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January
24, 2003
CONTENTS
EDITORIAL
Paul
Eavis, Director Saferworld
QUOTES OF THE WEEK
“War is always an admission of failure. Everything
must be done to avoid it.” French President Jacques Chirac
"You're thinking of Europe as Germany
and France. I don't. I think that's old Europe," US
Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on reports that France and
German would not vote for military action in the UN Security
Council.
“I rarely find it difficult to sleep” Saddam
Hussein on whether he was losing sleep over a possible
invasion.
“It
is possible any minute, any second while the inspectors are
still here, the aggression will take place.”
Taha Yassin Ramadan, Iraqi Vice President
LATEST
POLL RESULTS
During a week in which political rhetoric became more
bellicose, US and UK opinion polls indicated a decrease in
public support for war. Public
belief that military action requires the backing of the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) and cannot be unilaterally
embarked upon is hardening.
A Newsweek
Poll found 31% support for a unilateral US attack on Iraq,
39% support for an attack with one or two major allies without
UN support. This
support jumped to 81%, however, if an attack were to be
launched with allies and with the full support of the UNSC.
Overall support for George W. Bush’s handling of the
situation in Iraq saw a modest 5% fall from October to 53%.
Similarly, an ABC
News /Washington Post Poll released on the 23 January
showed an 8% drop.
 
In the UK, too, public opinion is apparently becoming
increasingly ill-disposed towards a war.
A MORI
poll of 21 January showed that only 61% of the British
public supported a war in Iraq with UN support – down from
71% support that it commanded in September.
Without UN approval, support for a war drops to 15%.
A Yougov
poll revealed 74% support for British contribution to a
UN-approved war in Iraq and only 23% support without such
approval. A different poll, conducted by ICM
for The Guardian, put opposition to any war at 47%.
Across Europe polls indicate there is growing opposition to
Iraq. In Germany,
a poll published by Infrasrst-Dimpa
found 76% against a UN-approved war.
In Spain the Royal
Eclano Institute found that 60% would find an attack
justifiable if it could be demonstrated that Iraq had weapons
of mass destruction. In Italy a survey in La Repubblica found that 61% were against a war.
The poll conducted by expression-publique
in concert with Le Monde and Yahoo France concluded that 41%
of those polled believed that Iraq possesses weapons of mass
destruction (as opposed to 75%
who apparently believe the same thing in the UK). Nonetheless, 89% of respondents felt that the US had decided
upon military action regardless of the findings of UN
inspectors.
Regional
and Strategic Impacts
Arab nations meet to discuss options for peace
On
the 23 January Turkey hosted foreign ministers from Egypt,
Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Jordan. Speaking
the day before Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami was unsure that the UN Security Council would
endorse an attack but said “Iraq must definitely submit to
international principles”. Turkey called the conference as a response to fears that any
potential war could destabilise the region and its own
economy. Turkey
suffered a $30bn loss in trade after the Gulf War of 1991 and
recent polls have shown 80% of the Turkish public oppose war.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are under pressure to allow the use
land and airspace should the US order an invasion of Iraq.
However,
many Arab states are sceptical of the outcome of the
conference and believe that if a serious attempt is to be made
to avert war, it will have to be led by the Arab states,
traditionally closer to the Iraqi leadership rather than
Turkey.
Exile discussion and regime change
Officially
the subject of granting Saddam Hussein exile was off the
conference's agenda, but recent
leaks from the Saudi Government and the meeting of the
Turkish, Egyptian and Saudi premiers at the weekend have
revealed negotiations of the ‘exile’ option are taking
place.
The Iraqi government have reacted
angrily to suggestions of Saddam Hussein’s exile and
regime change “That’s the intimidation that cannot be
accepted” Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz told
ABC news, “He (Saddam Hussein) will continue leading
Iraq until the last minute of his life.”
UK asylum seekers suggest Saddam opposition growing
The UK Foreign Office have revealed that a number of
Iraqi asylum seekers are reporting growing internal opposition
to the Iraqi regime. Anti-Saddam
slogans have been appearing on statues and photographs of
Saddam, and opposition groups are stepping up activities.
Russia and China
Russia
and China have joined France and Germany as significant
members of the UN Security Council voicing their opposition to
war in Iraq. A
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman described
the position of the Chinese government as “extremely
close” to that of France and stressed
China’s desire to resolve the issue through “diplomatic
and political means.”
