The 2000 NPT Review
Conference (RevCon)
14 April - 19 May 2000, New York
Presentations By
Non-Governmental
Organizations (NGOs)
Nuclear Weapons Can and Must Be Banned:
The View from Russia
Speaker: Dr. Lev Feoktistov
Throughout nearly the entire history of nuclear weapons development, the
Soviet Union (Russia) has been a proponent of their reduction, up to a
complete universal elimination. Apart from the humane considerations,
the question has always remained as to where, when, and in what specific
circumstances should one use nuclear weapons without breaking the
commonly accepted concepts of decency, logic, and advisability. The
Americans lost the war in Vietnam, the Soviet Union lost a long,
exhausting, high-toll war in Afghanistan, but neither one employed
nuclear weapons, or even considered that possibility. The USA came to
Kuwait’s rescue, carried out military operations against Iraq, backed
by the international community, with its own air and naval power, but
did not use nuclear weapons.
NATO, led by the United
States, clearly in violation of its authority and the UN Charter,
unleashed the war in Yugoslavia, bombing Belgrade and other cities. The
Russian people are utterly indignant and express their complete sympathy
with their Slavic brothers. The potential of an alliance between
Yugoslavia and Russia, akin to that with Belorussia, was quite seriously
discussed. The only thing lacking was concrete military help, or even a
most general hint at the fact that Russia, by the way, possesses nuclear
capabilities.
We have attempted to come
up with hypothetical examples that would illustrate what conceivable
life circumstances would force one to use nuclear weapons, would justify
the tremendous concentration of destructive power, of radioactivity,
capable of turning the Earth instantaneously into hell. We did not find
such examples, for the simple reason: the main function of nuclear
weapons does not lie in the solution of a military task on the
battlefield, but in the destruction of cities, industry, in mass
annihilation of people, which, in turn, is in profound contradiction
with the morals and the very essence of the purpose of human existence.
An indirect argument of
this universal truth is the inability up to now of any nuclear
strategist to clearly delineate the distinct quantitative prospects for
the future: how many warheads do we need to maintain in permanent
arsenals to ensure world stability: 1, 10, 100, 1000, or more? What we
are dealing with is a failure to come up with a substantiated
range of the value. In physics it would signify complete failure, lack
of a valid idea. Time-wise, the situation is the same: a sluggish
beginning (START-2, 3) and a far-from-defined end. Nevertheless,
statements, such as, "Russia will perish without nuclear weapons,
from the hand of the United States, China, etc.," persist. By all
indications, the sentiment is symmetrical in the United States.
"One can deal with Russians, as well as the Chinese, Iraqis, and
other Asians, only from the position of strength, with a nuclear baton
in hand."
Basic common sense gets
lost in the emotional nuances of such statements. The question is, why
does the United States, even if it intends to conquer Russia, need a
land devastated by nuclear fire, with demolished cities and industry,
angry and sick people?
We are told, there are no
weapons which, once born, will ever die. First of all, it is not true:
Chemical weapons have been banned; secondly, nuclear weapons possess
attributes of the absolute, which is something that did not exist
before. Their unrestrained use could cause all life on Earth to cease.
Today we painfully lament the hundreds of lives lost over the months of
the Chechen war. In the event of any more or less sizable nuclear war,
the numbers would run into millions in a matter of an hour.
In the final analysis, we
never found a reasonable argument which could define the place of
nuclear weapons, apart from emotional, psychological and philosophical
motives, which are widespread and have to be reckoned with. We must
confront them with rational reasoning.
And I challenge anyone to
suggest the global idea, or purpose, for the sake of which it would be
acceptable to sacrifice just one city, say, New York, to just one
hydrogen bomb.
Very recent and memorable
is the time when the work of a state leader was evaluated not only for
economic achievements but also for successes in the realm of foreign
policy. The anti-military and, first and foremost, anti-nuclear
achievements were particularly prestigious. They were met with
enthusiasm by the people, being in tune with their frame of mind and
memories of the victims and the role of the European liberator in the
1941-1945 war. We have talked from high podiums, at length and with
gusto, about disarmament, nuclear reductions, test bans, and done
precisely the opposite. In the attempt to catch up with the United
States, we have accumulated over 40,000 tons of chemical weapons, 80,000
tanks - more than is owned by the rest of the world’s nations. We have
millions of artillery shells and mines which are way past their shelf
life, and over 40,000 nuclear and hydrogen bombs. In the heat of the
competition, few ever gave a thought to why we need so much. At that
time, very popular was a song by Vladimir Vysotskiy, "And as for
us, we are making rockets, we are damming the Yenisei," and, as the
ballad goes, "we are ahead of the entire planet." Tons of
money has been spent on all these armaments, and over 70% of the
industrial resources of the USSR.
Only with the advent of
the new ideology, new leaders, and M.S. Gorbachev’s perestroika
did we begin to understand the absurdity of the situation which had
emerged, and were horrified at the estimates which showed that in order
to eliminate this massive pile of armaments, we would need at least as
much as had been invested in their creation, i.e. dozens of billions of
dollars.
