BASIC PAPERS
OCCASIONAL PAPERS ON INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY POLICY
August 2006 . NUMBER 52
The Transatlantic Dimension to the Conflict in
Lebanon: Whatever Happened to the Responsibility to Protect?
By Dr Ian Davis, BASIC Executive Director
The views expressed here are the author's and do
not necessarily reflect those of BASIC, its staff or Council members
This Paper is also available in pdf at: http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Papers/BP52.pdf
Key Points in this Paper
- The extension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into Lebanon
has created a multifaceted crisis with several dimensions.
- Unintended consequences of US and British interventions elsewhere
in the 'war on terror' appear to be framing the battle lines in
this Israeili-Hamas-Hezbollah conflict.
- The US Administration refuses to condemn the Israeli offensive
because it reserves the right to act in exactly the same way.
And the British Prime Minister has assumed the default position
in UK-US relations: that by supporting Israel publicly he will
have more influence privately.
- The key provisions of the Geneva Conventions do apply to all
parties in the current conflict in the Middle East: the regular
armed forces of Israel, to Hezbollah as an organised political
Islamist group with a military arm, and to any formal or informal
Palestinian forces.
- The NATO Response Force (NRF) could form the main component
of an international security force for the Lebanon, but there
are several difficulties with such a deployment that still need
to be resolved.
- Disarming the military wing of Hezbollah against its will is
not an option, but disruption of its lines of re-supply is, as
part of an international arms embargo on all shipments of weapons
to all parties in the war.
- Key principles for a lasting solution include: the Israeli government
must immediately halt its attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah and
Hamas must immediately stop shelling or otherwise engaging in
violence against Israel; the Israeli government, Hezbollah and
Hamas must adhere strictly to the rules of international humanitarian
law, particularly with regard to the protection of civilians and
rules against the use of indiscriminate weapons; and there is
a need to address the underlying sense of injustice and insecurity
felt on both sides.
- The United States and Britain have to improve their own moral
condition, via a return to the rule of law and to the protection
of civil liberties, and an end to efforts to escape from the obligations
of international law in the fight against terrorism.
Introduction
The war in Lebanon is entering its third week. The latest round
of the conflict began after the Lebanese Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah
captured two Israeli soldiers, and killed three others, in a cross-border
raid on 12 July (following the earlier capture of another Israeli
soldier by Hamas in late June and the detention by Israel of a number
of senior Hamas government officials). The number of dead and wounded
in Gaza, Northern Israel and Lebanon are now over six hundred -
including four unarmed UN observers and 52 villagers, including
30 children, killed on 30 July by an Israeli air strike on the Lebanese
village of Qana. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
puts the number of internally displaced Lebanese in Beirut at 65,000.
The UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that 800,000
Lebanese (out of a population of 3.5 million) have now been displaced.
The main concern is for the civilians living in Southern Lebanon,
who can neither move easily or be supplied safely by the relief
agencies.
Crisis talks between US, European and Arab officials in Rome on
26 July failed to agree on an immediate plan to force an end to
the fighting. Although officials called for an end to the violence,
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said any ceasefire must be
"sustainable" and that there could be "no return to the status quo
ante". UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called for the formation
of a multinational force to help Lebanon assert its authority and
implement existing UN resolutions that call for Hezbollah to be
disarmed. At a bilateral meeting in Washington on 30 July, Tony
Blair and George Bush proposed the staged introduction to Lebanon
of an international security force with a new UN mandate, but continued
to refuse to endorse calls for an unconditional ceasefire.
What began as a localised conflict between Israel and Palestinian
militants in Gaza quickly became a regional conflict after Hezbollah's
capture of the two Israeli soldiers. The Israeli government has
responded by carrying out air strikes against suspected Hezbollah
targets in Lebanon, and Hezbollah has countered with rocket attacks
against cities and towns in northern Israel. A ground war in southern
Lebanon has also started. Meanwhile, Israeli clashes with Hamas
and other Palestinian militants have continued unabated in Gaza.