UK
and European Debates
Alliance fractures
The question of the relevance of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in the post-Cold War world
indirectly resurfaced this week.
NATO, whose assistance was spurned by the US in its
attack on Afghanistan last year, was this time approached by
the US with a request to consider six measures to provide
military assistance. France
and Germany, supported by Belgium and Luxembourg, blocked a
decision on this. The
November NATO summit in Prague, saw agreement
to establish a NATO Reaction Force (NRF) in an attempt to
consolidate the organisation into meeting the “new security
challenges” deemed to have arisen following the attacks on
the World Trade Center. Widely
seen at the time as evidence of American re-engagement with
the alliance, it remains unclear how this recent setback will
change US perceptions. Their attitude may also be influenced
by the choice of replacement Secretary-General for Lord
Robertson, who this week announced his resignation. US representatives were concerned to see
him go, as he has proved a close ally in their efforts to
persuade European states to increase their defence spending
and to follow US leads.
The US strongly warned France and Germany that they
would be “held to account” if they did not support tough
action to disarm Saddam Hussein.
Tony Blair warned
that an EU-US split would be disastrous, noting “every other
country in the world can play games with that”.
Criticism
at the World Economic Forum
The
US was criticised
yesterday for its go-it-alone policy towards war with Iraq
in the opening speech at the Davos World Economic Forum by its
President Pascal Couchepin.
He argued that the threat of war is hampering the
already sluggish US economy, which in turn could slow down any
form of global revival. The Bush Administration will be
sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to Davos tomorrow to
defend Administration policy to an increasingly dubious
audience.
More UK troops sent to the Gulf as pressure mounts on
UK Government
The UK Government have committed a further 26,000
troops to the gulf region, bringing the total deployed so far
to 35,000. In announcing the deployment to the Commons on
Monday, Defence Minister Geoff Hoon maintained the present
government line that war was not “imminent or inevitable”
but added that troops where there to “present him (Hussein)
with a clear and credible threat of force”.
On Tuesday 21 Prime Minister Blair reiterated these
sentiments to a specially convened meeting of senior MP’s
stating “as a result of the military build-up and as a
result of the determination to see this thing through, the
regime in Iraq and Saddam are weakening” (International
Herald Tribune 22/01/03).
Dissent in Labour party
Blair’s statement did little to quell dissenting
voices from his own party and a day later saw 44 Labour MPs
use a technical vote to show their opposition to military
action against Iraq without full backing of the UN. The vote
came after a long debate in the Commons that saw the defence
minister attacked from his own benches. Former Labour defence
minister Doug Henderson asked Hoon if “it would be better
for the government to listen to the public…and get back into
a containment strategy and if not go through the UN?”
Voices on Iraq
Sir Michael Quinlan,
the former Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Defence said
this week that war against Iraq was “an unnecessary and
precarious gamble”.
The writer Salman Rushdie was clear in his
support for a change of regime in Iraq, “if the US and the
UN agree on a new resolution, then the rest of the world must
stop sitting on its hands and join the Americans and British
in ridding the world of this vile despot and his cohorts”.
Major-General Patrick Cordingley
Desert Rats commander in the Gulf War said “I am absolutely
opposed to a war. We were absolutely determined (in 1991) that
war was just, that there was a clear UN resolution and that
was to free Kuwait”
Alan Bleasdale (UK playwright), “I just think, passionately, it is the wrong
war at the wrong time with the wrong ally and against the
wrong people”
US
Debates
The growing divide between the US & UK and other Security
Council members left its mark on much of the discussion in
Washington this week. The
visit
by UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw to his counterpart
Secretary of State Colin Powell saw denials from both
representatives that the US and the UK were increasing the
pace towards war in the face of international opposition.
Protests around the world, and most notably in
the Washington
and San Francisco, last weekend drew large numbers, as
people perceived a strong momentum towards conflict. These
protests – as well as polls showing a declining public
support for a war and a desire for UN-backing – contrasted
sharply with the declining patience for UN inspections and the
increasingly belligerent tones coming
from the White House.
National
Security Adviser Condoleeza
Rice has
been at the forefront representing
Administration views. "It
has been eleven weeks since the UN Resolution demanding that
Iraq disarm, and as of yet there has been no evidence of
voluntary disarmament.
With last week’s finding of twelve warheads there is
now a case for noncompliance.
