www. iraqconflict. org

September 25, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

The basis on which the invasion of Iraq took place continues to crumble dramatically.  Whereas Tony Blair described Iraq as a “serious and current” threat, recent disclosures significantly undermine that contention. Evidence arising from the Hutton Inquiry into the death of weapons expert Dr David Kelly has revealed that the Prime Minister’s own Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, did not believe that Iraq posed a threat, let alone an imminent threat. He also failed to see what Saddam’s motivation for using his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) might be, other than if he was first attacked.

In the run up to war Blair made great play of the need to eliminate Iraqi WMD to avoid it falling into terrorist hands. Yet, he failed to inform the country that the Joint Intelligence Committee had “assessed that any collapse of the Iraqi regime would increase the risk of chemical and biological warfare technology or agents finding their way into the hands of terrorists…” Leaks of a draft interim report from the CIA-led Iraq Survey Group now suggest that following an intensive six-month search of Iraq, not a single trace of an illegal arsenal has been found (Guardian, September 25).

Stephen Pullinger, Director, International Security Information Service

“Terrorists love state sponsors, countries that provide them with cash, arms, refuge, a protected place to rest and plan future operations. Saddam’s Iraq was one of those countries.” Coalition Provisional Authority head, Paul Bremer.

"We so poisoned the well in the lead-up to this war that no one expects the international community to provide more than $2bn or $3bn at the donors ‘conference. That's a terrible indictment . . . of our foreign policy." Senator Joseph Biden.

“Two years ago, I told the Congress and the country that the war on terror would be a lengthy war, a different kind of war, fought on many fronts in many places. Iraq is now the central front.” President Bush in a speech delivered on US television on September 7

“I am almost certain that Iraq got rid of its illegal weapons immediately after the first Gulf War.”  Hans Blix, the former Chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq. 

“We have come to a fork in the road.  This may be a moment no less decisive than 1945 itself, when the United Nations was founded... The Council… may need to begin a discussion on the criteria for an early authorisation of coercive measures to address certain types of threats, for instance terrorist groups armed with weapons of mass destruction” Kofi Annan speaking to the General Assembly (23/09/03)

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

US seeks billions for Iraq

On 18 September, President Bush submitted his fiscal year 2004 budget supplemental request to Congress. Out of a total request of $87 billion, a large proportion, $71 billion, would go towards the operation in Iraq. Of this, $51 billion would go to military operations in Iraq, and $20 billion would go towards reconstruction. (see Council for a Livable World’s Web site.)  The supplemental request is in addition to the $79 billion that Congress approved for wartime funding earlier in the year. (Defense News 15/9/03 p. 36). According to The Guardian, the $87 billion for Iraq represents a greater US spend per head on Iraqis than the Federal Government plans to spend within the US per head.

Senator Carl Levin (Democrat, Michigan) called the supplemental request a “bitter pill for the American people to swallow”. (Defense News 15/9/03 p. 36). Defense Secretary Defense Donald Rumsfeld defended the large sum, telling the Senate Appropriations Committee that the cost would be "far greater" if the United States sends a message to terrorists that "we're not willing to spend what it takes" to combat terrorism. (Defense Link, American Forces Press Service, 23/9/03) 

President Bush's speech to the UN on September 23 drew sharp criticism across the political spectrum for not meeting the concerns of potential donors elsewhere.

EU to give €200 million to Iraq

According to a report in the FT, the EU will only pledge €200 million at October’s donors’ pledging conference on Iraq. The sum, less than the EU has given towards reconstruction in Afghanistan, is far short of what the US has requested. The meeting, to be held in Madrid, will take place on October 23.

US experts press for non-military authority in Iraq

During a hearing of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 23 September, US policy experts urged that authority for the post-conflict reconstruction process be taken from the Defense Department and given to departments with more experience in non-military challenges, such as the State Department and USAID.  James Dobbins, a former US emissary to Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Somalia, called the Defense Department’s civilian efforts an “obstacle” to more international contributions. (Washington Post 24/9/03).

UN agencies: nearly half of Iraqis need assistance

According to a report published on 24 September by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme, nearly half of all Iraqis are estimated to be poor and in need of assistance. The report added that about 60 percent of the Iraqi population are currently unemployed and depend largely on public food rations, with millions solely reliant on the oil-for-food programme for food.

