March 28, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

President Bush repeatedly asserts that the outcome of the Iraq conflict is not in doubt. In terms of achieving regime change in Baghdad he is almost certainly right. But whether or not the conflict is ultimately judged to have been worth the cost remains a much more open question.

This war is different. The coalition curses the Iraqi regime’s preparedness effectively to hold its own people hostage by exploiting the coalition forces’ declared aversion to inflict civilian casualties. If only the people would turn on their masters the war would be won quickly, it is claimed.

Yet, it is not that simple, because to varying degrees, however much they may hate the regime, many Iraqis apparently still feel greater loyalty to their country or to being an Arab than to the foreign invaders. Others, petrified of the consequences of showing dissent, and having been let down by the Americans before, understandably simply wait to see what happens.

The defining moment of this conflict may well arrive if and when the long-suffering Iraqi people can be persuaded not only that Saddam’s demise is imminent but also that their future will be placed firmly in their own hands once the fighting stops. If they are not convinced of this, the war may well become bloodier and more protracted and criticism of its prosecution will grow louder. 

To ensure that adequate consideration is given to the challenge of re-building Iraq after Saddam, we have modified the bulletin to include a new section on post-conflict reconstruction. This, and future bulletins, will also include a section on the international legal dimensions.

Dr Stephen Pullinger, Director, ISIS

“This war is an act of self-defense, to be sure, but it is also an act of humanity.” Donald Rumsfeld, March 25.

“We would be wise to consult Arab opinion… We should discuss our plans with the EU, China and Russia, and seek their active political support: We may, after all need them to open their wallets as well.. In victory, magnanimity may heal wounds.” Former British Prime Minister John Major on the rebuilding of Iraq after the war.

“Arab diplomacy has become the most ineffective in the world. US troops invading Iraq are setting off from their bases, the war planes are flying through their skies, yet they are incapable of doing anything about it.” Abd al-Bari Atwn in the London based Arab newspaper, Al-Quds al-Arabi.

“Baghdad might give us the time-line for this whole war - and whether we'll wind up looking in vain for 'the light at the end of the tunnel’.” Tim Lomperis, political analyst and former Army intelligence officer, referring to the phrase frequently invoked by US officials during the Vietnam War.

“History only teaches us that it teaches us nothing.” Belarus Delegate Aleg Ivanou, speaking against the war at the UNSC open debate on Iraq (26/03)

"Umm Qasr is a city similar to Southampton," UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon. "He's either never been to Southampton, or he's never been to Umm Qasr," British squaddie patrolling Umm Qasr. Another soldier added: "There's no beer, no prostitutes and people are shooting at us. It's more like Portsmouth". (Sky News)

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Humanitarian effort

The first British shipment of 260 tonnes of food and stores aid was delayed in docking at Umm Qasr by storms and the threat of mines (but docked successfully on March 28). Land deliveries via Kuwait have been hijacked at the border; Dr Hilal Al-Sayer, Chairman of the Kuwaiti Red Crescent, called the operation a “disaster” on March 27.  Officials have predicted that the humanitarian operation will be the largest in history and the UN has launched a $1 billion dollar appeal to cover the cost of feeding Iraq for six months after the war ends. The Oil-for-Food Programme, that supports 60% of Iraq’s population, was suspended on March 17 and the UN Food programme has estimated that Iraq has only five weeks of food supplies left.  A draft UN resolution was tabled on March 27 that would allow the programme to be resumed, with a vote expected to take place on March 28.

There are fears that Basra, where thousands are being forced from the city due to lack of water, could collapse in days unless sanitation efforts improve, causing a massive humanitarian disaster. Unlike Baghdad, where wells have been dug, Basra’s ground water, from which wells would draw their supplies, is just too saline for human consumption.

Aid pledges

The UK Department for International Development (DFID) has committed £90 million to humanitarian support for Iraq. On March 21 the College of European Commissioners proposed to the European Council the release of an additional 79 million euros from their Emergency Aid Reserve, increasing their total commitment to 100 million euros. On March 27, the Government of Japan announced $112.5 million for humanitarian aid, and the US Congress has agreed $2,400 million.

UK aid agencies have declined financial support from the Government for relief work in Iraq. Oxfam, Save the Children, Christian Aid, Action Aid and Cafod have said that aid would be ‘inappropriate while fighting continues’.

