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February
24, 2003
CONTENTS
EDITORIAL
Former
US Attorney General Ramsey Clark has documented in The Fire This Time how foreign policy planners spent years spreading
misinformation to prepare the American public for the 1991
Gulf War. In an Observer Online comment
piece last week, I suggested that Western intelligence
agencies might be reverting to Cold War type by indulging in
threat inflation with regard to Iraqi WMD capabilities.
Martin Woolcott also drew attention to this possibility
in a thoughtful opinion
piece in The
Guardian on 20 February. A questioning media is a vital
bulwark to the worst excesses of government information
management. The role of the media in reporting conflict was
the focus of the second
of our discussion papers published last week and later at
a packed media panel discussion in London organised with Reporting
the World.
Also
last week, the British Prime Minister made a strong moral case
for war with Iraq, apparently shifting the primary war aim
from disarmament to regime change. The third
of our discussion papers released last week also explored
the issue of regime change, but without war. Mundher Adhami,
an Iraqi exile in London, makes a strong moral case for the
continuation of inspections and the lifting of sanctions as an
alternative method for achieving regime change.
Peter
Calvocoressi wrote rather prophetically towards the end of the
Cold War, “The flouting of the law, particularly by the
mighty, is far more dangerous than the mere existence of piles
of weapons of whatever kind”. Those
preparing for war have
yet to make a convincing legal case, and demonstrate that all
alternatives have been exhausted.
Dr
Ian Davis, Director BASIC
QUOTES OF THE WEEK
“Some of the rhetoric I hear about America is actually more savage
than some of the rhetoric I hear about Saddam,” Tony Blair
"We
cannot sit by and idly let Iraq continue to thwart the will of
the international community", US Secretary of State Colin
Powell.
“The drums of war are getting louder,
threats and warnings are deafening and the omens of terrifying
conflagration and destruction are massing on the horizon",
Saudi Arabia’s UN Ambassador Fawzi Shobokshi.
“Saddam
for all his crimes did not have a hand in 9/11, but Bush is a
philosopher. 9/11 is evil; Saddam is evil, all evil is connected. Ergo,
Iraq." Norman Mailer speaking on America’s position on
Iraq.
"If
we are to act together, if our support is meaningful and
necessary to the US, then the US should take into account our
sensitivities and consider with good will our demands".
Head of Turkey's ruling party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan on
negotiations over US troop deployments in Turkey in exchange
for aid.
UN
ACTIVITIES
Drawing
up a second resolution
Pressure
from the US and UK has been building on other members of the
Security Council to agree to a second resolution. Britain
is to circulate a draft this week which Sir Jeremy Greenstock,
Britain’s ambassador to the UN said would ‘explicitly or
implicitly set a deadline for Iraqi compliance'.
Yesterday Blair launched what he
described as his 'last push for
Peace'. British and American officials are keen to ensure that
discussion on the second resolution will not drag on, but be
resolved and voted upon within two weeks of being tabled, soon
after Hans Blix is due to report March 7.
Attempts
to build support
Mexico
and Syria
have already indicated they would not yet support a second
resolution, and Pakistan, Guinea and Cameroon have also
expressed strong reservations. Efforts by Secretary of State
Colin Powell in
a visit to the Far East to sway the Chinese vote (as well
as to draw responses to developments in North Korea together)
have yet to show signs of success. Public expression of
opposition to war has bolstered French and German government
opinion against support. The French position has also been
strengthened with support from 52 African states at last
Thursday's annual Franco-African summit in Paris. Former
Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov is visiting Baghdad on
a surprise official diplomatic visit. At present it may
be that the United States is counting on abstentions from the permanent
members in the final vote.
Inspections
The
standoff between the UN and Iraq over Iraq’s Al-Samoud 2
missile programme commanded the most attention from UN
inspectors.
These missiles were found to have exceeded the 150km
limit imposed by several kilometres.
On Friday, February 21, Hans Blix therefore ordered
Iraq to begin the dismantling of this programme by March 1.
Iraq, while thus far taking no action, nonetheless has
vowed itself ready to resolve this problem.
The issue presents a significant problem for them. While they
are keen not to give the United States and United Kingdom any
pretext for claiming significant breaches of Resolution 1441,
these missiles form one of the most important elements of the
conventional forces defending Baghdad. This particular crisis
encapsulates for the Iraqis their principal complaint with the
Inspection regime: that it undermines their conventional
capability at the very moment they are under threat of
invasion.
Unsurprisingly,
the Iraqi reticence to comply has prompted criticism from,
among others, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.
Elsewhere,
IAEA interviews with Iraqi engineers continued and the first
U2 flight – a previous source of controversy – took place
on February 17.
