23 OCTOBER 1998 • NUMBER 66 • ISSN 0966-9175

• NATO FORMULATING NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT

• POLISH ARMS SMUGGLERS VIOLATED UN EMBARGOES

• ...BUILD...DIVERSIFY...EXPAND...MATURE...GROW...

NATO Formulating New Strategic Concept

By Martin Butcher

Preparations for next year’s NATO Summit of Heads of State and Government are moving into high gear as NATO nations begin scrutinizing a first draft of the Alliance's new Strategic Concept. The draft document was prepared by NATO international staff and circulated to member states in advance of the informal meeting of Defense Ministers in Vilamoura, Portugal on 24-25 September. NATO plans to unveil the updated mission statement at the April 1999 Washington Summit commemorating the Alliance’s 50th anniversary. While many of the key principles are still being negotiated, BASIC Reports recently spoke with NATO staff and diplomats from member states about the major points of debate.

Agreed at the 1991 Rome Summit, the existing Strategic Concept is extremely outdated, particularly in its focus on the Soviet threat. Early in the process, the desired extent of the revisions was the subject of heated debate. Some favored simply replacing the words "Soviet Union" with "Russia" and adding peacekeeping. At the other end of the spectrum, the United States and others favored a complete rewrite of the Concept to address issues such as counter-terrorism, out-of-area operations and counter-proliferation. It now appears that the Alliance will take a middle road, using the current structure as a framework on which to hang a series of new ideas demonstrating ongoing changes to NATO’s role in the 1990s and beyond.

Interpreting territorial defense
Territorial defense, the original role of the Alliance embedded in Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty, will remain NATO’s core task. However, interpretation of Article V remains a matter of contention. Washington is pushing for a wide interpretation that would allow action against terrorists, nuclear, chemical and biological weapon proliferators and other threats in Europe and beyond.

Other proposals recommend a restructuring of NATO forces to eliminate the distinction between reaction, augmentation and main defense forces. Instead of relying on sheer force strength, the Alliance would emphasize the ability to react quickly to crises, an element which has been critically absent in Bosnia and Kosovo.

No consensus on out-of-area operations
The Clinton Administration is eager for NATO to formalize a military role outside Alliance borders, ideally without specific UN Security Council authorization for each mission. On 1 October, Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon told a press conference that, "The US view has always been that NATO has the right to act on its own – the right and the obligation to act on its own in matters of European security." However, most European allies are reluctant to extend NATO’s military responsibility beyond Europe’s borders. In late August, French President Jacques Chirac warned against transforming NATO into what he called a "Holy Alliance" with a sweeping mandate for intervention. "France wouldn't accept that," he said. "That's why it insists, together with virtually all its European partners, on the need for a Security Council mandate for every NATO military intervention."

Under strong US pressure, the new NATO strategy will likely address the need to deal with out-of-area threats, while acknowledging the desirability of securing Security Council approval. However, the strategy may also outline procedures under which an operation could be guided by international legal institutions outside of the United Nations.

The perceived threat’s proximity to Western Europe would likely determine the extent of NATO action. However, in the case of more distant operations, such as the Persian Gulf, NATO facilities and assets could be used. The Combined Joint Task Force concept will allow the formation of ad hoc coalitions of willing parties for this purpose.

On the issue of leadership, France has launched a major effort to give European nations grouped within the European Security and Defence Identity (ESDI) a much greater role within NATO’s Strategic Concept. This would pave the way for European-led operations, given US approval, and could provide the necessary forces to flesh out the military end of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy. The United Kingdom is reportedly prepared to agree to an enhanced European role within NATO on the condition that the Western European Union (WEU) be abolished. It is too early to judge if these proposed changes will be reflected in the new Strategic Concept.

Nuclear strategy
At its core, NATO is a defensive alliance based on a strategy of nuclear deterrence. Over the last decade, the Alliance has substantially reduced the role of nuclear weapons, particularly where tactical nuclear forces are concerned. However, proposed changes to the nuclear elements of the Strategic Concept have largely been dismissed, especially by Washington.

While there were rumors circulating of a "non-paper" calling for the removal of all US nuclear weapons from Europe, such a dramatic turn of events appears unlikely. Lingering fears of instability in Russia, the recent nuclear tests by India and Pakistan and the specter of other nuclear proliferators have all bolstered support for leaving the nuclear paragraphs of the Concept largely untouched. One official told BASIC Reports that, "Things work reasonably well, so why change them?"

Proposals for including a no first use clause in the new strategy have also met with a cold reception in Washington, with criticisms directed at the potential for such a concept to undermine the Alliance’s deterrence strategy. On the other hand, numerous NATO allies are certain to resist US calls for the Concept to include pre-emptive counter-proliferation against Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). European nations remain doubtful of the legality of such operations, as well as their effectiveness.

NATO expansion
Although expansion of the Alliance is not formally part of the Strategic Concept review process, it is expected that the final document will spell out the role of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) and the Enhanced Partnership for Peace. The NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council (PJC) will also figure prominently. Inclusion of such clauses signals NATO's desire to increase the prominence of these fora, while also avoiding the controversy that would no doubt result if their mention was omitted from such an historic document.

Analysts do not expect NATO to name any further candidates or provide a timetable for further expansion of the Alliance at the April meeting. However, the Summit document may offer practical measures for countries seeking membership, including joint military exercises, liaison offices and detailed consultations on adaptation of military and political-military structures.

Stephen Young and Angie Darnell contributed to this report from Washington and Brussels.

