ACRONYM NPT Update No. 16

A service during the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference of the ACRONYM Consortium and Disarmament Times

The Endgame: 
Proposals, Principles, and Brackets

8 May, 1995

The NPT Conference enters its fourth week with 3 distinct proposals on extending the Treaty: indefinite; indefinite with recommendations; and 25 year rolling fixed periods. Intensive negotiations are continuing among about 20 key states on a 'Declaration of principles on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament', originally put forward by South Africa. Getting agreement on mechanisms (practically finalised) and principles to make the Treaty's implementation more effective and accountable is now widely regarded as the most important task facing the negotiators. Without such accord, indefinite extension by consensus is extremely unlikely; agreement by Wednesday - providing the principles are still strong enough to be relevant - would greatly assist, but not guarantee, consensus. Iran has taken a high profile in the past few days, insisting on inclusion of strongly-worded paragraphs on violation of Articles I and II and IV by nuclear-weapon states supplying non-Party states while restricting access for NPT Parties, and so on. Iran's obstruction has been widely interpreted as a response to the trade embargo announced by US President Clinton last week, which had taken negotiators here by surprise. Although impeding progress at this point, Iran is expected to compromise during the final stages, so as to avoid being isolated or blamed at the end. Meanwhile the Drafting Committee, chaired by Ambassador Tadeusz Strulak of Poland, has begun work on bracketed text provided by the three Main Committees on disarmament, safeguards and non-military uses of nuclear energy.

Three Proposals on Extension

By Sunday 105 states had signed on for indefinite extension of the NPT. In addition to those listed by Canada during Friday's plenary, the Philippines' representative made a dramatic announcement adding its support for indefinite extension while calling for negotiations to begin on a Convention banning nuclear weapons. It was reported that Venezuela abandoned its proposal for a 25 year 'roll-over' extension and signed on to indefinite over the weekend. On behalf of 103 co-sponsors, including France, Russia, UK, US, members of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), most Central, South American and Caribbean States, and several African, Asian and Pacific countries, Canadian Ambassador Christopher Westdal introduced the resolution that 'The Conference of States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, held in accordance with Article X.2 of the Treaty, decides that the Treaty shall continue in force indefinitely'. Saying that additional states had also indicated support, Westdal saw this as an opportunity to reach consensus, to 'hasten the achievement of universal accession and deepen commitment to accountability and implementation...[and to] dedicate ourselves to a world free of nuclear arms.' Westdal deliberately did not use the phrase 'indefinite and unconditional', as the consent of many states to indefinite extension rests to some degree on the hope of agreement to strengthen implementation and measures towards the elimination of nuclear weapons. It was noticeable that none of the Middle Eastern States had signed onto the Canadian resolution.

Indonesia spoke on behalf of 'some members of the like-minded countries of the non-aligned (NAM)', proposing a 25 year rolling extension, as a 'golden mean' between indefinite and fixed period extension. Indonesia expressed the hope that the Conference would be 'guided by wisdom to find consensus so that everyone will be on board'. Mexico also submitted its resolution, which attached the decision to extend the NPT indefinitely to a number of measures for strengthening the implementation of the Treaty. While its recommendations are moderate, Mexico's proposal differs from South Africa's in explicitly linking them to the extension of the Treaty. Though many states fear that the South African formula may end up too weak, they want to avoid making the Treaty hostage to conditions, which some argue is implicit in the Mexican proposal.

South African Principles

As reported in NPT Update # 15, there is close agreement that the five yearly Review Conferences should be augmented by at least three intersessional Preparatory Committees able to consider substantive issues and make recommendations. Intensive discussions among more than 20 key states under the auspices of NPT Conference President, Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka, have been continuing throughout the weekend on the 23 principles and preamble. While some paragraphs from the original South African proposal have been diluted or generalised, it is understood that the nuclear weapon states' delegations have themselves been struggling with their governments to accept stronger language on some issues, realising that the principles would fail to be taken seriously if they did not represent a genuine bridge to the concerns of the non-nuclear-weapon states. Jacques Chirac's victory in the French Presidential elections by about five percent over his Socialist rival Lionel Jospin may clarify France's negotiating stance; the narrow margin of victory could encourage a more moderate approach on issues like testing.

The Main Committees

Main Committee I on disarmament: When Committee I's Chair, Ambassador Isaac Ayewah of Nigeria, provided a draft text on Friday, there was vociferous opposition from several delegations, including Iran, Indonesia, Sweden, UK, Switzerland and Russia, who complained that it did not accurately reflect the Committee's discussions. Despite working over the weekend, Committee I was only able to agree a 32-page 'rolling text' with brackets around key paragraphs referring to compliance with Articles I and II (the NATO states controversy reported in NPT Updates # 9 and 11), the nuclear programmes of threshold states, whether or not the nuclear arms race has ceased and how to refer to recent progress on nuclear arms reduction and further steps to be taken, how to characterise the comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT) negotiations and whether a CTBT should be concluded by 1995 or 1996, whether a fissile cut-off should include stockpiles, whether to include a programme of action, and if so, what it should contain, and what further steps need to be taken on general and complete disarmament. Ambassador Richard Starr of Australia will continue consultations on behalf of the Drafting Committee, with a view to getting agreement on the few outstanding issues on security assurances.

Main Committee II on safeguards:The primary issues still to be settled cover export controls, including Iran's proposal for an oversight body consisting of States Parties, and nuclear-weapon-free zones (NFZ), with bracketed references to Israel and to a Central European NFZ. Concerns are mentioned regarding the physical protection of nuclear material and also the increasing use of separated plutonium in 'civil' programmes. Keeping safeguards 'cost effective' was a central concern throughout.

Main Committee III on non-miliary uses:The last minute insertion by Iran of a paragraph criticising constraints and 'unilaterally enforced restrictive measures', which had originally been part of a NAM proposal on Article IV, prevented consensus but did not reopen debate on agreed text which included mention of 'contravention of Articles I, II and III', endorsement of sustainable development approaches, transboundary impact of nuclear accidents, the interest of all states in 'any transportation of irradiated nuclear fuel, plutonium and...nuclear waste', the need to prohibit the dumping of radioactive waste, liability, and non-discriminatory technical cooperation. Committee III's report includes unbracketed text on Article V, recording that the envisaged benefits of peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) had not materialised, and 'recommending' that the Conference on Disarmament 'takes this situation and future developments into account' while negotiating a CTBT, a compromise to which China agreed. The 12 non-Party states are named for the first time and called on to accede to the NPT.

Rebecca Johnson with thanks to roving reporter Richard Guthrie.

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