contrast, took care during his press conference with Gates to stress the positive nature of Iranian-Afghan relations, saying that they "had never been as friendly as they are today." Iran had poor relations with the former Taliban regime and nearly went to war against Afghanistan in 1998 after eight Iranian diplomats and a journalist were killed when the Taliban overran Mazar-e Sharif. Relations between the two nations have been strained in recent weeks by the forced expulsion of thousands of Afghan refugees by Iran.

In a speech at the Atlantic Council of the United States on Wednesday, Dutch Maj. Gen. Ton van Loon, former commander of Regional Command South in Afghanistan, stated that the Taliban have effectively been defeated and could no longer capture and hold territory, but warned that pockets of resistance remained and that the insurgents remained dangerous. Gen. van Loon's statements were not supported by ISAF Commander Gen. Dan McNeil, however, who said in a Pentagon press briefing on Wednesday that he disagreed with van Loon's assessment that the Taliban could no longer control territory. McNeil said that despite the upsurge in asymmetric attacks on NATO forces, the alliance retained the "upper hand" in the counter-insurgency campaign.

McNeil finished his press briefing by describing ISAF as an interim force, and said that Afghanistan's own national security forces must ultimately assume responsibility for bringing security and stability to the country. Gen. Bishmullah Khan of the Afghan National Army expressed frustration on Monday at the slow pace with which this transfer of responsibility is happening, and said the Afghan military requires more resources and equipment, particularly an air force. Khan also said that the military needs greater assistance from Pakistan to fight the Taliban, stating that the current level of cooperation is insufficient. The United States is leading the international effort to build Afghanistan's military, which will be equipped to NATO standards once completed.

The crash of a Chinook helicopter in Helmand province last week could have resulted in much greater loss of life, NATO sources revealed. Thirty to forty soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division participating in Operation Axe-Handle had disembarked from the helicopter minutes before it went down near Kajaki. Five U.S. personnel, a Canadian and a Briton were killed in the crash, the cause of which remains under investigation, but according to a U.S. military source quoted in the Washington Times, the helicopter was downed by a "lucky shot" from a rocket-propelled grenade.

The town of Shiberghan saw further protests this week as demonstrators continued to demand the removal of the provincial governor Juma Khan Hamdard. There was no further violence, however, and according to reports by the Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic News agency on 2 June, President Karzai may remove Hamdard from office. Afghan and Pakistani officials took further steps to repair relations between their two countries in recent days. During a visit to Kabul, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz stated that extremism poses a danger to both nations, and that the solution lay in closer cooperation. He discussed plans to arrange cross-border meetings between Afghan and Pakistani tribal elders and government officials. Pakistani PTV television reported on Saturday that officials from both sides have agreed upon an agenda for the August meeting.

Denmark's parliament gave formal approval on 1 June to deploy an extra 200 soldiers to its current contingent of 400. The troops will be sent to the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar in the autumn. Meanwhile French Prime Minister Francois Fillon has downplayed suggestions of any imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan, stating that France will maintain its presence in Afghanistan, but did add that they would seek to make the mission more efficient. German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung likewise reiterated commitment to Afghanistan, proclaiming during a visit to Pakistan that foreign troops would remain to assist in providing security until their Afghan counterparts can do so independently. Prince Harry of Great Britain, originally due to be sent to Iraq with the Blues and Royals regiment, may instead wind up in Afghanistan. According to the Independent, the prince could join other British officers in helping to train the Afghan army. His deployment to Iraq was barred after army officials decided his presence would place the lives of fellow soldiers in unnecessary danger.

Cameron Scott
BASIC

Stories and Links:

Is Iran supplying weapons to the Taliban? The Christian Science Monitor, 1/6 http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0601/p99s01-duts.html?s=mesdu

Missions Impossible: NATO's Afghan Dilemma, Asia Times Online, 1/6 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IF01Df01.html

Afghan Refugees Sing Hekmatyar's Tune, Asia Times Online, 1/6 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IF01Df03.html

Taliban's New Top Commander Vows To Liberate Afghan's from 'American Slavery', Associated Press. 2/6. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/06/d2ea538f-391c-4e3b-87da-7394f67e4a7a.html

Iran arming Taliban against West, says Blair, The Daily Telegraph, 2/6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/02/wafg102.xml

Taliban Warn Civilians of big Afghan Offensive, Reuters, 3/6 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/KLR278823.htm

Our Forgotten War, The Daily Telegraph, 3/6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/02/wafg02.xml

The Other War, The Weekly Standard, Volume 12, Issue 37 http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/721paoob.asp

Afghanistan president branded "weak" by own adviser, Reuters, 4/6 http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSKLR27500320070604

Taliban's Spring Offensive Doesn't Pan Out, The Washington Examiner, 5/6 http://www.examiner.com/a-762833~Taliban_s_spring_offensive_doesn_t_pan_out.html

Taliban tools: suicide and roadside bombs, The Washington Examiner, 6/6 http://www.examiner.com/a-764817~Taliban_tools__suicide_and_roadside_bombs.html

Al-Qaida commander in Afghanistan praises slain Taliban leader, vows revenge, Associated Press, 6/6, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/06/africa/ME-GEN-Al-Qaida-Taliban.php

U.S. House of Representatives passes bill that would cut aid to Afghans tied to drug trade, terrorism, Associated Press, 6/6, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/07/america/NA-GEN-US-Afghanistan.php

Editorials, Interviews and Reports:

Poppy eradication plays into hands of Taliban, Amb. Dennis Kux and Amb. Karl Inderfurth, Financial Times, 31/5 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e8b6774e-0f12-11dc-b444-000b5df10621.html

Defeating Afghanistan's drug fix, Joanna Nathan and Nick Grono, The Christian Science Monitor, 31/5 http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0531/p09s02-coop.html

Afghans' anger over US bombings, Alistair Leithead, BBC News Online, 31/5, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6705607.stm

"Success in Afghanistan: Why it Matters? What Can Be Done?" Presentation by Amb. Ronald Neumann, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 31/5 http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/070531_csis_sftranscript.pdf

Drug Conflict Complicates Violence Between NATO, Taliban, transcript of discussion between Ronald Neumann, Seth Jones and Ray Suarez, PBS News Hour, 31/5 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/jan-june07/afghanistan_05-31.html

DoD Press Briefing with Secretary Gates And President Hamid Karzai from Kabul, Afghanistan, U.S. Department of Defense, 5/6, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3978

DoD News Briefing with Gen. Dan McNeill via Videoconference from Afghanistan at the Pentagon, U.S. Department of Defense, 5/6, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3980