Polish Arms Smugglers Violated UN Embargoes

By Jorgen Dragsdahl

Warsaw. Polish authorities have exposed a smuggling operation responsible for illegally shipping nearly US $6 million worth of light weapons and ammunition, some to countries under UN arms embargoes. Five former and current directors of two Warsaw-based arms export companies were arrested on 29 September in connection with the case. While sources close to the investigation have told BASIC Reports that Poland has since tightened procedures to prevent such trafficking, other sources claim that the recent bust is "only the tip of the iceberg."

While Poland has strict rules governing arms exports, the case raises serious doubts about enforcement, as well as questions about formal and informal ties between the accused companies and Polish officials. Cenzin, a state-run arms trading company, owns 80 percent of Cenrex, a major arms exporter and the largest of the Polish companies involved in the illegal deals. Steo, the other company implicated in the scandal, belongs to a private entrepreneur. However, Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland's largest newspaper, has reported that Steo also has links to Polish intelligence.

Arms smuggled to conflict regions
BASIC Reports has learned that the illegal activities grew out of legal transfers of surplus Polish stocks to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in the early 1990s. Some weapons intended for the newly independent Baltic states were diverted by middlemen and never reached their intended destinations. In Poland, Cenrex and Steo filed the appropriate paperwork and secured official approval to transfer the weapons to a Latvian company. While an official in the Latvian Ministry of Defense confirmed receipt of the shipments, the weapons never in fact reached Latvia. Instead, while at sea, the weapons were off-loaded to other vessels and transported to Somalia and Croatia, both subject to UN arms embargoes at the time, while others were shipped to Sudan.

From 1992 to 1994, Cenrex allegedly exported 1,000 AK-47 assault rifles, 14,000 TT handguns, 160 grenade launchers, 100 Taurus revolvers and millions of rounds of ammunition. During 1995 and 1996, the Steo company smuggled 2,000 rifles, 10,000 TT handguns and one million rounds of ammunition through Latvia into Estonia. From there, the weapons were sold on the black market to mafia-type groups. Some of the handguns have since been recovered in Russia, Germany and Poland, and even as far away as Japan.

Jacek Spyt, prosecutor in the harbor city of Gdansk, through which most of the shipments traveled, told BASIC Reports that, "We have proof that the Polish firms knew what they were doing." The five suspects have been charged with illegal arms trading, accepting bribes, smuggling and falsifying customs documents. If convicted, they face up to 12 years in prison.

Ongoing investigation
Authorities were first alerted to the traffic in May 1996 when two men who claimed to be transporting food were stopped at a border crossing between Estonia and Latvia. They were arrested after border officials discovered that their Volvo van in fact contained 1,600 handguns.

As a result of the discovery, officials from the Estonian secret police approached their Polish counterparts and together launched an international investigation involving several countries and special services. "We received a signal, and it was not ignored," Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, then Polish internal affairs minister and now chairman of a parliamentary committee supervising secret services told BASIC Reports. "Our services then had to determine precisely the names of the companies and people that illegally sold arms; they had to gather information on recipients, smuggling channels and countries to which the arms were taken later on."

Coordination lacking
Siemiatkowski blames lax control procedures at the time for facilitating the illicit transfers. In an interview with BASIC Reports he recounted that, "We were interested in what countries arms were going to and did not check on the firms." That proved to be a critical oversight, since the Latvian firm, although it had been involved in prior legal transfers, no longer had the necessary authorization. According to Siemiatkowski, Poland’s military intelligence service, WSI, bears the bulk of responsibility for the scandal. "The guilt clearly lies with WSI," he says. "The arms came from military mobilization depots…and WSI should have checked the recipient firm in Latvia."

The scandal clearly highlights the importance of domestic control procedures and border controls at the national, regional and global levels. Acknowledging the lessons to be learned from the recent case, Siemiatkowski emphasized that, "we must look more carefully at all deals going through private companies." However, he is satisfied by the procedures now in place in Poland, noting that, "All systems have faults, but ours is ideal compared to other states in the region," such as Russia and Ukraine.

Jorgen Dragsdahl is a Danish journalist based in Poland.

...Build...Diversify...Expand...Mature...Grow

Please join BASIC in welcoming new staff members this fall!

Martin Butcher is a Visiting Fellow at BASIC this autumn. He is on sabbatical from the Centre for European Security and Development (CESD) in Brussels, where he serves as director.

Sally Chin joins BASIC as a research assistant for weapons trade work. She is a recent graduate from the London School of Economics, where she earned her Master’s degree in Comparative Politics.

Bill Gerard will serve as Senior Fellow for European Security for the next two years. He previously served as Senior Officer in the Armaments division of the US delegation to NATO.

Michael Kraig is BASIC’s 1998-99 Scoville Fellow. He is a doctoral candidate at SUNY Buffalo, and currently researches Year 2000 compliance issues as they pertain to nuclear weapons.

Thomas Neve is BASIC’s new analyst for nuclear issues in the London office. He comes to BASIC from C-SPAN, a non-profit US cable network that provides coverage of US Congress and other public affairs.

Julianne Smith joins BASIC as Senior Analyst for European Security in the Washington office. She most recently managed the development of policy studies for the European Commission and Parliament with a German organization.

Elizabeth Weber is an Executive & Research Assistant with BASIC. She is a recent graduate of University of Wales, Aberystwyth, where she received her Master’s degree in Strategic Studies.

Brian Wood is a Senior Fellow with BASIC until September 1999. He is on sabbatical from Amnesty International, where he serves as a campaign coordinator at the International Secretariat based in London.

This edition of BASIC Reports was edited by Susannah Dyer in Calgary. 

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