The extension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into Lebanon
has created a multifaceted crisis with several dimensions: Hamas
striving to be accepted as a legitimate government of the Palestinian
Authority; Hezbollah's role in Lebanon and its sponsorship by Iran
and Syria; the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict; the growing Sunni-Shiite
divide in the region; and wider international divisions, especially
the war of words between Washington and Tehran. This BASIC Paper
focuses on the transatlantic dimension to the crisis, which cuts
across a number of US and British policies in the Middle East. In
particular, some of the unintended consequences of US and British
interventions elsewhere in the 'war on terror' appear to be framing
the battle lines in this Israeli-Hamas-Hezbollah conflict. One of
the primary consequences is the undermining of the Geneva Conventions
and other humanitarian law.
The author supports the call being made by many governments and
civil society groups: that a political solution to the twin crises
of Lebanon and Palestine must be the international community's urgent
priority. This in turn, requires an immediate Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire
that puts a reciprocal end to attacks. As the International Crisis
Group concludes, "Waiting and hoping for military action to achieve
its purported goals will have not only devastating humanitarian
consequences: it will make it much harder to pick up the political
pieces when the guns fall silent".[1]
The international community should also be prepared to contribute
a sufficient military force with a robust mandate to undertake what
a weak or manipulated Lebanon plainly can or will not: a zone of
security along the southern border with Israel.
US and British Goals in the Crisis
The crisis erupted just before the start of the annual Group of
Eight (G-8) heads-of-state meeting in Russia. After lengthy discussions,
the G-8 called for Hamas and Hezbollah to release the three Israeli
soldiers and to stop firing mortars and rockets at Israeli cities,
and for Israel to cease military operations against Gaza and Lebanon,
to withdraw all forces back inside Israel, and release Palestinian
government officials arrested earlier. However, the Bush Administration
has interpreted the G-8 statement as requiring Hamas and Hezbollah
to return the soldiers and cease shelling first, after which Israel
would halt its operations. Since the statement does not specify
a sequence, this US interpretation is at odds with the other summit
participants-with the exception of Britain.
The G-8 division was replicated at the Rome Summit, with the United
Nations, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Jordan, Russia,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Canada and Cyprus in favour of an immediate
ceasefire and the United States and Britain opposed. What are the
reasons behind the US-UK stance?
The US Administration has repeatedly stated its unequivocal support
for Israel's intervention in Lebanon and President Bush has charged
that "the root cause of the problem is Hezbollah... And part of
those terrorist attacks are inspired by nation states, like Syria
and Iran." Thus, while many in the international community have
called for an immediate ceasefire, US and British officials have
refrained from backing this demand, ostensibly to allow Israel to
conduct its extensive military campaign to weaken Hezbollah. This
would also seem to support US Administration goals of creating a
"new" democratic and pro-Western Middle East, where necessary, with
force. Seeking to split Syria off from Iran by striking a deal with
Damascus may well be the next big US strategic chess move.[2]
The United States and Israel presently share a similar approach
to security: an emphasis on unilateral, overpowering force or the
threat of such force to try to establish absolute security from
attack or even intimidation from others. It has been clear since
the beginning of the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon that
the US Administration would not condemn it because it reserves the
right to act in exactly the same way if its own citizens, and especially
its military forces, are seized or some other act against US interests
'requires' a military response. The Bush Administration is not about
to limit its own potential for action by condemning Israeli use
of force. But just as the 'preventive war' in Iraq failed to make
the United States more secure in the world, the disproportionate
response by the Israeli military to Hezbollah's provocation will
also weaken the chances of achieving the peace and security that
Israelis crave.[3]
Nonetheless, these are policies that, for the time being, have widespread
support in both Israel and the United States.
