BASIC's Project on Getting
to Zero
Working Towards a Nuclear Weapon-Free World
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Review Conference, New York, 3-28 May 2010
Day Six
Anne Penketh, BASIC Program Director
10 May 2010
The prospect of a shift in the North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation's position on tactical nuclear weapons
in Europe in 2010 was the subject of a BASIC event held at
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference.
Ambassador James Goodby, senior fellow at
the Hoover Institution and BASIC Board member pointed out
that the debate within NATO is taking place against a backdrop
of the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons. Consequently,
he said, he believed that NATO's final decision after the
Strategic Concept Review is unlikely to be the continuation
of the status quo.
Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear
Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists,
and source of many of the published figures on NATO's deployments,
agreed that the Obama administration is "quite strong"
on the possible withdrawal of the estimated 200 gravity bombs
from five countries in Europe. He said that the fact that
the administration is linking the fate of the weapons to talks
with Russia is "an odd attempt to turn events around
because Nato has been happy to move unilaterally in the past"
by removing tactical nuclear weapons from the UK and Greece.
Paul Ingram, BASIC Executive Director, looked
at the deployment of the weapons under the terms of the NPT,
saying that "the legal basis for nuclear burden-sharing
is questionable under Article I and II" of the treaty,
so had an impact on diplomatic negotiations around the NPT.
He highlighted the lack of military justification for the
deployment of the B61 bombs in Europe, further weakening NATO's
diplomacy. The idea that following their withdrawal, NATO
would collapse because the US is no longer committed to Europe
"is not a strong argument", and rather unrealistic. He
warned that on the contrary, if the status quo is left in
place, unilateral withdrawal is more likely because of domestic
political and financial pressures. "If that happens,
it will weaken the alliance because it will produce consolidation
by stealth", by moving the weapons out of states that
wish them to be removed. He added that it was "far from
impossible" that the bases would remain (leaving open
the possibility of future deployment) but that the weapons
would be removed to the United States.
He noted that the precedent of Presidential
Nuclear Initiatives, unilateral statements announced in 1991
by the US and Russian presidents, are being mentioned as a
possible framework for the removal of tactical weapons from
Europe rather than a treaty which would require ratification.
 Nickolas
Roth, program director of the Alliance for Nuclear Accountability,
considered the Congressional funding of feasibility studies
for the modernization of the B61 bombs in Europe. This year
the budget request is "four times the amount of last
year's request", and likely to amount to around $2bn
for the life extension of the warhead. The costs have risen
because the weapons labs will be looking at modifying the
warheads and substantial replacement of components. He noted
that 34 Senators (or one third of the Senate) are directly
impacted by funding for nuclear weapons. Why does President
Obama go along with the weapons labs directors? Because, according
to Mr Roth, he needs two thirds of the Senate to vote for
New START.
The panel also discussed safety and security aspects connected to the tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.
Later on Monday, BASIC hosted a strategy
and coordination session of US and European non-governmental
organizations whose work is focused on the removal of the
tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.
Anne Penketh is currently attending the
NPT RevCon in New York.
Back to BASIC's main page on the NPT
RevCon 2010
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Working Towards a Nuclear Weapon-Free World
BASIC's work is made possible by the generous support
of our donors: the Ploughshares
Fund, the Ford Foundation,
the Joseph Rowntree Charitable
Trust, the William and
Flora Hewlett Foundation, Polden Puckham Charitable Foundation,
Marmot Trust, Allan and Nesta Ferguson Foundation, Network
for Social Change, the Nuclear
Education Trust, Rockefeller Family & Associates,
and individual contributors to BASIC. We are grateful to all
of them for their support.
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