As bombs fall on Iraq, the threat of a chemical, biological or nuclear attack remains a real threat to US and coalition forces. But, with the hope that there is no attack using weapons of mass destruction, the majority of US casualties in this war will be from small arms and light weapons.  Moreover, the real threat to the rebuilding of Iraq may be these weapons as well.

According to media reports, Iraq is one of the most heavily armed countries in the world. It is believed that there are enough guns in Iraq for every person in Iraq to possess at least one, a level similar to gun ownership in clans in Yemen and Somalia, as well as in the United States.  With a population of approximately 24 million, there are probably millions of small arms in the hands of civilians. The gun culture is pervasive in Iraq.  There is even an Iraqi saying, “Give everything to your friend, except your car, your wife, and your gun.”

Small arms and light weapons are widely available in Iraq, both on the legal and black markets.  These weapons are not necessarily new, but they are still deadly. Weapons left over from the end of Ottoman Empire in 1918 and World War II have been available in arms bazaars throughout Iraq.  More modern weapons are also available, especially in the illicit arms markets, with weapons for sale from the United States, Turkey and Iran. Beyond simply guns, Iraqis civilians also have had access to other light weapons, such as rocket-propelled grenades, mortars and bombs through the black market, arms bazaars and from government sources.

The majority of military-style weapons in the hands of civilians in Iraq come from three sources, according to media reports. First, civilians possess weapons from government arsenals that were looted in 1991. Second, weapons have been provided to the main Shi’ite rebel group by Iran. Third, the Iraqi government has provided AK-47s to leaders of Sunni and Shi’ite tribal leaders for dispersal.

Moreover, it is widely believed that Saddam’s government has trained civilians, including units of children, in small arms usage and combat techniques and tactics. These trainees were given firearms, including military assault rifles to keep in their home in the event of an attack. Indeed, in February 2003, thousands of small arms-bearing civilians paraded down the streets of Mosul to demonstrate the capacity of ordinary Iraqis to wage war. This is not a new tactic.  During the Iran-Iraq war, the Iraqi government provided AK-47s to decommissioned soldiers, Ba’ath party members and tribal leaders.

In the months preceding the outbreak of war, small arms in Iraq fluctuated in price. A shotgun was selling for $100, Iraqi-made “Tariq” 7.65 mm pistols for $200; AK-47 assault rifles were selling for between $120 and $250, Israeli Uzis and German MP5 submachine guns for $400, a 9mm Beretta for $850.  Each bullet was selling for around 25 cents.  Despite the obvious demand for guns, there was an oversupply within the market. When the Iraqi government gave away weapons, citizens frequently sold them to buy food. Indeed, some arms merchants were buying the weapons in Iraq and then smuggling them into the Kurdish areas to make a small profit.  In the Kurdish areas, prices for AK-47s were as low as $70 and hand grenades were selling between $3 and $10.  Higher prices were paid for weapons made in the West against those from Russia, China, Iran or Egypt. However, in the days immediately before the US land invasion, the small arms trade exploded, as civilians became fearful of their safety, not only from invading US forces, but from Kurdish groups and their well-armed neighbours. In fact, prices for AK-47s shot up to around $500 in some areas.

In addition to civilians, US and coalition forces will also have to deal with armed opposition groups.  The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are also well armed. The KDP, for example, is believed to have small arms, Iranian light artillery, rocket launchers and some surface-to-air missiles.  The PUK is believed to have T-54 and T-55 tanks, as well as mortars, anti-aircraft guns and surface-to-air missiles. However, unlike government forces further south, these groups have tried to remove the large number of small arms from circulation. For example, in 1997 the KDP opened an arms market and determined that only KDP soldiers or those with KDP-issued permits could purchase weapons from the market. They recorded the buyers’ names and the serial numbers of each purchase.

While Saddam had hoped that the Iraqi people would use their small arms to fight off advancing US troops, it is highly unlikely large numbers will do so. There is no doubt, however, that these millions of military style weapons in the hands of civilians will have a real impact on the aftermath of war.  In the lawlessness that is likely to result from the fall of the Iraqi government, small arms could be used to gain power, commit crime, cause insecurity and be used for internal fighting.