“Dirty
Nukes”: The Threat and the Response
By David Isenberg
In
late February 2003, PBS aired a “Dirty Bombs” documentary on
the science television series, NOVA.[1] This week the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) hosted
in Vienna a three-day International Conference on Security of
Radioactive Sources (March 11-13).[2]
Around 600 representatives from about 100
countries focused on this threat in an attempt to give people a
better understanding of ways to account for and secure these
materials.
All of which raises the question: just how dangerous is the
radiological threat?
Ever since the June 10, 2002 announcement by U.S. Attorney
General John Ashcroft that the U.S. government had arrested a
Chicago street criminal, Jose Padilla, on the charge that he planned to build and
detonate a “dirty bomb” the issue of possible terrorist use of
some sort of radiological dispersal device (RDD) has been a
prominent public concern.[3]
On February 11, Central
Intelligence Agency Director George Tenet testified that the
intelligence community had information pointing to plots that
could include the use of a RDD.[4]
During the recent “Code
Orange” security alert dirty bombs were explicitly mentioned by
Secretary of Homeland Security Thomas Ridge.
The
government views this threat as far more likely than that of an
actual nuclear weapon. In
fact, it was revealed at the IAEA conference that both
U.S. and Russian experts are experimenting with simulated ''dirty
bombs'' to see how such radiation weapons and potential terrorist
tools might work.[5]
According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency:
These radiological weapons are a
combination of conventional explosives and radioactive materials
designed to scatter dangerous and sub-lethal amounts of
radioactive material over a general area. Such radiological
weapons appeal to terrorists because they require very little
technical knowledge to build and deploy compared to that of a
nuclear device. Also, these radioactive materials used widely in
medicine, agriculture, industry and research, are much more
readily available and easy to obtain compared to weapons grade
uranium or plutonium.[6]
Evidence of this proliferation risk includes, for example:
●
Western countries searching in Georgia for potential “dirty
bomb” materials – highly radioactive and mobile nuclear
batteries containing strontium-90;[7]
●
The U.S. oil company Halliburton investigating the
disappearance of radioactive materials used in its operations in
Nigeria;[8]
and
●
The U.S. government sending detection equipment to border
posts in Central Asia and training customs officers in
intercepting nuclear contraband.[9]
In addition, alarmed by reports of al Qaeda’s
progress toward obtaining a nuclear device, the Bush
administration has deployed hundreds of sophisticated sensors to
U.S. borders, overseas facilities, and choke points around
Washington since November 2001.
It has also placed the Delta Force, the nation’s elite
commando unit, on a new standby alert to seize control of nuclear
materials that the sensors may detect.[10]
What
are the dangers?
Contrary to they way they are often labeled in the press RDDs
are not weapons of mass destruction. Few, if any, people would
die immediately after exposure to the ionizing radiation from an
RDD. However, the use of such a ‘dirty’ bomb would
undoubtedly spread panic and produce severe economic damage, due
to extensive cleanup difficulties.
Techniques for dealing with radioactive contamination
rely largely on demolition and removal, but the long-term
effects and clean-up procedures are complex as well as
expensive. There
is currently confusion and disagreement, for example,
about the long-term health effects of low-level radiation. In
addition, dirty bombs may contain a variety of different
materials, causing unique synergistic effects that might be very
difficult to understand or address.
Because it will be difficult to assess the long-term public
health effects of exposure from an RDD, public health care and
protection planning is very challenging. Determining publicly
acceptable levels of cleanup will likely be very controversial
as well.
Fortunately, there is reason to believe that much of
the concern over dirty bombs is exaggerated.
In terms of practicality, it is much easier said than
done. To
disperse significant radioactivity over an area of, say,
1 square mile, the initial concentration within a small bomb
would have to be roughly 10 million times greater and would
quickly kill the terrorists trying to assemble the material.
The radioactivity also creates large amounts of heat
energy sufficient to melt most containers.
But
that is not the same as saying there is no reason for concern.