Iraq to remain in OPEC

Iraqi interim Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum announced on 24 September that Iraq is to remain a member of the OPEC group of oil producing states. Speaking at a Vienna meeting of OPEC, the minister also said that Iraqi oil production was presently at 1.8 million barrels per day, two thirds of pre-war levels, and that a production target of 2.8 million barrels per day has been set for the end of March 2004.

Privatisation of Iraq on hold

On September 21, Kamel al-Gailani, finance minister in the Iraqi provisional government, announced new laws to open up Iraq to foreign investors, only for the Iraqi Council to put on hold the decision for more time to study the option. Speaking at the Dubai meeting of the Group of Seven, al-Gailani said that all assets apart from the oil industry would be allowed to be owned 100% by foreign companies. The move, supported by the CPA, would also see the many state-owned industries and services privatised and a capped 15% tax on funds invested until 2005. The move also has the backing of US Treasury Secretary John Snow. 

Unions to visit Iraq to call for workers’ rights

The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions, with a membership of 158 million, will send a delegation to Iraq to attempt to promote rights for workers in the oil fields, ports and public services. The ICFTU will also attempt to set up a union for workers, who did not have an independent trade union system under Saddam Hussain. (The Independent 21/09/03)

Security Situation

Increased security for Iraq Governing Council

Members of the Iraq Governing Council have called for an immediate improvement in security following the death of female council member Aqila al-Hashmi.  Coalition forces initially offered troops and armoured vehicles for the council members but these were rejected on the grounds that the Iraqis did not want to draw unwanted attention to themselves or be seen to be too closely associated with the coalition.  Instead council members have recruited their own guards from relatives and tribesmen but requested that the US provide them with weapons training and passes. (The Guardian 22/09/03)

Report details Shi’ite tensions in Iraq

Congressional group queries media reports on violence in Iraq

A bipartisan congressional group from the House Armed Services Committee visited Iraq for three days to assess conditions in the country and check on the welfare of US troops. Members of both parties felt that the press has been overplaying the violence in Iraq and not paying enough attention to any progress.  Representative Gene Taylor (Democrat, Mississippi) said:  “In fairness, the war is neither going as well as the Administration says it’s going or as badly as the media says it’s going.” (The Hill 23/9/03)

Legal Dimension

Immunity offered in search for WMD 

According to accounts of the interim report on the search for Iraq’s WMD, produced by the US-led Iraq Survey Group, no evidence has yet been found to prove that Iraq was an imminent threat to the UK, US or its near neighbours (25/09/03). The final report by Dr Kay, a former UN inspector, could be published in the near future, though this is uncertain.  In an effort to encourage former scientists from the regime to offer more information, the Bush administration has offered immunity to several people, including former defence minister Sultan Hashim Ahmed.  UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw declined to comment when asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on the speculation and suggested that evidence obtained by UN weapons inspectors over many years provided all the necessary evidence. 

Death penalty considered in Iraq

The US and UK are in discussions over the potential use of the death penalty in Iraq, according to reports on 25 September. The British Attorney-General, Lord Goldsmith, has been ask by the UK Government to advise on the legal implications of restoring the penalty. The Iraqi Governing Council has called for the return of the penalty for acts of sabotage, rape and murder as a means of restoring security to the country. (The Times 25/09/03)

Iraqi council moves to ban Arab broadcasters

The Iraqi governing council moved to ban leading Arab television stations from government offices and news conferences after accusing them of encouraging attacks on US military and Iraqi officials and promoting sectarian divisions. The decision taken on 24 September has yet to be commented on by the Coalition Provisional Authority which has the final authority over the council but the two stations, Qatar based al-Jazeera and UAE based al-Arabiya, have both denied the accusations and have vowed to keep broadcasting from Iraq.

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

Kofi Annan announces 'fork in the road' for the UN

In a speech to the General Assembly on September 23, Kofi Annan pointed out the growing tendency to justify unilateral intervention by some future threat was a fundamental challenge to the existing world order and could lead to a violent anarchy. He said it was up to the UN to reconsider the very foundation stones of the international legal system with regard to multilateral pre-emptive intervention, in particular against terrorists with WMD, to adequately provide for international security. 

