WEB NOTES

 The Impact the War has on Israel

Web Note by Stacy Orr and Fiona Simpson
May 23, 2003

May 23

The "road map" for peace in the Middle East has remained stalled following its announcement.  Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon cancelled his scheduled trip to Washington in response to a series of suicide bombing attacks which have recently occurred within Israel.  Meanwhile, newly-elected Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has met with Hamas in hopes of persuading that organisation to support the ambitious peace plan.  He has maintained, however, that this will be a difficult task in the absence of support for the process by Sharon.  The Bush administration is now hoping to arrange a meeting between Bush, Sharon and Abbas in hopes of implementing the road map.  Sharon has recently expressed a willingness to engage with this process if it is preceded by a period of calm.

April 10

In spite of what appears to be broad US control of Baghdad and the collapse of the Iraqi regime, Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz stated that the high state of alert in Israel would remain, at least for the next few days.  The announcement followed a meeting of defense officials, and it was claimed that there were plans to reassess this decision at the end of the week.  This followed on from the 6 April statement by IDF spokesman Maj.Gen. Amos Gilad, who asserted that the threat had not been eliminated and that when the threat was removed, "the level of preparedness in Israel will also be removed."

April 3

During a visit to Washington this week, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom announced that Israel would continue in its state of full alert for the next two weeks, although thus far Iraq had not launched any attacks against it.  Foreign Minister Shalom also expressed his government's belief that the "road map" for peace in the Middle East, proposed by President Bush, would need to be adapted before Israel would consider it acceptable.  Finally, it was estimated that the war had, as of this point, cost Israel $200 million including production losses and security preparations.

War Against Saddam Day 9

Tens of thousands of Palestinians rallied in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to show support for Saddam Hussein.  Effigies of Western Leaders were burned and protestors urged Saddam Hussein to attack Israel.

War Against Saddam Day 7

Until American forces have overtaken and secured the Iraqi territories that could launch an attack against Israel, the Israeli government and officials will no lower the level of alert in the country.

March 21

Palestinians demonstrated throughout the West Bank and Gaza to protest the US-led attack on Iraq.  Features of the demonstration included Iraqi flags, posters supporting Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, and posters in opposition to the US and Israel.

War Against Saddam Day 2

 Day 2 of the offensive against Saddam, and it is business as usual in Israel.  Citizens are hopeful of a swift American victory followed by a protracted effort to rebuild Iraq and democratise the Middle East.  Of course, there are many who are skeptical of this and wonder if it is all just American lip service.

 Despite the quiet front in Israel, officials and citizens alike are sill preparing for the possibility that Saddam Hussein will attack.  Even with a low probability of an attack, “I have to assume [Saddam] will attack,” says David Aharony, director of the Municipal Emergency and Security Department.

March 19

Israeli military intelligence believes that the American-led offensive against Iraq will be launched shortly after President Bush’s ultimatum expires and war will break out Thursday.  Although officials say that the risk of Israel being attacked is low, Israeli citizens are still preparing for the worst.

US, British, Japanese, and Australian governments have ordered all nonessential travel and occupation of the Middle East to be stopped and they are calling back all nationals in the area.  In addition British Airways has suspended all flights entering Israel as of tonight.

March 7

Although the American government would prefer it if Israel did not retaliate against any Iraqi attacks or threats, officials have said that they would understand if Israeli forces felt the need to strike against a devastating Iraqi attack, as they recognize the Israeli right to defend themselves.

Gaza Operations

IDF forces have strategic positions set-up in the Gaza Strip to stop any incoming Iraqi or enemy missiles.  Officials are not saying how long the operatives will remain in the area, but until now Israeli military policy in the Strip has not allowed an operation to last more than a few hours.

Now is the Time to Prepare

IDF Chief Spokeswoman Brigadier-General Ruth Yaron, has issued a warning to Israeli citizens by saying that the US-Iraq war is growing closer and closer, and that if people do not already have a sealed room with supplies, now is the time to get prepared.  It is still Israel’s position that the threat of an Iraqi Scud attack is low, but citizens should be prepared regardless.

Establishment of the C41 Directorate in the IDF

A new directorate has been established within the IDF, this is the establishment of C41.  The additional directorate will be in charge of spheres of communication, computers, and information technology.  This will lead the IDF into the frontier of technological and modern warfare, at a time when it is needed.

US Aid

Recently the Israeli government asked the US for $4 billion in aid due to the upcoming war.  Discussions regarding the aid were held this week in Washington, with director-general of the Defence Ministry, Amos Yaron.  It was decided that Israel would not get the full amount requested however Israel was promised an $8 billion loan guarantee.

Bush’s Speech to the American Enterprise Institute

On Wednesday February 26, President Bush delivered a speech regarding Iraq to the right-wing Washington think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).  Bush was later criticised that he offered no new evidence or information, as he reiterated that after the Iraq war he would resolve Israeli-Palestinian violence.  He said that he hopes that success in Iraq could also begin a new stage for Middle Eastern peace, and that after Iraq the administration will use every available opportunity to end Israeli-Palestinian violence.  Prime Minister Ariel Sharon supports Bush’s plan for a Middle East vision, including that of creating a Palestinian state, but he wants more details of the US governments Road Map for Middle East peace and he wants further discussion on the subject.  The general population of Israel is skeptical that there will be a lasting peace without further delegation, as there is no guarantee that American words will become deeds.

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

The Foreign Office has advised all British nationals to delay any non-essential travel plans to Israel and the occupied territories due to the increased tensions in the area.  They are also asking anybody who is currently there to evacuate the areas, unless their presence is mandatory and essential.