On 20 July, for example, the US House of Representatives, voted
by an overwhelming 410-8 margin to unconditionally endorse Israel's
ongoing attacks on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. The Senate passed
a similar resolution earlier in the week by a voice vote, but included
a clause that "urges all sides to protect innocent civilian life
and infrastructure". By contrast, the House version omits this section
and even praises Israel for "minimizing civilian loss", despite
overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
As Stephen Zunes, professor of Politics at the University of San
Francisco argues, the resolution reveals a bipartisan US consensus
on the legitimacy of allies to disregard international legal norms.
He also points out that the resolution radically reinterprets the
UN Charter by claiming that Israel's attacks on Lebanon's civilian
infrastructure are an act of legitimate self-defence under Article
51, concluding that, "In short, both Democrats and Republicans are
now on record that, in the name of "fighting terrorism," US allies-and,
by extension, the United States as well-can essentially ignore international
law and inflict unlimited damage on the civilian infrastructure
of a small and largely defenceless country, even a pro-Western democracy
like Lebanon".[4]
Even if Hezbollah is conducting a proxy war for Tehran, and only
has an army with a notional strength of around 2,000 [5]
which uses Lebanon as a human shield, what chance of success
do ground and air attacks on Lebanon have, except in fuelling anti-Israeli
sentiment and further sectarian violence? And by unwittingly targeting
one of the best hopes of civilized life in the Middle East (outside
of Israel itself), the Israeli Defence Force is creating a moral
and institutional vacuum in Lebanon in which Hezbollah and other
radical Islamist groups will prosper.
And what of Britain's motives for endorsing the US line? The Prime
Minister will no doubt argue that by supporting Israel publicly
he will have more influence privately. This is also his default
position in UK-US relations, with equally mixed results. But private
pressure is a two-way street. There is also undoubtedly US pressure
applied to the UK government, as part of the quid-pro quo of the
'Special Relationship', to keep the UK 'on-message' in any public
pronouncements or negotiations on the wider Israeli-Arab dispute.
Israel is also Britain's third largest trading partner in the Middle
East, so there is also a measure of economic self-interest within
Whitehall.
But unlike the near US congressional consensus, there is a growing
parliamentary revolt against Tony Blair's handling of the Middle
East crisis that even extends to members of his Cabinet. Jack Straw,
Leader of the House of Commons and former Foreign Secretary, has
described Israeli attacks on Lebanon as "disproportionate" and accused
Tel Aviv of escalating an "already dangerous situation". Opinion
polls in Britain also suggest that the Prime Minister is out of
step with the public on the closeness of Britain's relationship
with the White House.
At what point then does Downing Street publicly part company with
the White House? Only at the margins it would seem. It has been
reported that Britain's Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett talked
to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during the Rome Summit
about allegations that Prestwick airport in Scotland had been used
as a staging post by US planes transporting bunker-busting bombs
to Israel. Margaret Beckett told Channel 4 News: "We will be making
a formal protest [to the United States] if it appears that that
is what has happened". But the condemnation and subsequent apology
was more about the process rather than the substance, and a further
six flights carrying military supplies for Israel have allegedly
passed through UK airports since. It has also been suggested that
Defence Secretary Des Browne (himself a Scot) offered the use of
English airports following protests by Scottish Secretary Douglas
Alexander about the use of Prestwick Airport. The only other alternative
is Shannon airport in Ireland, but the Irish government has refused
to allow these flights to land on its soil.[6]
Self-Defence and the Responsibility to Protect
The concept of 'Responsibility to Protect (R2P)' was first comprehensively
outlined in a 2001 report by the Canadian-led International Commission
on Intervention and State Sovereignty, which aimed to reconcile
sovereignty and the international concern for gross human rights
violations. In short, it sought to provide a legal and ethical basis
for 'humanitarian intervention': the intervention by external actors
(preferably the international community through the United Naitons)
in a state that is unwilling or unable to fight genocide, massive
killings and other massive human rights violations. This intervention
should be the exercise of diplomatic and then, if necessary, coercive
(including forceful) steps to protect civilians. The 2005 World
Summit Outcome Document endorsed the R2P concept, and in April 2006,
the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1674 on the
Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Resolution 1674 contains
the historic first official Security Council reference to the responsibility
to protect: it "reaffirms the provisions of paragraphs 138 and 139
of the World Summit Outcome Document regarding the responsibility
to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing
and crimes against humanity".