Bush denies Iraq link with Al Qaeda

This month President Bush formally stated that he did not believe there was any link between Saddam Hussein and the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States.  However, he added,  "There's no question that Saddam Hussein had al-Qaida ties". (Houston Chronicle 18/9/03) According to a recent poll, 70% of Americans still believe that Sadaam was personally involved in the September 11 attacks.

US agrees Turkish loan deal

The US has made $8.5 billion in loans available to the Turkish government. The announcement was made on September 22 at the meeting of the Group of Seven in Dubai. The loans are available on the condition that Turkey cooperates with the US in Iraq and implements ‘strong’ economic policies. This condition has led Turkish opposition groups to accuse Ankara of ‘mortgaging’ Turkish foreign policy. 

More troops urged for Afghanistan

The EU’s envoy to Afghanistan, Francesco Vendrell, has called for more troops, arguing that proportionately fewer troops have been sent to Afghanistan than to any other trouble spot. He states that the International Security Assistance Force has 15,000 troops for Kabul and its vicinity, while Kosovo received some 40,000 and the smaller territory of East Timor received a multinational force of 10,000.  The resurgence of Taliban fighters in the south and southeast of Afghanistan has increased instability in the country over recent weeks. (European Voice, September 18-24). 

Middle East intelligence chief recalled

POLITICAL DEBATES

Bush seeks to win back France and Germany at the UN

The US draft resolution on Iraq remains on the table in New York. The key sticking point remains the political power within Baghdad, which the US is not prepared to relinquish.

President Bush met briefly with French President Jacques Chirac in New York on September 23, but the meeting failed to help the two resolve their differences over Iraq. Chirac advocates the handing over of power to an Iraqi transitional authority within 90 days, but Bush does not want to rescind US authority until a constitution has been developed and elections have been held in Iraq. Nevertheless, Chirac agreed not obstruct the passage of a US-inspired UN resolution to acquire more multilateral participation for operations in Iraq. (Washington Post 24/9/03 p. A24)

On September 24, Bush met Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany. Schroeder offered help in training Iraqi military and police. (CNN.com 24/9/03)

Hutton Inquiry closes in Britain

Lord Hutton finished the inquiry into the death of the weapons expert David Kelly on September 25 with his report due to be published in a month’s time. More than 70 witnesses have given evidence to an inquiry that is likely to cost more than £1m, not including the government's considerable departmental costs. The inquiry has raised wide-reaching questions including practice at the BBC as well as the role of government and the intelligence services. The recent recalling of witnesses led to apologies from the BBC for their style of reporting. Lord Hutton does not expect to be presenting his report until late November or December.

Lib Dems urge new inquiry

During this week’s Liberal Democrat party conference in the UK, calls were made for a new inquiry into the war in Iraq to scrutinise the legal basis for going to war. Strong condemnation was made of the fact that British prisoners were being held in Guantanamo Bay.

UK development committee holds hearings on Iraq

On September 18 the UK International Development Committee published oral and written evidence from two sessions held in June. The Committee heard oral evidence from The Rt Hon Baroness Amos, Secretary of State for International Development, Ann Clwyd MP, Special Envoy to the Prime Minister on Human Rights Issues in Iraq, and several NGOs. 

LATEST POLL RESULTS

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows a continuing decline in public support for the US intervention in Iraq. Americans are now about evenly divided over whether the Iraq situation was worth going to war over. According to this survey, conducted from 19-21 September, just 50% of Americans believe that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, with 48% disagreeing. Support is down from August when 63% felt it was worth the military effort.  These results are based on telephone interviews of 1,003 adults (18 years and older).

Gallup conducted a survey of Iraqi adults (18 years and older) residing in urban areas within the governate of Baghdad. The organization found that Iraqis polled felt by a 2-to-1 margin that the ousting of Saddam Hussein was worth any hardships they might have personally suffered since the US and British-led invasion.  All 1,178 interviews were conducted face-to-face in the privacy of the respondents’ own homes. Interviewing was conducted from 28 August through 4 September 2003. 

According to a Guardian/ICM poll published on September 24, Tony Blair’s popularity has taken a significant hit as a direct result of the Hutton Inquiry and the lack of evidence of WMD in Iraq. 61% of voters are unhappy with his performance, an increase from 42% in April. Equally worrying he appears to have lost his cross-party appeal, making him vulnerable to challenge from within his own party.