UN mandate for reconstruction

Despite receiving an assurance from President Bush to guarantee a UN mandate for reconstruction of Iraq at the Azores meeting, difficulties are arising in reaching agreement at the Security Council. Speaking in Parliament, International Development Secretary Clare Short said that a Security Council agreement would be reached and was legally essential. France has been pushing for a new resolution as a first step for the renewed involvement of the Security Council.  Speaking after his visit to Washington, Prime Minister Tony Blair was confident that the UN would administer the UN Oil for Food Programme and be involved in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. A Security Council resolution guaranteeing this is to be voted upon Friday March 28 and Blair said that the vote would be a sign of  “the UN door opening again”, leading to a larger UN involvement in Iraq. Blair rejected claims that the US wanted to administer Iraq after the war and said Bush had made it “his priority to make sure the government of Iraq after Saddam is as broadly represented as possible”.

The matter of the UN mandate has been further complicated by the arrival of Jay Garner, a retired US General, in Kuwait to oversee recruitment of staff for an office to administer a post-war Iraq.

US/UK splits over re-building project

US seizes Iraqi government assets

International Legal Dimension

Possible use of Chemical Weapons and other WMD

As ‘Coalition’ Troops approach Baghdad, speculation mounts that both sides may use chemical weapons in the final battle for the capital (BBC Radio 4 Today, March 27).  In an open letter to President Bush and Prime Minister Blair on March 21, transatlantic arms control experts urged the leaders "not use chemical incapacitating agents or chemical riot control agents in the war with Iraq." The groups claimed that such gases can be very lethal, more so for civilians than troops trained in response strategies, and would break the taboo against chemical weapons use as well as be illegal under the Chemical Weapons Convention, opening the door to full-scale chemical warfare. In a statement on March 27 Goeoff Hoon stated that UK troops would abide by the Chemical Weapons Convention, but declined to clarify the status of US troops.

Hans Blix stated that there was no evidence to suggest Iraq had used any proscribed weapons, nor indeed was there any further evidence of their possession since the US-UK invasion of the country. Claims that a chemical weapons plant had been discovered turned out to be false.

Geneva Convention takes centre stage… POWs

After US Prisoners of War were shown on Iraqi TV on March 25, Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld accused the Iraqis of breaking the Geneva Convention. Focus was on Article 13 (prisoners of war must be protected against insults and public curiosity). Later in the week, Geoff Hoon condemned the TV pictures released by Iraqi government and shown on al Jazeera on March 26. He stated in a press conference on March 27, “whilst the coalition acts in accordance with the Geneva Convention, the Iraqi regime parades coalition prisoners of war on Iraqi state television, in direct violation of Iraq's obligations under the Convention”. Many media commentators pointed to a claimed hypocrisy, that not only were Iraqi POWs shown earlier on US and UK TV networks, but that the US is breaking 15 articles of the Geneva Convention in its treatment of the 641 prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay.

… Iraqi tactics

Continued claims throughout the week were made by the US that Iraqi soldiers are using civilians as human shields, pretending to surrender before they attack, and disguising themselves as civilians. These actions break the Convention and threatened the safety of both coalition forces and civilians on the ground.

… television stations

The targeting of television stations in Baghdad and Basra on March 25 has been condemned by a number of international groups. Claudio Cordone, Amnesty's director for international law was quoted saying, "The bombing of a television station, simply because it is being used for the purposes of propaganda, cannot be condoned. It is a civilian object, and thus protected under international humanitarian law." Aidan White, General Secretary of the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) said, "We have every reason to believe this is an act of censorship… There is no question that this attack reflects the anger and frustration of political leaders in the United States over the showing of prisoners on television and the use of television to boost the morale of Saddam Hussein supporters… I think there should be a clear international investigation into whether or not this bombing violates the Geneva Conventions.” Others claimed that this was a broader strategy to undermine the morale of the population and hasten the fall of the cities. UK Defence Minister, Geoff Hoon claimed on the BBC that Iraqi TV was “part of the military command and control structure” and was dealt with accordingly. 

… indiscriminate munitions

Regional and Strategic Impacts

Global tensions rising

While international attention is focused on Iraq, reports have highlighted other deepening crises across other parts of the globe. India and Pakistan both conducted tests of nuclear capable missiles on March 26, in response to renewed tensions after 24 Hindus were shot in the disputed state of Kashmir. North Korean leaders pulled out of border liaison talks with US officials and continued work on restarting the country's plutonium reprocessing plant.  In addition their parliament agreed an increase in defence spending. The North Koreans expressed their anger at the Japanese launch of two spy satellites aimed at North Korea, claiming that this represented another step on a regional arms race. Israeli forces have killed 85 Palestinians this month, making it the highest toll since Israeli troops moved back into the West Bank a year ago. The US is facing difficulties with its counter drug and terrorism operation in Colombia, one of the more forgotten regions of its war on terror.  In the last month three US Government employees have been captured by rebels and are being held as prisoners of war and three more have died attempting to search for them.  