Regional
and Strategic Impacts
US troop deployments
in Turkey
Turkey
postponed a parliamentary vote on the deployment of US troops
to the Northern border with Iraq.
The vote is likely to take place on February 25, but
indications are that agreement has been reached between the
governments. Washington
warned it might abandon plans to provide a $26bn aid package
in loans, in response to what it sees as hard bargaining on
the part of Ankara. NATO
also has agreed to send AWACS planes to help protect Turkey if war
breaks out.
The
Turkish government has its own concerns, with 95% of
its population opposed to war with Iraq and the possibility
that war might establish a Kurdish state in its wake. Turkey
originally requested $92bn (but then scaled down to $30bn) as
well as $150m to ferry troops from the port on the
Mediterranean to Turkey's border with Iraq and a request that
all US military equipment passing through Turkey be taxed. (The Times
24/02/03 and The Financial Times 20/02/03)
Iraqi
preparations
Saddam Hussein
gathered the nations top military
and political aides to discuss military and civilian
preparedness for the eventual US-led attack on Iraq.
The agenda included discussions of boosting military
capabilities and ways to give every Iraqi citizen the "honour"
in participating in national defence.
In order to do this, the Iraqi government handed out a
three-month supply of food and urged citizens to "defeat
the US aggressors".
Middle
East ‘road map for peace’ stalled
Representatives
from the US, EU, UN and
Russian Federation (The Quartet) met in London last week, to
try and push forward the ‘road map’ for Middle East Peace,
which was agreed last December, but not made public. The US has reportedly
further delayed publication arguing that it should not be
released until Arial Sharon forms his newly elected
government, which may take a month or more.
According to
Israeli newspaper, Ha'aretz,
the EU, UN and Russia last week demanded that Mr Arafat create
a Prime Ministerial post.
Mr Arafat agreed, which represented a success
for the EU who had been at odds with the US over Arafat's fate. According to the Ha’aretz editorial, the Quartet have
already found their candidate, the Palestinian
Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, although he has apparently rejected
the idea.
Saudis
highlight Arab disunity
Saudi Arabian
officials this week again highlighted the sense of discord
between Arab states. Foreign
Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal rejected
the idea of an emergency meeting of Arab states regarding war,
“If that summit does not emerge with a decision concerning
the Iraq crisis agreed upon by all Arab states, then it could
make matters worse.” His
comments came a week after tensions between nations had marred
a conference of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo. Whether the
emergency meeting takes place is still in doubt, however, the
Organization of Islamic Conference plan to hold a conference
in early March in Qatar.
Iran
hardens line on US
Iran’s
resolve against unilateral action against Iraq stiffened this
week. On February 19 Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami, while saying that “nobody backs the regime
of Saddam”, American
policy makers should recognise the world feeling against the
war and show restraint. On
the same day Iranian Defence Minister Rear-Admiral Ali Shamkhani said that American aircraft would
not be allowed in Iranian airspace, citing the shooting
down of an Iranian airliner in 1988 as the reason for the
mistrust. US-Iranian tensions were already high after reports
on February 18 of Iranian-backed troops
operating in northern Iraq.
Future
of post war Iraq unclear
There was confusion
and debate over the administration and ruling of Iraq after
any potential war this week. On February 21 the Guardian said
that Kurdish opposition groups were attempting to meet in
Arbil in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq to discuss future
options. This was contradicted by a report in the Financial
Times today (February 24) putting the meeting elsewhere in
Iraq in Salahuddin. Both reports highlighted the Kurds
eagerness to unite to assert their position in the face of a
perceived threat from Turkey and their position in a post war
Iraq. The lack of harmony between the Kurdish groups and the
failure of Iraqi opposition groups in exile to work together
has led the US to look at taking a more active role in the
running of the country. Reports have put Jay Garner, a former
US Army General, as head of an “Office of Reconstruction and
Humanitarian Assistance” which would over see the NGO
efforts to rebuild the country and look after the country
before new leadership could be introduced. The issue was
further confused when the UAE newspaper, Gulf News, on
February 24 reported
that Arab countries would be represented in the new
administration.
UK
and European Debates
The
battle for British opinion
Tony
Blairs audience with the Pope, in Rome this weekend followed a
week long push to find public support for his moral case for
regime change in Iraq.
Referring, on Tuesday 18, to the many letters
he receives from Iraqi exiles, describing the atrocities
committed by Saddam Hussein.
It has since been
reported that the allegations made
by Dr Awadh, a member of the US backed opposition group the
Iraqi National Accord had originally appeared in the
Washington post in 1998.
The
heads of Britain’s Anglican and Catholic churches challenged
Blair's moral stance, issuing an unusual joint
statement calling for more to be
done to avoid war but
recognising that ‘The
moral alternative to military action cannot be inaction,
passivity, appeasement or indifference.’
