10 FEBRUARY 2001 • NUMBER 76 • ISSN 0966-9175

• NATO FOREIGN MINISTERS ADOPT LIMITED PROPOSALS ON ARMS CONTROL

• 2001 INTERNATIONAL CALENDAR OF EVENTS

NATO Foreign Ministers Adopt Limited
Proposals on Arms Control

By Tom McDonald 

NATO diplomats are touting their new report on arms control as the first of its kind since the end of the Cold War, with the last alliance policy review embodied in the 1989 Comprehensive Concept of Arms Control.

NATO foreign ministers adopted the report on options for confidence and security building measures, verification, non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament during their winter ministerial meeting, held in Brussels Dec. 14-15.

Originally mandated by paragraph 32 of the final communiqué‚ issue at NATO's 50th anniversary summit in April 1999, the document is the result of ongoing allied debate about possible new directions for NATO nuclear policy launched in 1998 by German and Canadian proposals.

NATO diplomats were keen to point out the "integrated" and "comprehensive" nature of the new document, which was entitled "Report on Options for Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBMs), Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament."

"The report is more ambitious than we anticipated it would be when we started our work," a member of the Polish delegation to NATO told BASIC Reports.

The report is divided into three broad sections: an analysis of recent developments in the conventional, nuclear, biological and chemical arms control fields; a statement of alliance principles on arms control; and a collection of forward-looking possible measures - the options mandated by the 1999 Strategic Concept.

Most attention, both inside and outside the alliance, has been focused on the third section of forward-looking recommendations, especially in light of the new steps towards nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament agreed at the Non-Proliferation Treaty 2000 Review Conference.

The recommendations, in turn, are divided into policy statements and initiatives on nuclear proliferation, transparency and multilateral consultations. Also included are recommendations for several future NATO-Russia initiatives, earmarked for discussion and implementation through the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council (PJC). Established by a 1997 Founding Act, the PJC is the only formal body for consultation and cooperation between NATO and Russia, and meets in Brussels on a regular basis.

"We welcome this report - it is an important step and we look forward to taking forward the proposals for joint action with Russia," said one NATO diplomat.

The NATO-Russia initiatives comprise four specific proposals for joint confidence- and security-building measures: enhanced dialogue on matters relating to nuclear forces; information exchange regarding the readiness status of nuclear forces; information exchange on nuclear weapon safety issues; and data exchange on U.S. and Russian sub-strategic nuclear forces.

"There are expectations in particular vis-…-vis the proposals addressed to Russia," noted the Polish official. "The ball is in their court now and we hope that they will react positively, because the implementation of the proposals is in the interest of both NATO and Russia. If a similar view prevails in Moscow, we may have tangible results quite quickly, perhaps even next year, but we have to remember that it took a year and a half for the alliance to work out these initiatives."

Privately, several allied diplomats noted some concern about the reliance of the NATO-Russia initiatives on the smooth functioning of the PJC - something which has not always been the case. During the Kosovo conflict, for example, the PJC did not meet at all. Russia refused to hold meetings as a symbol of its disapproval of NATO's conduct.

The allied diplomats further acknowledged that the PJC will remain vulnerable to any political change in NATO-Russia relations, such as the possible enlargement of the alliance at the next NATO summit, tentatively slated to take place in Prague in the fall of 2002.

One Russian official told BASIC Reports that Moscow would need time to study these proposals and that it might be desirable to work on them in the future as part of a more formal arrangement. One sign of Russia's current willingness to work cooperatively on nuclear weapons issues was the Dec. 16 announcement by then U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov of an agreement aimed at strengthening cooperation to prevent accidental missile launchings. This updated an initial early-warning system set up by former U.S. President Bill Clinton and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, a Jan. 3 report by Reuters, charging that Russia was deploying sub-strategic nuclear weapons into its Kaliningrad, enclave reveals the continuing challenges to cooperative work on this issue.

The new NATO report also contains a section on transparency, including a commitment to "meaningful public outreach to interested individuals and groups," as well as a willingness to "broaden its engagement with interested non-governmental organizations, academic institutions and the general public."

A diplomat from the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office told BASIC Reports, "We are pleased that NATO has decided to make public the results of this review and to re-commit itself to outreach to publics and non-governmental organizations."

However, one allied diplomat pointed out that under the proposal to exchange data on sub-strategic nuclear weapons with Russia, NATO could hand over information about the size and locations of the U.S. sub-strategic nuclear arsenal in Europe to Moscow without that information being available to NATO publics or parliaments. "Several member states with public commitments to transparency would find this difficult to justify," he noted.

In their final North Atlantic Council communiqué, which was held up by arguments over language relating to the future use of NATO assets and capabilities by the European Union, foreign ministers welcomed the report's publication and tasked "the Council in permanent session to pursue vigorously implementation of the recommendations contained in this report, including with Russia through the PJC."

Only two allies - Canada and Norway - mentioned the so-called paragraph 32 report in their ministerial interventions, but NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson praised it as "a good report" in his summation of the private session.

"We are also pleased that this process has concluded with a set of modest, but practical, suggestions for furthering dialogue between NATO and Russia on nuclear weapons issues. We look forward to pursuing these ideas through the Permanent Joint Council in the new year," the British Foreign Ministry official noted.

A NATO spokesman told BASIC Reports that NATO "had fulfilled the mandate set by the Washington summit, and is committed to openness with regard to its policies on weapons of mass destruction."

While striking an optimistic tone in public, several diplomats from those countries initiating the review nonetheless admitted that the process had not taken the direction they had intended: towards a comprehensive re-look at NATO nuclear policy. Such a fundamental policy review now is considered unlikely until after the U.S. government finishes its own nuclear review at the end of the year.

Christopher Westdal, Canadian Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, told BASIC Reports that "Canada was very active in pressing for this review. We see this as the end of the review but the beginning of the implementation. We will remain active in the alliance, seeking to explore these options and enhance the alliance's commitment to arms control and disarmament." 

2001 INTERNATIONAL CALENDAR OF EVENTS

This edition of BASIC Reports is edited by Theresa Hitchens in Washington.

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