So who is responsible for the protection of civilians in the Lebanon
crisis? The following extract from a blog on the UK Overseas Development
Institute's Web site seeks to draw out some answers:
While the emphasis of the R2P doctrine has tended
towards internal conflict, a key question in the context of the
current crisis in the Middle East is what responsibility does
the international community have in ensuring that civilians are
protected in international conflicts as well?
In this case, the Government of Lebanon is evidently
unable to prevent either the activities of Hizbollah or the retaliatory
actions of Israel. The civilian population of Lebanon (and parts
of Israel) are caught in the middle of this. Whether or not Israel
is legally justified in its actions under the self-defence provisions
of the UN Charter (Article 51) - or in lawyers' terms, whether
it is justified under the ius ad bellum - its actions are contrary
to the basic principles of the Geneva Conventions or the ius in
bello. These require that a distinction be drawn between civilian
and military targets; that due precaution be exercised to prevent
incidental damage to civilians and civilian objects; and that
any such damage be proportionate to the anticipated military advantage
gained. Israel's actions arguably fail all of these tests.
What would the R2P doctrine require of other states
in this case? Surely as a minimum that breaches of humanitarian
law on both sides be condemned, and that steps be taken to put
an end to such practice by whatever means necessary. Hizbollah
itself has made the distinction between military and civilian
objects difficult, and should be condemned for doing so - as they
should for their indiscriminate rocket attacks on Israeli targets.
But this cannot justify the indiscriminate nature of the Israeli
response. Even if a state acts in self-defence, it is still bound
by jus in bello to exercise restraint and avoid civilian casualties
and damage to civilian infrastructure. The number of civilian
casualties, the attack of the civilian airport in Beirut and Israel's
air and sea blockade on Lebanon constitute a breach of those humanitarian
obligations.
Considering the inability of the Lebanese government
to protect its civilians, does the international community not
share a collective responsibility to protect civilians by getting
Israel - through persuasion or otherwise - to moderate its actions?
And can it be conscionable in these circumstances not to support
calls for an immediate ceasefire?[7]
The ICRC, long recognised as the guardian of the Geneva Conventions
(a long-standing legal base for the R2P doctrine) on the conduct
of war, has also declared that Israel has violated the principle
of proportionality in the conventions as well as the prohibition
against collective punishment. Similarly, UN High Commissioner for
Human Rights Louise Arbour-who served as chief prosecutor in the
international war crimes tribunals on Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia-has
gone on record as suggesting that the armed forces of both Hezbollah
and the Israeli government may have been engaging in war crimes.[8]
An international prosecution of any current war crimes being committed
in Lebanon would require a UN Security Council Resolution in order
to establish another ad hoc Tribunal. The International Criminal
Court (ICC) established on the basis of the Rome Statute came into
force in 2002. So far 100 states have ratified and acceded to the
Rome Statute. Neither the United States nor Israel are treaty-states
and they do not intend to become parties to the treaty and do not
see any legal obligations arising out of their signature of the
Rome Statute. The ICC is currently investigating the situation in
Darfur, Uganda and Congo but it will most probably not receive the
cases of Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories.