Gaza Raid February 19

Israel has increased its security toward Hamas by sending dozens of tanks and helicopters into Gaza.  During the six hours of fighting at least eleven, allegedly armed Palestinian men were killed.  The Israeli army claimed that this attack was in retaliation to the death of four Israeli soldiers that were in a tank that drove over an explosive in Gaza on Saturday.

Further Preparations

Israel has yet again increased its preparedness for war as Israeli authorities have begun supplying gas masks to foreign workers.  The preparations have since extended to schools, where children have been jumping out of windows in a national air-raid drill.  Students are also being educated in the use of gas masks and the locations of bomb shelters, and dozens of students are trained to work on the rapid response team.

Warning From Washington

A strategy discussion held between Israel and the US in October 2002, agreed that Israel would receive a warning from Washington before any American attack on Iraq.  This is a similar initiative that the two countries had in the 1991 Gulf War.  Originally, the Israeli government was hoping for a 24-hour warning, but all that has been promised is six.  The warning will come from Washington directly on a secure telephone communication.

Iran

Israel warned the US government not to allow Iran to be the major beneficiary of this war.  Israeli defense sources expressed concern that Iran would benefit from the coming visit of the director of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), Mohammed ElBaradei. Last week, Iran announced that it was preparing uranium extracted from local mines for use as fuel. The Iranians insist the uranium will be used in civilian reactors, but the technology would allow them to develop independent access to enriched uranium for future use in nuclear weapons.
Iranian authorities invited ElBaradei to inspect the uranium enrichment and heavy water installations after the Iranian opposition revealed their construction.
Israel is concerned the visit by the head of the IAEA will provide legitimacy for the Iranian program and make it more difficult to block in the future, which worries the government and many Israeli citizens.

Israel February 13

Representatives of the Iraqi government sent messages to top Israeli officials regarding the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.  Although talks began between the two in the summer of 1987, contact broke as Israeli skepticism over Iraq’s sincerity and American objections grew.

As Israel prepares for a war they see as imminent, the Israeli government has called up air defence reservists to train and prepare for a possible missile attack from Iraq.  Amos Yaron, director general of the defence ministry, has administered instructions, via radio broadcasts, on how the public can seal rooms against chemical or biological agents and calls on people to stockpile food, water, batteries, and first-aid kits. “The chance that something happens here is low but we have to prepare for all possibilities,” Yaron said.

Israeli War Threat

In 1991, Israel played a crucial role in the Gulf War as Iraq fired dozens of Scud missiles at Israel.  Defence has been stepped up and many precautions taken, however Israeli defence ministers are more worried about an attack on the Israeli-Lebanese border.  This territory is a strong hold for the terrorist organisation Hizbullah.  They could use an Iraq war to launch a rocket barrage on Israel, forcing the army to relocate from the West Bank.  Once the army relocates, the region is open to Palestinian terrorists.  At this point Israel would be fighting on three fronts, against Hizbullah, Iraq, and the Palestinians. 

Israel Expects Iraq War by End of the Month

Israeli intelligence agrees that yesterday’s speech closely matches their assessment of Iraq.  The Israeli defence establishment believes that Colin Powell’s speech was a precursor to a war that will happen by the end of February.  As the end of the month approaches, Israel will step up air defences and decisions about emergency procedures will be taken.  Experts do not expect that Israel will play as large a role in this war as they did in 1991, and say that they will take precautions, but do not think they are necessary.  IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’Alon expects a war in Iraq in the coming weeks.  He also stipulates a short war only lasting a few more weeks.  When questioned about Israeli retaliation to an Iraqi attack, Ya’Alon refused to admit or deny anything.

A New Iraqi Regime

It is the belief of most Israeli’s that any new regime in Iraq must be democratically elected, pro-Western, and it must sign a peace treaty with Israel.  Signing a treaty will set an example for other Arab states to follow, and eventually a lasting peace in the Middle East.  It would be in the Bush Administration’s best interest to do this, as it will help resolve Middle East fighting, thereby relieving a lot of US military and financial involvement in the area.

Juniper Cobra

Israeli Election

Israeli Attack on Gaza January 26

Approximately fifty tanks, amoured vehicles, and helicopters killed twelve people and injured dozens more as they flattened more than 100 buildings, and has since prevented occupants of Palestinian areas from movement. Palestinians have accused Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s launch of the attack on the Zaitoun District of a Gaza City as nothing more than a re-election tactic for his militaristic campaign.  Israel claims that the attack was a response to the firing of crude short-range Qassam rockets at the Israeli town of Sderot on Friday the 24^th.  Palestinian areas of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have been sealed for three days as a safety measure against Palestinian militants who wish to sabotage Tuesday’s election. Palestinians are certain that this is a mere taste of the further disaster that will follow Sharon’s re-election, and any US-Iraq war, given the coalition between Sharon and Bush.

Consequences of war

A war in Iraq could result in a terrible loss in the Israeli economy, civilian lives, and Middle-Eastern political stability.  Business Data Israel (BDI) estimates that the Israeli economy could lose $1 billion if and when war breaks out in Iraq.  This figure assumes a 1% loss of GDP, similar to the loss in 1991, which cost Israel $650 million.  It is also assumed that tourism will plummet, export orders will be cancelled, higher shipping insurance rates, raised import and export costs, and added protection costs.

If Americans launch an attack against Iraq, Israeli and US intelligence officials believe Iraq will send suicide planes to Israel with biological or chemical weapons.  In preparation Israel has increased military spending and tightened its air defences.  US and Israel have set up joint teams to coordinate operational plans for preempting or responding to Iraqi attacks on Israel.  In return, Israel is not to retaliate unilterally against any terror attacks.