India Tests U.S. Nuclear Policy

11 May 1998

By Daniel Plesch and Stephen W. Young

The destabilizing decision by the new Indian government to explode three nuclear bombs reveals the failure of the Clinton Administration’s nuclear non-proliferation policy. Washington’s attempts to maintain its own nuclear arsenal, while discouraging others from attaining the same capability, has led us to this point. In response, paralleling India’s three explosions, Washington is considering three responses.

Unfortunately, the most likely option is a continuation of the present strategy. It tells other countries, "You should not get the bomb, but it is OK for the US – along with Britain, France, Israel, Russia and China – to keep their nuclear weapons." Under current US law, sanctions will be imposed against India. This may be followed by offering India economic and military sweeteners to give up or limit their nuclear program, similar to what transpired with North Korea.

‘Managed Proliferation’ is favored by self-styled nuclear realists, and will be given a boost by India’s actions. This involves accepting nuclear proliferation as inevitable and seeking to establish regional and ‘stable’ balances of terror in the Middle East, Korea and South Asia. In the extreme version, the US would supply the best and safest nuclear weapons technology to prevent accidents. Meanwhile the US would spend billions on anti-missile missiles in an expensive and unrealistic effort to protect itself.

This option, however, is defeatist and confused. Somehow these realists believe that the world is full of evil people with whom we cannot make deals, yet somehow these people are not so out of control that there will actually go to war. If the realists are right and a nuclear arms race is inevitable, accident or miscalculation will produce a regional or global holocaust. As recently as January 1995, Americans came within an hour of annihilation when Russia, having mistaken the launch of a weather rocket for an attack, prepared to fire its missiles at the US.

Elimination of weapons of mass destruction is favored by a growing and bipartisan group of former generals and officials. It would have the US practice what it preaches and plan for global eradication of nuclear arms to parallel the on-going elimination of chemical and biological weapons. These talks would bring to life Ronald Reagan’s motto, "Trust but Verify", which brought real reductions in arsenals. Opponents argue that this is a hopelessly naive dream because we cannot dis-invent nuclear arms. They forget that we did not dis-invent the gas chamber yet no one would imagines using them again.

There are no easy options. All the courses of action have problems. The choice is about risk reduction: which option provides the best opportunity for a secure and truly stable future. The advantage of pursuing the elimination of nuclear arms is that it switches on a light at the end of the tunnel, a beacon of hope for the US and the world. The United States is a nation built on a dream. The US should act creatively in response to India’s disastrous action. The President should open global negotiations aimed at eliminating, not managing, the nuclear threat. This is a top priority for the nation. The world expects no less from America.

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