January 30, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

In the week in which the UN Inspectors give their reports to the United Nations and President Bush delivered his State of the Union address (where last year he declared the North Korean, Iranian and Iraqi regimes an axis of evil), we played our own small part in increasing public awareness on the Iraq crisis by launching the website www.iraqconflict.org and by publishing Air Marshal Sir Timothy Garden's paper, 'Iraq, the crisis deepens'.

Further concerns over military intervention have come from key players in the last Gulf War.  In a speech this week, the former UK Foreign Secretary, Lord Hurd highlighted the consequences of military action and the effects these might have on the future stability of the Middle East.

In a surprising development, the general who commanded US forces in the 1991 Gulf War, and a close friend of the Bush family, General Norman Schwarzkopf, also expressed scepticism about US action in Iraq.  In an interview in the Washington Post he concluded that inspections are still the proper course to follow.

Public opinion remains remains unmoved and several prominent voices within Congress have started to question the rush to war. President Bush is challenging the dissenting voices, tasking Secretary of State Colin Powell to brief the UN Security Council on February 5 on evidence that Iraq possesses, and is still engaged in producing, WMD.  This signals the next phase in an intensive campaign to win over domestic and international opinion.

“Once again, this nation and our friends are all that stand between a world at peace, and a world of chaos and constant alarm. Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind. And we accept this responsibility.” President Bush in the State of the Union Address

“I don’t know what intelligence the US government has. And before I can just stand up and say ‘beyond a shadow of a doubt, we need to invade Iraq’, I guess I would like to have better information.” General Norman Schwarzkopf, leader of Allied forces in the Gulf War of 1991.

"If Saddam Hussein and his generals decide for one second to use weapons of mass destruction against allied forces of the United States of America and our allies, we will make sure it doesn't happen." Dan Bartlett, White House communications director on CNN in response to questions about the threat to use nuclear weapons against Iraq.

"Iraq has decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, notably access. A similar decision is indispensable to provide cooperation on substance in order to bring the disarmament task to completion... Inspection is not a game of 'catch as catch can'." Hans Blix, statement to the UN Security Council.

"In the days ahead, we believe the Council and its member governments, must face its responsibilities and consider what message Council irresolution sends to Iraq and other proliferators." Ambassador John D. Negroponte, US Rep to the UN

“They should be given the time to do their work and all of us must realise that time will be necessary” Kofi Annan speaking on Monday 27^th January after the inspectors' report.

UN ACTIVITIES

Inspections

This week's news has been dominated by the UNMOVIC and IAEA inspectors' report to the UN Security Council (webcast of UNSC meeting) and President Bush's State of the Union speech, widely touted as his opportunity to announce his response. In the event, the State of the Union focused more on the War on Terror, and sought to place the present action over Iraq within this wider context.

Hans Blix noted that Iraq has on the whole cooperated in as far as access to sites and cooperative arrangements for the inspectors. There are significant concerns over the refusal to allow U2 surveillance, and there there have been Iraqi accusations of possible national intelligence gathering by UNMOVIC. While no 'smoking gun' had been found, there remain a number of discrepancies over chemical (notably VX) and biological (notably anthrax) weapons that Iraq has yet to account for, as well as evidence that Iraq is pushing beyond the agreed 150km range of its recently developed missiles. Mr Blix also referred to the inadequate list of names of scientists involved and a lack of private interviews with them, as well as a worrying lack of documents available. He ended on an upbeat note of the great capacity of UNMOVIC in recent weeks to step up smart inspections.

IAEA Director General ElBaradei also urged the Iraqis to cooperate more fully in interviews on Tuesday. He implied that it was up to Iraq to prove itself innocent, rather than inspectors to prove guilt. He urged the Security Council to maintain the pressure, but said that he would need several more months to complete his task. However, he also implied there were fewer open questions in the nuclear area, where it was more possible to detect Iraqi non-compliance. IAEA inspectors have also been able to verify that many of the 'concerns' published by the US and UK governments have been unproven. "We were able to visit all these sites and satisfy ourselves that they are not used for nuclear activities". He also said, "I know that the international community is getting impatient, but I think it is worth trying one more time... if we can disarm Iraq through peaceful means, that is obviously in the interest of everybody."