Arab foreign meeting calls for end of war 

Foreign Ministers from Arab states met in Cairo on March 24 to discuss a response to the war in Iraq. The ministers released a declaration accusing the US-British invasion of violating international law and calling for the UN Security council to condemn the attack and affirm Iraq’s political independence. Whilst declaring its support for Baghdad the final resolution did not include a call for Arab states to refuse to help the coalition forces, which had appeared in earlier drafts. 

al-Jazeera finds new support amid fury from the coalition

Confusion over status of 'road map'

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair used his meeting with President Bush on March 27 to reiterate his support for the ‘road map’ peace plan aimed at ending the Palestine – Israeli conflict. Blair said the plan, viewed by many as Blair’s concession for supporting Bush over Iraq, would be published as soon as the Palestinians confirmed a new Prime Minister. However, the office of Ariel Sharon have said that road map will not be discussed properly until the end of the Iraqi war. (FT 28/03/03) In a recent meeting between Sharon and the US ambassador, the road map and the Palestine situation was not even discussed, leading to concerns that the US commitment to resolving the Intifada was wavering.

POLITICAL DEBATES

UN debate rages

After the conflicts that occurred during the run-up to the abortive second United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution on Iraq, the Council held an open debate on Iraq, which was conducted between March 26 and 27.  Up to 70 countries were expected to participate in this debate.  At the beginning of this session, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan was careful to recall the Fourth Geneva Convention under which, as he noted, “those in effective control of an territory are responsible for meeting the humanitarian needs of its population.”  Annan went on to state “no one, on either side, must obstruct that relief”.  The first day of the debate itself saw the majority of contributors deploring what they claimed to be a war that violated international law and the UN Charter.  Exceptions to this included Australia, Japan and Poland.  The second day of the debate continued in much the same fashion, with many countries deploring the recourse to war and all calling for the immediate provision of humanitarian assistance.  The end of the debate saw US Ambassador John Negroponte walk out during the address by the Iraqi ambassador in which the US and UK were accused of starting a war of extermination against the Iraqi people.

Official opposition in the US gives Bush carte blanche

In a departure from his recent criticisms that Bush had failed to get international support for military action, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle said he believed that the international community was joining the coalition. Both Mr. Daschle and House Minority Leader and California Democrat, Nancy Pelosi, said they would not be questioning Bush’s prosecution of the war. However, Ms. Pelosi did have some criticism, saying, “We were hoping for a best-case scenario — that has not materialized."

Healing EU/US relations

Britain and France have tried to overcome their differences, with top diplomats at the UN from both countries agreeing on the need for the UN to play an important role in post-conflict reconstruction and the re-building of international relations (The Independent 28/03/03). Both sides acknowledge that formal EU involvement in Iraq would not be possible until the row between the two nations was resolved. Chris Patten, added his voice to discussions on EU-US relations noting that the transatlantic relationship can still be rescued if Britain and France work together to create a strong Europe rather than leaving it as a weak and divided alternative to US power (Financial Times 24/03/03). Meanwhile, on March 27 Commission President, Romano Prodi, outlined the need for a joint EU defence capability. He said, ‘The choice is clear: do we want to be left out, all of us, from the management of world affairs? Or do we want to play a part, on an equal footing with our allies, in building a new world order.’ He added that such a move would strengthen, not undermine NATO.

$75 billion, devil in the detail

Republican House Majority Leader from Texas, Tom DeLay, was critical of the Administration’s request for flexibility in how the $74.7 billion supplemental appropriation requested for prosecution of the war was to be spent. This extremely large supplemental request includes only $2.443 billion for initial relief and reconstruction efforts in Iraq. While the bulk of the funds ($62.6 billion) go to military programmes in Iraq, funds are also provided to assist countries in the region with the largest amounts going to Jordan, Israel and Turkey. Other unrelated items, like programs in Colombia for example, receive funding as well. The proposed budget categories are unclear and were labelled ‘slush funds’ by Democrats, angry at the Administration’s attempts to weaken and circumvent Congressional oversight and spending roles. The day before (March 26), the Senate confirmed its decision to slash the Administration’s tax cuts in half, a surprising political set-back for the President.