In addition, a dangerous precedent of discarding the Geneva Conventions
has already been set by the Bush Administration in its misguided
'war on terror'. In January 2002, US Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld announced that prisoners detained in the Afghanistan intervention
would be considered "unlawful combatants" and that "unlawful combatants
do not have any rights under the Geneva Convention". However, the
US repudiation of the Conventions goes beyond a denial of its provisions
to suspect insurgents captured in Afghanistan, Iraq or via 'rendition'
(and the recent US Supreme Court decision in the Hamdan v Rumsfeld
case has invalidated that particular presumption).[9]
Just as significantly, the United States has increasingly failed
to follow the principle of proportionality in dealing with the insurgencies
in Iraq and Afghanistan. While the initial combat phase of the invasion
of Iraq arguably met this requirement by most standards, with US
officials proudly extolling the virtues of the Geneva Conventions
and their compliance with them, the subsequent counter-insurgency
operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq have increasingly been conducted
with disregard for the welfare and dignity of noncombatants.
Of course, the scrutiny as to the proper conduct of the use of
force is not limited to the US forces in Iraq. NATO's intervention
in Kosovo invited such scrutiny for the exclusive use of high-altitude
bombing, the use of cluster bombs and the bombing of dual-use targets
such as power grids. And the Russian President's call for proportionality
in the Lebanon crisis sounds hollow in the light of the Russian
military's own lack of proportionality in combating political violence
in Chechnya.
All of these precedents make it more difficult to hold the parties
to account in the Lebanon crisis. Nonetheless, the key provisions
of the Conventions do apply to all parties in the current conflict
in the Middle East: the regular armed forces of Israel, to Hezbollah
as an organised political Islamist group with a military arm, and
to any formal or informal Palestinian forces. In particular, Article
3 of The Geneva Conventions should be upheld, disseminated, applied
and enforced by all political leaders, and especially by those like
President Bush and Prime Minister Blair who claim to be working
towards higher moral goals. Article 3 reads as follows:
In the case of armed conflict not of an international character
occurring in the territory of one of the High Contracting Parties,
each Party to the conflict shall be bound to apply, as a minimum,
the following provisions: (1) Persons taking no active part in
the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid
down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds,
detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated
humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour,
religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar
criteria. To this end, the following acts are and shall remain
prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever with respect
to the above-mentioned persons: (a) violence to life and person,
in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment
and torture; (b) taking of hostages; (c) outrages upon personal
dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment; (d)
the passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without
previous judgement pronounced by a regularly constituted court,
affording all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as
indispensable by civilized peoples. (2) The wounded and sick shall
be collected and cared for. An impartial humanitarian body, such
as the International Committee of the Red Cross, may offer its
services to the Parties to the conflict. The Parties to the conflict
should further endeavour to bring into force, by means of special
agreements, all or part of the other provisions of the present
Convention. The application of the preceding provisions shall
not affect the legal status of the Parties to the conflict.
It should be the responsibility of all Western states to do all
within their powers to make these lofty texts stick. Making all
military forces and armed movements apply Article 3 and uphold the
R2P doctrine will mitigate the horror of this -- or any -- war.
A Multinational Peacekeeping Force: A Role for NATO's Rapid Response
Force?
The Rome summit ended in failure, issuing only a joint statement
in support of sending an international force into Lebanon under
a UN mandate but without any specifics of which countries might
contribute troops. France and Spain have indicated that they may
send troops depending on the mandate and rules of engagement. And
it has been suggested forces from Turkey, the Netherlands, Sweden,
Norway, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia might supplement
these. Tony Blair and George Bush also floated the idea of a staged
introduction of an international force in Lebanon at their meeting
on 30 July, but were vague on specifics. An earlier article in the
New York Post suggested that this might be in two stages:
an initial force of 10,000 troops, predominantly from Muslim countries,
which would enter Lebanon as soon as a ceasefire was declared, to
be followed by a larger force of up to 30,000 troops after about
90 days.
Part of the current problem in southern Lebanon arises from the
failure of the existing international force, the United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil), which was created in 1978 to
confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace
and security, and help the Lebanese Government restore its effective
authority in the area. One option is to expand Unifil, by increasing
the number and caliber of its troops (currently just under 2,000),
and give it a more robust peace enforcement mandate, including responsibility
for enforcing UN Resolution 1559, which calls for "the disbanding
and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias".