However
preparations for war appeared to intensify as British
nationals were warned to leave Iraq to avoid the risk of being
taken hostage. The
Foreign Office said the decision was in response to
‘rising tension in the region and the threat from
terrorism’ Aid agencies also pulled staff out of Northern
Iraq due to their own intelligence reports. (Financial
Times February 20). Geoff
Hoon, in a speech today to British forces in Kuwait, warned
that action was required now to tackle the Iraqi threat.
EU
agrees common position but splits remain
Speaking
after the agreement of a common
position on Iraq, at the EU emergency summit on Monday 17
Commission President Romano Prodi said "there are neither
victors nor vanquished". EU
leaders agreed that UN inspections should be given time and
resources though they could not continue
"indefinitely". They said force "should be used
only as a last resort".
Leaders also warned Iraq that it had a
"final opportunity" to avoid war, but failed to agree
how long was left or whether a new UN resolution was needed to
trigger military action.
Jacques Chirac pledged publicly that France "would
have no choice but to oppose" a second UN resolution.
Candidate countries were not invited to the summit but later
agreed with the common EU position.
OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly discussions
The
Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE debated the effects of
the Iraq crisis on the OSCE area during its annual two-day
Winter Meeting in Vienna on February 21.
More
than 250 parliamentarians from the 55 OSCE participating
States attended the meeting.
US
Debates
The
stationing of American troops on Turkish soil and the pursuit
of a second UNSC resolution, following on from Resolution
1441, have dominated the debates in Washington this week.
It became
clear this week that the United States, with the United
Kingdom, will indeed seek such a resolution, and President
Bush confirmed this for the first time on February 22.
This resolution, he stated, would confirm that Saddam
Hussein was not complying with the terms of Resolution 1441.
The relevance of the UN was again highlighted, most
notably by White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, who spoke of
the need for the UNSC to back up its words with action and to
play a “meaningful
role.” Secretary of State Powell, on a four day visit to
Japan, China and South Korea, stated
in Tokyo that time for action to disarm Iraq was drawing
to a close.
Opposition to
an early war has surfaced within the Congressional Republican
Party. Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and member of the Foreign
Relations Committee said,
"Let's not abridge the channels in the process that we
are now working through." A Vietnam veteran himself, he
went on to say, "Vietnam was a unilateral action. That
ended in disaster for the US after 11 years. We need public
opinion with us. We need world opinion with us."
LATEST
POLL RESULTS
Although war
with Iraq appears to be drawing closer still, public opinion
in the United States continues to be divided.
Indeed, some polls indicate that support for such a war
appears to have waned slightly.
A recent Gallup
poll, for example, put this support at 59%. This was identified as a small drop from that which existed
in the immediate aftermath of Secretary of State Powell’s
February 5 speech before the UNSC.
The same poll underlined a continuing desire for
international support and UN backing for war with Iraq, with
support for a unilateral war standing at 30%, down from 39%.
Another
poll
conducted this week put support for a war at 54%, with 41%
opposed. If the
war were to consist only of a bombing campaign, this poll
indicated that backing dropped to 38%, with 50% opposition.
With the use of hundreds of thousands of ground troops
to invade Iraq, support and opposition were nearly even with
46% in favour and 47% against. While revealing different numbers, the desire for
international support was again emphasized, with only 43%
supporting a unilateral American war and 50% opposed.
A PIPA/Knowledge
Networks poll published this weekend found similar
results, with 60% in favour of continuing with inspections if
there were no UN approval for military action (reducing to 54%
if allies were supportive). In the official press
release, Steven Kull, director of the Program on
International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland,
comments, "While [Americans] do not have much confidence
that the inspections will be effective, they are not ready to
give them up as long there is some hope."
UP-COMING
EVENTS
Feb 24: 13th
Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (which includes Iraq) in
Kuala Lumpur.
February 26: UK Parliamentary debate on deployment of
military forces in the Gulf.
February 28: Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei report to the
Security Council.
March 1: Blix's deadline to Iraq for the commencement of
destruction of the
Al-Samoud
2 missiles.
March 1: Deadline for Pentagon report laying out the
strategic nuclear force plans through fiscal 2012.
March 7: Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei report to the Security Council, which could preface a
vote on the Second Resolution soon afterwards. Foreign
Ministers will convene at the meeting.
March 11: 123rd Meeting of the OPEC Conference –
Vienna, Austria.
March 17: UN Commission on Human Rights Session – Geneva,
Switzerland.
End
of March: Blix submits "key remaining disarmament
tasks.”
April
1: Deadline for Pentagon report on weapons to defeat hardened
and deeply buried targets.
May
31: Deadline for National Academy of Science study on nuclear
and conventional weapons.
June
3: NATO Ministerial meeting – Spain.
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