US humanitarian organisations are concerned that the Administration’s supplemental request, based upon estimates of a one-month war, will not provide sufficient funding. In addition, funds for Iraq have been redirected from other budgets in the foreign affairs accounts and while some money is requested to replenish these programmes, not all accounts have been reimbursed. Further, humanitarian organizations urge that humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Iraq be administered by civilian authorities – not the US military – and that the UN plays a leadership role as soon as possible.

The House will consider the supplemental appropriations measure early next week and the Senate is expected to take up the measure shortly thereafter. The President has set a deadline of April 11 for the measure to be completed.

UK Treasury releases more money for war

Chancellor Gordon Brown announced on March 27 that the Treasury had allocated a further £1.25 billion for the war in Iraq. The increase now sees the reserve fund for the war standing at £3 billion. In the same statement Brown pledged £120 million to the Department for International Development for aid in Iraq.

US expectations of swift victory toned down

There has been much debate within the US about the length of the war. In order to win round support from the public for war beforehand, members of the Administration talked of swift victory with overwhelming forces. There was much talk of ‘shock and awe’ tactics. Two days into the campaign, after an unprecedented push into Iraqi territory captured on American TV, President Bush stated, “A campaign on harsh terrain in a vast country could be longer and more difficult than some have predicted”. Rumsfeld, in his daily bulletin on March 25, stated “We're still, needless to say, much closer to the beginning than the end.”

LATEST POLL RESULTS

US public support for the war holds

As its first week drew to a close, public support for the war in Iraq – which increased markedly in the aftermath of President Bush’s ultimatum – stayed constant in both the US and the UK.  A recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll put this support at 78%, while the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll put American backing at 72%.  Support for the President himself increased 13 points, in what has been described as part of the expected “rally effect.”  However this, and most other polls, demonstrated that the public has already grown less optimistic regarding the likely length of the war.  This poll indicated that only 28% of respondents believed the war would be over in less than a month (a drop from 34% who believed the same the Thursday previous).   The Fox News poll found that 53% of those polled believed the war would be over in months.  On March 23, a Washington Post-ABC News poll claimed that 54% of those questioned believed that the US and its allies would sustain “significant” casualties.  The same poll indicated that 45% – up from 37% on the previous Thursday – expected the war to last months, as opposed to days or weeks.  Finally, a CBS News/New York Times poll, conducted March 24, put support for the war at 75%, down slightly from the 80% support it had apparently commanded only a day before.  Once again, perceptions of the possible length of the war had altered.  In March 23 poll, 53% expected a “quick, successful” war, while 43% expected a “long, costly” war.  A day later these numbers were reversed.  This echoed the drop in the percentage of those who, on March 23, believed that the war would be over in a few weeks:  from 42% to 34%.  In addition, the percentage of those who believed that the war would last “many months” increased from 53% to 62%.

British public starting to expect drawn out conflict

In the UK, polls also reflected growing scepticism regarding the chances of a quick victory.  On March 23, the Daily Telegraph/ITV News Tracker poll showed that 40% of those polled believed that coalition forces would defeat Iraqi forces within a fortnight, while 30% believed victory would come within a month and 18% believed it would come within a few months.  On March 25, however, these numbers had changed to 25%, 34% and 32% respectively.  By March 27, only 20% believed in victory within a fortnight, 33% believed it would come within a month and 37% believed it would come within a few months, up 19% from only four days earlier.  Such results were echoed by another Yougov poll, this time prepared for Channel 4 News.  In this poll, those believing that war would bring “a quick victory for Britain and America” had dropped from 30% in February to 11% in March.  Those who expect “an eventual victory” for the US and UK, on the other hand, had increased from 40% to 74%.

In terms of general support for the war and political leaders, numbers remained relatively steady, with support at 59% in the latest Daily Telegraph/ITV News Tracker poll (up from the 56% support which it had commanded throughout the week). This level of support was much the same in a poll prepared for the Sunday Times  March 21 and 22.  The Daily Telegraph/ITV News Tracker poll also found an increase in approval for Bush’s handling of the crisis between March 20 and 27, from 38% to 47%, with a slight drop on March 25, to 43%.  Approval for Prime Minister Blair’s handling of the crisis increased from 47% to 56% between March 20 and 25 and increased to 62% during a poll conducted two days later. 

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