In theory, the NATO Response Force (NRF) could form the main component
of that larger force. NATO claims that it is a highly ready and
technologically advanced force made up of land, air, sea and special
forces components that the Alliance can deploy quickly wherever
needed. It is said to be capable of performing missions worldwide
across the whole spectrum of operations, including evacuations,
disaster management, counter-terrorism, and acting as 'an initial
entry force' for larger, follow-on forces. At present, the force
numbers about 17,000 troops, but it is set to reach full operational
capability in October this year, when it will number some 25,000
troops and be able to start to deploy after five days' notice and
sustain itself for operations lasting 30 days or longer if re-supplied.
General James Jones, the NATO military commander, has said that
if the alliance was asked to play a peacekeeping role in Lebanon,
it would be up to the job.[10]
In practice, however, there are several difficulties with such
a deployment. First, the United States has already said that it
will not contribute troops and the Alliance already has a major
out-of-area mission in Afghanistan (where it has 24,000 troops committed).
Second, NATO is likely to be seen as a tool of Western (and therefore
Israeli interests), rather than a neutral force for peace and stability.
Third, if the mandate is a robust one, which authorises the forced
disarmament of Hezbollah, it could end up becoming an unwitting
party to Lebanon's sectarian battles. Rather, the mandate will need
to be more limited: restoring the authority of the Lebanese army
over the south of the country and denying Hezbollah the freedom
of operation it currently enjoys. The disarmament of Lebanon's rogue
militia, as envisaged in UN Security Council resolution 1559, while
necessary in the long term, will have to wait for a political settlement.
But while disarming the military wing of Hezbollah against its
will--whether attempted by NATO (or any other international military
force)--is not an option, disruption of its lines of re-supply certainly
is. Based on the experiences of interdiction exercises within the
Proliferation Security Initiative and in preventing arms smuggling
in Kosovo and elsewhere in the Balkans, NATO could police the Lebanese
ports and the Syrian border posts through which arms are shipped
to Hezbollah. Such land and sea interdictions would not prevent
all the illicit arms getting through, but could be rigorous enough
to satisfy Israeli concerns. However, such a strategy would also
need to be part of an international arms embargo on all shipments
of weapons to all parties in the war, including the supply of US
and UK weapons and components to Israel.[11]
As part of a lasting settlement, a role will also need to be found
for Hezbollah's guerrilla forces. The eventual disarmament, demobilisation
and reintegration (DDR) of these forces may also entail some elements
being absorbed into the Lebanese army. While such thinking may appear
premature, history suggests that many conflicts have re-ignited
due to the failure or part-failure to implement effective DDR programmes
once a peace accord has been established. Both political and financial
resources need to be earmarked now for when a peacetime DDR programme
in Lebanon may be possible. Again, NATO has experience from the
Balkans of designing and implementing DDR programmes alongside weapons
collection and destruction programmes.
Another alternative to a NATO-led peacekeeping force is an EU military
force under UN auspices, which is said to be the Israeli preference.
But Britain and Germany have already said they will not contribute
soldiers, the former because of overstretch and the latter for sound
historical reasons. Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief,
hinted at the difficulties during the Rome Summit, when he said:
"It's a real possibility. It is not an easy force to deploy but
we have been working to try to construct a concept".
Towards a Lasting Solution: Some Key Principles
1. The Israeli government must immediately halt its attacks on
Lebanon. These attacks are utterly disproportionate to the initial
provocation by Hezbollah, have killed over 600 civilians, displaced
half a million people, destroyed billions of dollars of Lebanon's
infrastructure, and will not, in the long run, secure peace or security
for Israel. By attacking Lebanon, the Israeli government has assumed
a moral and legal responsibility for the well-being of the Lebanese
people both during hostilities and with respect to the stabilisation
and reconstruction of the country thereafter. The Israeli government
should also supply food, electricity, water and funds to repair
the humanitarian crisis caused by its invasion of Gaza.