The findings were quickly seized upon by the US and UK as evidence that Iraq was ‘in material breach’ of resolution 1441. US Ambassador Negroponte's swift response to the inspectors' reports on Monday was uncompromising, and demanded Security Council members act resolutely, and respond to Iraq's obstruction. 

It has been announced that the 122mm warheads found earlier this month by UNSCOM inspectors did not contain chemical agents. There remain a number of warheads unaccounted for. 

A new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace came out late last week in the run up to Monday. "Iraq, What Next?" details concerns over Iraq’s weapons capabilities and assesses the status of inspections. The threat of military action has forced the hand of Saddam Hussein and largely opened up Iraq to inspection. There is certainly room for improvements, and doubt remains over the details of Iraq's possession of WMD; meanwhile the inspections at the very least have placed a cap on any mass production of chemical or biological weapons. The alternatives, including war, are far more costly in human, political and economic terms.

Regional and Strategic Impacts

Arab states hostile reaction to Bush address

President Bush’s State of the Union address was not well received in the Arab world. Hesham Youssef, spokesman for the Arab League said “the international community is not convinced, so they (the US) need to make a better case if they want support.” The Iranian foreign minister, Kamal Kharrazi, who is due to meet his British counterpart Jack Straw on 5 February, accused the US of “wanting to create an atmosphere of tension, both domestically and abroad, especially in the Middle East”. (IHT 30/01/03).

After meeting the French Prime Minister, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal stressed the need to dismantle Iraq’s weapons rather than change its regime. Prince al-Faisal also stressed how important the Palestine issue is at the present time “the Iraqi crisis should not be an obstacle before the efforts on the Palestinian arena”.

After Turkey voiced concerns over the financial implication of an Iraqi war on their domestic economy, there have been reports that Turkey has allowed the US to deploy 20,000 troops on its Iraqi border in exchange for an aid package designed to offset projected $2.5 billion loss to the Turkish economy if war in Iraq goes ahead. (The Daily Telegraph 28/01/03).

US buys Iraqi oil

Iraq focus after Israeli elections

Despite the Palestine situation dominating Tuesday’s Israeli elections the issue of Iraq has been cited as a key factor in the formation of Sharon’s new coalition government. “The Iraq factor has helped Sharon offset the corruption factor," said Yossi Alpher of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, prior to Sharon’s election victory this week. Observers have noted that that Sharon’s emphasis on his close ties to Washington and his determination to topple Saddam Hussein, who he accused helped fund Palestinian militants, was a significant factor for his success. 

Short war best for economy

From a business perspective, a short war in Iraq is better than no war or no regime change, as it would remove uncertainty, a study entitled War and the World Economy put out by the Institute of Directors (IoD) said.  A short and successful war would boost the US economy by approximately 5%, which in turn would boost international economies.  Critics of the report say that the IoD is showing an obscene distorted sense of priorities that only occupies the minds of business leaders and boardrooms.

Humanitarian disaster for Iraq

Ten experts from the International Study Team (IST), an independent group of academics, researchers, physicians, and child psychologists founded in 1991 to examine the effect of military conflict on civilians, forecasted death, disease, starvation, and possibly hundreds of thousands of casualties, should war break out in Iraq.  Humanitarian costs after a war, even a quick war, will be astronomical and long-lasting aid and a humanitarian presence will be required.

A recent UN report on the humanitarian consequences of a war in Iraq, estimates that a conflict will result in over two million refugees.  Currently, 60% of Iraqis depend on government rations and aid, and if Iraq is involved in a conflict, funds for aid will plummet and those individuals may starve.  Approximately 500,000 people will require medical treatment in the beginning of a war and nearly two million children and one million pregnant or nursing women will require immediate medical attention.  Major UN and charity relief agencies fear that they will not be able to handle this humanitarian crisis.  Last December, the UN agencies asked donors for an initial additional sum of $37.4 million to stabilize and fund the needed aid packages.