M.S. Gorbachev took a
decisive stand on the nuclear disarmament issue. In 1985, he proposed
and, more importantly, began to implement the program of complete
nuclear weapons elimination by the year 2000. It was a phased-in
program, strictly tied to a time schedule. Unfortunately, in early
1990s, the program vanished just like the Soviet Union itself. It is no
longer even remembered.
Let me remind you that
not so long ago our government used to promote the slogan of "no
first use of nuclear weapons." At the beginning of 2000, the new
"Russian Federation National Security Concept" was adopted, in
accordance with which the army is instructed to use nuclear weapons
"in the event of repelling an act of armed aggression, should all
other means of resolving the crisis be exhausted and prove
ineffective." As we see, the formula is vague and does not permit
an unambiguous interpretation. This leads us to a question, "Does
the protracted war in Chechnya, with the bandit-like attempts to
penetrate into Dagestan, give cause for us to use nuclear weapons if we
were to formally follow the ‘Concept’?"
A new, justifying
philosophy is emerging as well. There was a time when Stalin was still
in power when we proposed a ban on nuclear weapons. The great minds,
such as Einstein and Russell, fervently advocated against nuclear war,
warning everyone of a global demise.
What answer did we
receive? "No. You have a strong army, we will not be able to deal
with it without nuclear weapons." Today it looks like the roles
have been reversed, and now it is us saying that Russia can protect its
independence only with the help of nuclear weapons.
Russia faces a decisive
turning point: it will either choose to strengthen and build up its
armed forces, or it will follow the route of integration and friendship
with the rest of the world. An important role in this decision will be
played by public opinion in the European countries and in the United
States.
It is very hard to
understand why America, with its strong naval and airforce capabilities,
state-of-the-art missiles, separated from the rest of the world by two
oceans, is not taking decisive steps towards complete nuclear
disarmament. The only conceivable (in principle) real threat to the
American people that could come from other countries lies in missiles
with nuclear warheads. The START-2 and START-3 treaties help make
progress toward disarmament, but they lack the necessary degree of
completion.
The barrier between
nuclear and non-nuclear nations is precarious, as evidenced by the
transformation of India and Pakistan from non-nuclear into nuclear
nations that took place right before our eyes. Article VI of the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty pertaining to complete nuclear disarmament,
which would eliminate the distinction between nuclear and non-nuclear
states, is not being observed. We worry when other countries obtain
nuclear capabilities, but there is nothing we can do about it, because
we understand their concern with their own safety.
The United States would
fulfill its historic mission if it were to pronounce the elimination of
nuclear weapons, complete global nuclear disarmament, and not in general
terms, but by a specific date, say, 2010. The world community would
benefit tremendously from such an action. Russia would no longer need to
support its strategic forces, which eat up a significant portion of its
military budget. What need would we have for intercontinental missiles,
both ground-launched and sea-launched, which are so complex and
expensive, if they are not equipped with nuclear warheads and as such
will not affect the outcome of a war?
The need for ballistic
missile defenses, on which the United States so ardently insists, and
which therefore contributes a factor of agitation in their interaction
with Russia, would naturally disappear. It is clear to us that no ABM
system possesses the required high degree of reliability. It can be
overpowered by a build-up of standard offensive means, which is much
cheaper to do. At the same time, U.S. intentions to build an ABM system,
and even its talk about it, is pushing Russia to augment its military
potential.
The talk about National
Missile Defense being created not against Russia but to ward off
terrorists and maniacal dictators is not being treated seriously.
Indeed, isn’t it a little too expensive to create a national missile
defense system, which is meant to prevent a highly improbable event? It
is easier for a terrorist to smuggle into the United States a nuclear
mini-bomb in a "sack of sugar" than to build a long-range
missile, and as for a maniac leader with a disturbed psyche, he will
think a hundred times before launching a single missile only to receive
a thousand-fold retaliation back on his own head.
Under any circumstance,
the emergence of unforeseen circumstances involving the use of nuclear
weapons is less probable in a nuclear-free world, with global monitoring
in place to prevent the emergence of nuclear weapons which is strict and
equally obligatory for both former nuclear and non-nuclear states.
International controls can be effective only if there are no exceptions
and if the rules are the same for everyone.
Thus nuclear weapons have
outlived their historic mission. The sphere of application of nuclear
and hydrogen bombs is unclear. National security as ensured by nuclear
weapons is illusory, because the only function inherent in such a system
is instilling fear.
Once Albert Einstein was
asked, "Will there be a World War III?" He answered, "I
can not tell you with complete certainty whether there will be a third
world war, but there will be no fourth world war – that I can tell you
for sure." Let us follow the precepts of the wise men: "The
mission of science is to make the impossible possible, to make the
possible a reality, and to make the reality reasonable."
Conclusions
Nuclear weapons can and
must be eliminated in the foreseeable future. They are immoral in
essence because they are primarily directed against the civilian
population and carry an inherent threat to life on Earth.
The overall current
situation in Russia is such that it is not conducive to
peace-promoting tendencies. Most likely, it is the opposite: a new
arms build-up cycle can emerge, which will encompass, among other
things, nuclear weapons.
Only international
forces, and first and foremost, the United Nations, are capable of
combating militarism. As for the United States, having emerged as a
world leader, it must play a primary role in the peace process, in the
process of disarmament.
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