For the economic and public health and safety reasons
mentioned above, the security of radioactive material deserves
greater attention. According to the IAEA many
radioactive sources are not generally subject to tight security
measures; such measures have traditionally been limited to
preventing accidental access or petty theft (e.g.
of shielding materials). Traditional security measures
aim to prevent unauthorized access to radioactive sources; such
access is facilitated when sources are misplaced, forgotten,
lost or insecurely stored.
Regulatory
controls on sources
In
the United States
the vast majority of radioactive sources are under the
control of competent governmental regulatory authorities.[11]
Nevertheless, there are many sources that have never been
subject to regulatory control, or were initially regulated but
have since been abandoned, lost, misplaced, stolen or otherwise
removed without authorization; these are termed ‘orphan
sources’. Because of their availability and lack of
control, such orphan sources pose a risk of being used for
malevolent purposes,
while the modern terrorists apparent indifference to their own
safety means that the risks of handling powerful radioactive
sources can no longer be seen as an effective deterrent.
According to a recent report[12]
by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies:
- Only a small fraction of the
radioactive sources in use today pose inherently high
security risks, and the great majority of these are under
regulatory control in advanced countries.
- The production of commercial
radioactive sources is concentrated in a handful of
countries and enterprises, creating regulatory opportunities
to ensure adequate security in recipient states.
- U.S. and Canadian export
licensing rules, typical of suppliers, permit the export of
most high-risk sources without any governmental review of
the credentials of end-users. Pending new regulations,
Canada has alerted exporters to verify the bona fides of
end-users, but the U.S. has not.
Legislative
initiatives
Recently
Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Lugar said he will reintroduce
the Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threat Reduction Act. The
bill authorizes the Secretary of State to takes measures to
support international programs to detect and prevent acts
of nuclear or radiological terrorism.
He first introduced the bill last October with Foreign Relations
ranking member Joseph Biden, D-DE., who was then committee
chairman. It would provide temporary facilities in up to five
countries for radioactive storage; accelerate discovery,
inventory and recovery of unwanted radioactive material; replace
former Soviet lighthouses, weather stations and other facilities
using RTGs; provide training for radiological emergencies;
require a global radiological threat assessment; develop
non-radioactive alternatives to radiological uses; and appoint a
special representative to coordinate U.S. efforts worldwide.
Several lawmakers, including Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.,
have introduced bills that seek to ensure that radioactive
material in the United States does not fall into the wrong
hands. Clinton's bill, the Dirty
Bomb Prevention Act of 2003,
(S. 350), which is co-sponsored by Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H.,
amends the the
Atomic Energy Act of 1954 and calls
for the creation of a task force chaired by the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission to prevent a dirty bomb attack in the
United States. Specifically,
the task force is to “evaluate
the security of sensitive radioactive material against security
threats; and, recommend administrative and legislative actions
to be taken to provide the maximum practicable degree of
security against security threats.”
Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass.,
is sponsoring a similar bill
on the House side. He said there are more than 2 million
radioactive sources in the United States, used for medical
procedures, research, and industrial processes.
In the past 5 years, nearly 1500 radioactive sources have
been reported lost or stolen in the U.S., but less than half of
them have been found. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
has admitted that it stopped tracking radioactive sources by
serial number in 1984.[13]
The lawmakers want the NRC to oversee a classification and
tracking system for the recovery and storage of unused
radioactive sources. Specifically, the bill requires the NRC to
set up a task force which would recommend regulatory changes to
be implemented:
-
Ensure there are audits, inspections, and penalties for those
who mishandle radioactive sources;
-
Increase physical security for facilities that store these
materials and require security background checks for
personnel with access to them;
-
Establish a system that would require anyone buying or
leasing a radioactive source to pay a refundable deposit
that they would get back when they returned the source
safely;
-
Evaluate U.S. export controls on these materials to ensure
that they do not fall into the wrong hands overseas;
and
-
Assess whether there are some uses of radioactive materials
that could be easily accomplished using other, less
dangerous materials.
The
NRC reports that among the 375 sources that are lost or stolen
each year, 60 percent have yet to be recovered.