2. Hezbollah and Hamas must immediately stop shelling or otherwise
engaging in violence against Israel. These actions, which have killed
over 50 Israeli civilians, terrorised the people of Israel and damaged
many towns and cities, played a central role in provoking the current
crisis, and achieve nothing but harm for the cause of Palestinian
and Lebanese independence and democracy.
3. The Israeli government, Hezbollah and Hamas must adhere strictly
to the rules of international humanitarian law, particularly with
regard to the protection of civilians and rules against the use
of indiscriminate weapons. International humanitarian law prohibits
direct attacks on civilians or civilian objects, attacks that do
not distinguish between military targets and civilians or civilian
objects, and attacks which, although aimed at a military target,
have a disproportionate impact on civilians or civilian objects.
There should also be no attack on infrastructure even if used for
military purposes, if the incidental short-term and long-term consequences
for civilians would be disproportionate to the concrete and direct
military advantage sought in the specific attack.
4. Any agreement will require two initial steps: a prisoner swap
and an understanding between all parties (Hezbollah included) that
the current UN presence in South Lebanon will be strengthened with
a multinational peacekeeping force. Israel must release the Hamas
politicians it currently has imprisoned, and Hamas and Hezbollah
need to release the three Israeli prisoners. An urgent review of
other prisoners held in Israel should also be undertaken. Injection
of a multinational peacekeeping force carries considerable risk
since it could trigger a deadly civil conflict, but in the absence
of a strong Lebanese army, and given legitimate Israeli concerns,
it has become a regrettable necessity. Whether it has a limited
mandate (principally verifying adherence to the ceasefire) or a
more robust mandate (to oversee the disarmament of Hezbollah) will
largely depend on the terms of any agreement. A limited mandate
is likely to be the best that can be agreed initially.
5. The flow of arms into the region to parties engaged in the conflict
is a defining factor that fans the flames. Both sides have pointed
to the sponsorship of the other by forces external to the locality
(such as US supply of over $3bn in military aid to Israel, supply
of rockets and other military material to Hezbollah by Iran and
Syria). The international community should place an immediate embargo
on all shipments of weapons to all parties in the war (including
Syria and Iran), and join an international conference to provide
security on the border between Israel and Lebanon. It will also
require the quick imposition of robust sanctions against any party
that refuses to sign or violates these agreements.
6. By endorsing Israel's attacks and explicitly giving it time
to complete its military operations, the US government has become
a party to this violence, which, together with American military
actions in Iraq, is sure to create enmity towards the United States
and Israel in the Muslim world for generations to come. Such enmity
will also be directed towards the United Kingdom, where the government
continues to be paired with US policy in the region. The UK government's
failure to condemn out of hand the atrocities on both sides is disappointing.
The UK government has a responsibility, within the special relationship,
to bring alternative viewpoints to Washington and indeed to put
pressure on Washington to listen to the will of the international
community on this issue.
7. Getting Hamas and Hezbollah to drop their goal of annihilating
Israel will be essential if these two organisations are to enter
normal relations at some point. To do this, the international community
must recognise the elected officials in both Palestine and Lebanon
and deal with them as representatives of the people who voted for
them. When Hamas was first elected, for example, there was a golden
opportunity to welcome the organisation into legitimate politics,
to entice them away from violence and threat, and to give them a
stake in engagement (as happened with a number of Arab states and
indeed the PLO in the past). Instead, by following a strategy of
isolating both organisations, the international community has alienated
not just the extremists, but also the populations that voted for
them.
8. There is also a need to address the underlying sense of injustice
and insecurity felt on both sides. Hezbollah and Hamas both seek
the destruction of the state of Israel, while Israel itself shows
very little commitment to a truly independent Palestinian state,
with proper borders negotiated in terms of the road map. There is
need to get all parties to accept a genuine two-state solution.
