AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

24 May 2007

No. 2: 17 - 23 May 2007

If you would like to receive this update, please email basic-wash at basicint.org with the phrase "subscribe to Afghanistan Update" in the subject line. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback of how useful you find this update. Please contact Cameron Scott by email at cscott at basicint.org with comments or suggestions.

Summary:

• British military officials say Taliban has Iranian-supplied weapons
• Roadside, suicide bombings hit cities across Afghanistan
• German casualties spark calls for withdrawal from opposition parties
• European allies continue criticism of Operation Enduring Freedom mission; Bush and de Hoop Scheffer press for more troops
• Political developments and deployment updates

On Monday insurgents in Helmand fired an anti-aircraft missile at an American F/A-18. Although it missed the aircraft, the possession of such weapons by the Taliban represents a significant danger in many parts of Afghanistan where ground forces are heavily dependent upon aircraft for resupply and close air-support. The Daily Telegraph quoted senior British military sources on Wednesday as saying that Iranian supplied surface-to-air missiles have been used by the Taliban against international forces. They also have made more general claims that other weapons ranging from rifles to explosives have been provided by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Iranian officials have staunchly denied previous accusations of providing arms and assistance to the insurgency in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan was rocked by multiple improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide bombings in the last week that killed dozens of soldiers and civilians. NATO reports that 85 people have been killed by IEDs this month alone. A pair of IEDs killed seven people in Kandahar last Thursday, with the second bomb detonated as police arrived on the scene of the first - a tactic that is often seen in Iraq but is less common in Afghanistan. Later that day a suicide bomber attacked a convoy of vehicles used by Kandahar Governor Asadullah Khalid; although he was not in the convoy at the time, three civilians were killed. Suicide bombers also struck Gardez in Paktia on Sunday and Kabul on Wednesday, and even the relatively quiet north of the country was beset by violence this past week. An IED in Maymana, Faryab province killed a Finnish soldier and wounded four Norwegians on Wednesday, while a suicide bombing in Kondoz on Saturday killed six Afghans and three German soldiers on patrol.

These deaths - the first suffered by the German military in Afghanistan since 2005 - have raised concerns that the country may reconsider its participation in the NATO mission. The German presence in Afghanistan has been unpopular domestically in recent months. A poll conducted on Monday showed that 65% of those surveyed favored pulling troops out of Afghanistan. Opposition groups such as the Left Party have renewed previous calls for German soldiers to be withdrawn, but Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier have vowed that the events of the weekend will not prompt a pull out of German troops.

While German Defense Minister Franz Josef-Jung also reaffirmed Germany's commitment to Afghanistan, he directed criticism at the recent operations by the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), a counter-terrorism mission separate in command and control from the NATO-led ISAF. Jung called for a reassessment on how the OEF mission pursues its counter-terrorism objectives, and was joined by his Italian counterpart Arturo Parisi, who said on Tuesday that some of "the worst problems" in Afghanistan are caused by continued presence of OEF, according to Italian daily La Repubblica.

This discord between allies will do little to help the requests made by President Bush and NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer for allies to increase their contributions to Afghanistan. The meeting in Crawford, Texas on Sunday echoed similar calls made at NATO meetings in Riga last November and Seville in February, as Bush and de Hoop Scheffer vowed to press other NATO nations to deploy more troops and to remove the caveats under which many national contingents currently operate. Previous appeals from NATO political and military leaders have produced limited progress on these issues.

Recent political developments in Britain and France are unlikely to affect either nation's presence in Afghanistan. Although Nikolas Sarkozy made comments prior to his election suggesting he might reconsider the French commitment, his appointment of Bernard Kouchner as Foreign Minister on Friday may ease any fears of a troop withdrawal. Kouchner disagrees with Sarkozy on a number of foreign policy issues, including Afghanistan, and it appears the new foreign minister supports a strong French presence there. In Britain, the impending promotion of Gordon Brown to Prime Minister has prompted many questions regarding his foreign policy views. Writing in The Times on Monday, William Rees-Moggs says that while Brown may indeed assume a different foreign policy stance than Tony Blair, particularly with regards to involvement in Iraq, the British commitment in Afghanistan would likely be unaffected.

In political developments in Afghanistan, the fate of embattled Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta will be decided by a Supreme Court vote, according to President Hamid Karzai. Spanta has faced calls for resignation by MPs who claim he mishandled the deportation of tens of thousands of Afghan refugees from Iran. Meanwhile, Afghan MPs have suspended female lawmaker Malali Joya following comments made in a television appearance in which said the Afghan parliament was "worse than a zoo". Her suspension has been controversial in Afghanistan and abroad, as Human Rights Watch called Joya a "staunch defender of human rights'' and labeled the suspension a blow to Afghan democracy.

Denmark pre-empted the call for more troops by agreeing last week to send another 200 troops to Afghanistan, bringing its total commitment to 640. The move faced opposition from left-wing political groups but was defended by defense minister Soren Gade, who stated that a "big effort" is required to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a failed state again, according to the Danish website Politiken. The earliest date for the arrival of the extra troops in Afghanistan is October.

Cameron Scott
BASIC

Stories and Links:

Taleban create diversion in northern Afghanistan, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, 17/5 http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/TKAI-73B2EJ?OpenDocument

Death of a Talib, The Economist, 17/5 http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9205465

Afghan soldiers mass on border, ready and willing to take on an old foe, The Times, 19/5 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article1811094.ece

Germany vows to continue reconstruction in Afghanistan, despite suicide attack, Associated Press, 19/5 http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/19/europe/EU-GEN-Germany-Afghan-Violence.php

Troop deaths could hit Berlin's Afghan support, Financial Times, 21/5 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/32570158-0738-11dc-93e1-000b5df10621.html

With Poppy Crop Rising, US & NATO forces may step up war on drugs, Associated Press, 21/5 http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/21/asia/AS-FEA-Afghan-Drugs.php

Germany Tormented by its Pacifist Streak after Afghan Attack, Der Speigel, 21/5 http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,483952,00.html

NATO's Afghan Role Defended, Los Angeles Times, 22/5 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-bushnato22may22,1,6319383.story?track=rss

NATO presses US to curb special forces in Afghanistan, The Daily Telegraph, 22/5 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/22/wafghan122.xml

Taliban 'using missiles from Iran to target British troops', The Daily Telegraph, 22/5 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/22/wafghan22.xml

ANALYSIS-Civilian deaths undermine West's Afghan mission, Reuters, 22/5 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ISL38042.htm

Troops Keen to Return to Work, Despite Deadly Risk, Der Speigel, 22/5 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,484286,00.html

85 killed in Afghan IED blasts in May - NATO, Reuters, 23/5 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ISL126822.htm

Merkel party urges caution on Afghan mission, International Herald Tribune, 23/5 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/23/news/germany.php

Editorials and Reports:

The Limitations on air-power in counter-insurgency, BASIC Comment, 23/5
http://www.basicint.org/comment/070524.htm

The Uncertain "Metrics" of Afghanistan (and Iraq), Center for Strategic and International Studies, 18/5 http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/070521_uncertainmetrics_afghan.pdf