Environmental impacts

Friends of the Earth believe that it is necessary to consider the possible effects of war on the environment.  In 1991, the destruction of sewage treatment plants in Kuwait resulted in the discharge of over 50,000 cubic meters of raw sewage.  Primary concerns for this war include chemical poisoning effects, the spread of depleted uranium, and the serious threat to the region’s biodiversity.

UK and European Debates

UK backs US claims of al Qaeda link with Iraq

Prime Minister Tony Blair, during Prime Ministers Questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday, explicitly linked al Qaeda and the Iraqi regime, mirroring the comments of President Bush in his State of the Union speech and sending a strong signal of support ahead of their meeting in Camp David.  In response, Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz said, "I absolutely deny that, and I challenge Bush and his Government to present any evidence of that." 

UK cast doubt on inspector report

Foreign Secretary Jack Straw highlighted the negatives of Hans Blix’s report insisting “there is clear evidence now that [Sadaam Hussein] has made a charade of an inspection’ (The Guardian 28.01.03).  Labour backbenchers remain unconvinced and insist the weapons inspectors to have time to do their job effectively. Eight Conservatives said publicly they are opposed to military action without UN backing and the Liberal Democrats remain opposed to military action unless there is a second resolution.  In an effort to assist the British people ‘judge for themselves’ the seriousness of Blix’s report the Government published a list of 10 key questions rasied by the document.

Iraqi opposition groups discuss the future of Iraq in London

There was some optimism at the conference at the Royal United Services Institute on Monday that Iraq can change into a pluralist, federal state. However there were mixed feelings on whether or not military action would help or hinder this. Many Kurds fear that military action will result in the loss of their protection secured by the no fly zones, but were keen to develop democracy in Iraq. Fears were expressed that the removal of Sadaam by external military means would merely usher in another dictator. The challenge of creating a post-Sadaam state is to be discussed again by the Iraqi opposition in Kurdistan on February 15 as a follow up to the London Conference in December.

Efforts to gain widespread EU support

US Debates

Growing Opposition

After a period of relative quiescence, congressional leaders are expressing concerns about a war and the risks of American unilateralism. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, with a distinguished Vietnam War record, said:  “Iraq is not the most imminent threat to America today. There is also North Korea, the Israeli-Palestine issue, major problems in South America. These are all combustible, dangerous threats to international stability and peace. We have to deal with these. We can’t do it alone. We need the resources and support of our allies”.

Arguably the most forward-looking opinion piece this week, however, was penned for the Washington Post by Indiana Republican Senator, Richard Lugar, the new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He outlined US foreign policy reforms dealing with root causes of conflicts through a stronger commitment to democracy, the environment, energy and development.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle asked on Monday, “if we have proof of nuclear and biological weapons, why don’t we show that proof to the world, as President Kennedy did 40 years ago when he sent Adlai Stevenson to the United Nations to show the world US photographs of offensive missiles in Cuba?”. 

Congressional letters

In all 130 Members of Congress signed the Brown-Kind Congressional letter sent on January 24 to President Bush (referred to in last week's email). In addition, Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., (Ranking Member on the House Armed Services Committee) and Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., sent a letter to the President on Monday. The letter notes, “As Prime Minister Tony Blair has said, the inspections need not take many months, but investing more time in them should aid our diplomatic efforts as well as our military plans.” The letter then lists advantages to allowing the inspections to continue. Rep. Ed Markey, D- Mass., also issued a statement urging that the inspectors be given more time.

Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee, D- Texas, submitted a resolution with four co-sponsors expressing the sense of Congress that the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of October 2002 should be repealed. The resolution would serve to return the decision of going to war back to the United States Congress.

Nuclear Weapons use

The issue of nuclear weapons use against Iraq was raised by a commentary by William Arkin in Saturday’s Los Angeles Times entitled "The Nuclear Option in Iraq – The U.S. has lowered the bar for using the ultimate weapon." This was further discussed by administration officials on the Sunday morning talk shows with further reporting in Monday’s Washington Times. Senator Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. had an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times titled "Our Nuclear Talk Gravely Impairs Us" and Rep. Kucinch, D, Ohio, also responded calling upon the administration to “renounce use of ‘first strike’ nuclear weapons in Iraq.”

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