This will entail reaching agreement on mutual recognition of borders
and rights to exist, recognition of each other's democratic legitimacy
and recognition of universal human rights and equality of treatment
and opportunity. Any international peace conference will also need
to include all the relevant actors, including Iran and Syria, and
should attempt a Grand Bargain that all parties are required to
sign up to (which would include recognition of Israel and a settlement
once and for all of its borders). Once the other parts of a lasting
peace have been set in place, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission
could be established, following the model used in South Africa.
9. Finally, the United States and Britain have to improve their
own moral condition, a change that would be well-received abroad.
This would mean a return to the rule of law and to the protection
of civil liberties, and an end to efforts to escape from the obligations
of international law in the fight against terrorism.[12]
Washington and London should also throw their weight behind restarting
the Middle East peace process as a matter of urgency.
Endnotes
[1] International Crisis
Group, "Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss",
Middle East Report N°57, 25 July 2006.
[2] See Simon Tisdall, 'Bringing
Iran and Syria in from the cold', The Guardian, 27 July 2006.
[3] See Anthony Cordesman,
'Qana and the lessons for modern war', 31 July 2006, Center for
Strategic and International Studies, http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_progj/task,view/id,724/
[4] Stephen Zunes, 'Congress
and the Israeli Attack on Lebanon: A Critical Reading', FPIF
Policy Report, 22 July 2006. http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3381
For further background on US opinion, see CRS Report for Congress,
"Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah: The Current Conflict", 21 July
2006.
[5] Estimates put the number
of full time fighters within Hezbollah at anywhere from 300 to 1,200.
There are also at least several thousand "reserves" but most have
little real training and experience. See Anthony Cordesman, 'Iran's
Support of the Hezbollah in Lebanon', Center for Strategic and International
Studies, 15 July 2006, http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060715_hezbollah.pdf
[6] See 'Second base 'used
for arms flights'', Press Association, 1 August 2006; http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,,-5986581,00.html;
and Ian Swanson, 'Scottish Secretary 'stopped US planes using Prestwick'',
The Scotsman, 1 August 2006, http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1115192006
[7] This discussion draws
on a blog on the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Web site,
"What is the responsibility of the international community to protect
civilians in the Lebanon crisis?", by Sara Pantuliano, 21 July 2006.
http://blogs.odi.org.uk/blogs/main/archive/2006/07/21/612.aspx
[8] For more on the international
legal dimensions of the current conflict see, 'The Middle East Crisis
and International Law', by Anthony Dworkin, on the Crimes of War
Project Web site, http://www.crimesofwar.org/onnews/news-middleeast.html
and a section on the Human Rights Watch Web site, 'Questions and
Answers on Hostilities Between Israel and Hezbollah', at: http://hrw.org/english/docs/2006/07/17/lebano13748.htm
[9] See the Court ruling
at: http://fl1.findlaw.com/news.findlaw.com/hdocs/docs/tribunals/hamdanrums110804opn.pdf
[10] Judy Dempsey, 'If called
to Lebanon, NATO 'could go in'', International Herald Tribune,
27 July 2006, http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/27/news/nato.php
[11] Regarding US arms supplies
to Israel, see David Cloud and Helene Cooper, 'U.S. Speeds Up Bomb
Delivery for the Israelis', New York Times, 22 July 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/22/world/middleeast/22military.html;
and on UK supplies, see Benjamin Joffe-Walt. 'Made in the UK, bringing
devastation to Lebanon - the British parts in Israel's deadly attack
helicopters', The Guardian, 29 July 2006.
[12] The case for this on
the part of the United States is argued by Stanley Hoffmann, 'The
Foreign Policy the US Needs', The New York Review of Books,
Volume 53, No.13, 10 August 2006.
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