Likewise,
a European Union (EU) study estimated that some 70 sources each
year are lost from regulatory control in the EU.[14]
The
IAEA has said that more than 100 nations have inadequate control
and monitoring programs to prevent or detect the theft of these
materials. In his opening address
to this week’s Conference, the IAEA Director General noted
that the IAEA’s Illicit Trafficking Database includes over 280
confirmed incidents since 1993 involving radioactive sources and
that much remains to be done to improve the security of
radioactive sources worldwide.[15]
In addition to the Clinton-Gregg and Markey bills, Sen. Mary
Landrieu, D-La., is sponsoring legislation (S. 193) that calls
for a radioactive detection system demonstration project for the
nation's seaports. And a section in Minority Leader Daschle's
Homeland Security Act (S. 6) deals with radioactive material.
[1]
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3007_dirtybom.html
[2]
International Conference on Security of Radioactive Sources, http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/Meetings/2003/infcn113.shtml
and http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/Press/Focus/RadSources
[3]
Ashcroft referred to Padilla by his
adopted name of Abdullah al Muhajir, calling him "an al-Qaida
operative," and said his arrest "disrupted an
unfolding terrorist plot to attack the United States." Few
others in the administration saw Padilla as such a threat. Many
thought Ashcroft was grandstanding. His appearances were
severely curtailed. Still, Ashcroft's Justice Department has
fought to keep Padilla and another U.S. citizen - Yasser Esam
Hamdi, who was captured in Afghanistan - in custody as
"enemy combatants" without such rights accorded to
citizens as consultation with an attorney or a hearing to seek
bail. The government has moved the two to Southern states so
their cases can be heard in the conservative 4th Circuit, which
includes Maryland.
[4]
DCI's Worldwide Threat Briefing , “The Worldwide Threat in
2003: Evolving Dangers in a Complex World,” 11 February 2003, http://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/dci_speech_02112003.html
The Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies published a chart providing a
comprehensive listing of reports concerning al-Qa`ida's
involvement with chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear
weapons in the period between 1997 and December 2002, http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/sjm_cht.htm
[5]
Charles J. Hanley, “U.S., Russian experts quietly testing
`dirty bombs' in growing effort to combat terror threat,”
Associated Press, March 14, 2003.
[6]
“Nuclear and Radiological Attack,” http://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/security.pdf,
in Are You
Ready? A Guide to Citizen Preparedness, Federal Emergency
Management Agency.
[7]
Ian Traynor,
“West
scours Georgia for nuclear trash,” The Guardian,
March
27, 2002.
[8]
“Radiological Weapons: U.S. Oil Company Investigating
Missing Nigerian Radioactive Material,” March 10, 2003, http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/newswires/2003_3_10.html#1
[9]
Charles J. Hanley, “Central
Asia emerges as source of 'dirty bomb',”
Washington Times, June 15, 2002.
[10]
Barton Gellman,
“Fears Prompt
U.S. to Beef Up Nuclear Terror Detection,” Washington
Post ,
March 3, 2002; p. A1.
[11]
This is not something that can be said about the rest of the
world. More than half
of the world's nations (more than 100) have inadequate regulatory
systems.
[12]
Charles D. Ferguson, Tahseen Kazi, and Judith Perera, Commercial
Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security Risks, Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International
Studies,, Occasional Paper No. 11,
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/opapers/op11/index.htm
[13]
Statement of Edward J. Markey (D-MA) on the Introduction of the
Dirty Bomb Prevention Act, February 11, 2003. H.R. 897. A bill to
establish a task force to evaluate and make recommendations with
respect to the security of sealed sources of radioactive materials,
and for other purposes. Bill was introduced on Feb. 25, 2003.
http://www.cns.miis.edu/cr/03_03_03.htm#nonproA
[14]
IAEA, Inadequate Control of World’s Radioactive Sources, http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/Press/Focus/Radsources/rads_factsheet.pdf
[15]
Mohamed
ElBaradei, Statement to the International Conference on Security
of Radioactive Sources, http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/Press/Statements/2003/ebsp2003n007.shtml