PRESS RELEASE

4 June 1999

No Clear Victors with Kosovo Peace Agreement

Yugoslavia's acceptance of a peace agreement may bring an end to the war in Kosovo, but if and when the smoke clears, it will be difficult to pick out the victor from the following list. When the war does indeed end, its consequences will be with us for many years. The mere absence of fighting does not guarantee stability in the Balkans. After ten years of policy failures most key players cannot claim to be winners.

NATO: Mixed. Now trying to spin the outcome as a great victory. However, NATO's ego has been severely bruised and enthusiasm for future out of area missions greatly diminished thanks to an air campaign that failed to meet the humanitarian objectives it originally outlined. The campaign has also stretched the military capacities of NATO members, threatened the political unity of the Alliance and cost a great deal of money. B2 bombers and smart weapons have looked impressive, but are unable to stop AK47s and house burnings. NATO is likely to come under increasing public pressure to intervene in other hot-spots in Europe’s periphery.

Milosevic: Loser. He has avoided granting the Kosovo Albanians independence, remains in power, and is close to witnessing the disarming of the KLA. But he is also an indicted war criminal who presides over a decimated landscape in the throws of economic collapse. More importantly, his days of virtually full public support are most likely over as the Serbs start trading democratic reform for badly needed economic assistance.

Serbs: Losers. Several thousand Serbians have lost their lives either in fighting or through NATO miscalculations. Those still alive are stuck with bombed out cities, an indicted war criminal as a leader, and a long and painful walk toward renewed prosperity.

Kosovo Albanians: Worst losers of all. Thousands dead, many missing. The 850,000 displaced refugees who survived could be going home soon but with little or nothing to return to and no guarantee that Serbian troops or paramilitaries won't be up to their old tricks in areas poorly monitored by peacekeepers.

KLA: Mostly winners. Although according to the peace agreement, Kosovo will remain part of Yugoslavia, time is on KLA’s side. As Serb forces start their withdrawal, the KLA is set to surge into Kosovo. It has avoided a timeline for its disarmament that was part of the Rambouillet accords and has seen its strength boosted by thousands of disillusioned Albanian refugees. Its military capabilities have been enormously improved due to its cooperation with NATO forces. However, the KLA may find themselves fighting guerilla war against NATO and Russian forces in two or three years if their goal of independence is rejected by the international community.

Russia: Mixed. Kudos are certainly in order for Russia's diplomatic efforts in the past weeks, especially in light of the fact that NATO all but ignored its original calls for an alternative to the bombing campaign. Moscow will also deploy substantial troops of its own in Kosovo under Russian command and therefore gain political leverage in the Balkans – leverage it lost after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. However, with anti-Western sentiment at dangerously high levels so close to Presidential and Parliamentary elections, Russia still ends up with a mixed record over Kosovo.

UN: Potential to be a winner. The credibility of the UN has been severely damaged thanks to NATO's failure to seek a Security Council resolution for a UN mandate. Kofi Annan, not consulted in the early stages of the bombing campaign and minimally included in recent diplomatic efforts must be feeling unappreciated. However, there is a clear opportunity for the UN to still emerge as a winner. The Kosovo peace accord – unlike the Dayton agreement - envisages a UN mandated and controlled peacekeeping force for Kosovo.

ICTY: Mixed. The International Criminal Tribunal on the Former Yugoslavia in the Hague may have, after years of prevarication, indicted Milosevic and several other Yugoslavian government figures, but they are no nearer trial. The new agreement drops the Rambouillet clause compelling the Serbs to cooperate actively with the Court – in other words, Milosevic is free to go on ruling Serbia as before.

EU: Mixed. The organization that emerges looking most like a winner. Likely to be feeling relatively victorious now that its EU Summit (usually an event ignored by outsiders) took the global spotlight. It could be a perfect time to build upon the diplomatic success with Russia to strengthen the EU's foreign and security policy role. Before EU planners roll up their sleeves and get to work, though, somebody needs to rebuild Kosovo. It will be extremely costly, someone has to pay. And it's not going to be the US. With the Euro already weak, the EU may be a political winner and economic loser in Kosovo.

Neighboring States: Losers. Albania and Macedonia are struggling to cope with the humanitarian and economic consequences of the bombing campaign. Other countries as far afield as Ukraine and Austria are suffering from the disruption of the traffic in the Danube. Bulgaria, Hungary, and Greece have suffered from sanctions in Serbia and disruption of trade. Although the West has promised to speed the economic, political and military integration of all Balkan states in Europe, it could take years to rebuild the damage inflicted to neighboring countries. Moreover, Albania and Macedonia may not have heard the last of the KLA.

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