It is now Iraq’s obligation to prove itself to arms
inspectors, and they should realize that time
is running out."
Brown-Kind
Congressional letter
120 Members of Congress have
signed a Congressional letter
to be sent today to President Bush. The letter, initiated
by Representatives Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Ron Kind, D-Wisc.,
Robert Wexler D-Fla., and LLoyd Doggett, D-Texas, urges that
the 'U.S. should make every attempt to achieve Iraq's
disarmament through diplomatic means and with the full
support of our allies, in accordance with the process
articulated in UN Security Council resolution 1441."
As part of an effort
organized through moveon.org,
hundreds of U.S. citizen advocates visited
Congressional offices throughout the country on 21
January, urging Members of Congress and Senators to
deliver the message of "let the inspections
work" to the President. 2004 Presidential
candidate, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., gave
a speech at Georgetown University yesterday where
he claimed that the Bush administration is on a
"rush to war" in Iraq that threatens U.S.
alliances around the world.
UN
ACTIVITIES
Inspections
Last weekend (18 and 19 January), Hans Blix and Mohamed
ElBaradei travelled to Baghdad to meet with Iraqi officials
and in the hope of resolving outstanding issues.
On Monday, an agreed
statement was released which noted that access had been
obtained to all sites, but that issues remained to be
clarified with the IAEA regarding equipment.
As the inspections moved into their final week before the 27
January report to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC),
the debate over the necessity of future inspections widened
the rift that already existed between the US and the UK on
one hand, and France and Germany on the other.
France and Germany, as well as Russia and China,
claimed that inspections should be given more time and that
war must be avoided. France has threatened the use of its
veto, and
Germany is reported to be considering using its UNSC
Presidential powers next month to tell UN inspectors they can
have two more weeks to finalise their report. Even British diplomats
envisage inspectors carrying on their work after 27 January.
In contrast, Colin
Powell insists inspections will not work. The
US and UK reaction to the report of the inspectors
to the UNSC thus has the potential not merely to determine the
course of future inspections but also to challenge the
credibility of the Security Council itself.
The
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has just published
a report on the progress of the inspections up to now, and
their prospects in the near future. It seeks to lay out what
the choices are for the international community on Monday when
Hans Blix reports to the Security Council.
Food
aid
The
Oil For Food Programme was set up through UN Resolution 986 in April
1995 and implemented in December the following year, a
temporary measure in the context of a sanctions regime.
Currently seventy-two percent of oil proceeds fund the
humanitarian programme and to date some $26 billion worth of
humanitarian equipment and supplies have been delivered to
Iraq. This
week, the Oil For Food Programme channeled $61 million in
overhead savings to humanitarian purchases in Iraq.
However,
the Programme is highly controversial because of its links
with the sanctions regime. A former Coordinator of the
Programme, Denis Halliday resigned in September 1998, saying,
"We are in the process of destroying an entire society.
It is as simple and terrifying as that. It is illegal and
immoral." (The Independent, 15th October 1998)
Miscellaneous
US
oil reserves maintained
Reports
suggest the US Strategic
Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has nearly 600 million barrels as
a hedge against shocks in supply, governed by global rules
over the use of countries' strategic stocks policed by the
International Energy Agency (IEA). US imports of oil from
Venezuela have dropped 1.2 million barrels per day, enabling
the US to draw on its reserves. However, US President Bush has
held off announcing a drawing on reserves, something he would
like to do to coincide with any invasion of Iraq. Many oil
market analysts charge that the administration will have
missed a chance to use the oil at a time of genuine need, for
political reasons.
Visit
to Iraq
A group of NGO representatives
and former UN officials earlier this month met with cabinet
ministers in Baghdad including Deputy Prime Minister Tariq
Aziz, Foreign Minister Nagi Sabri and Oil Minister Amer
Mohammed Rashid. They were also able to talk with doctors,
teachers and scientists, as well as meet ordinary Iraqis and
visit sites recently inspected for weapons of mass
destruction. The aim was to contribute to efforts to prevent
war and to gather information not available in the western
press, particularly with regard to the human situation.
Reports and associated documents are available on the Oxford
Research Group website.
UP-COMING
EVENTS
Jan 27: UN Security Council’s report on weapons inspections
due.
Jan 28: US State of the Union speech.
Jan 29: UN Security Council discusses report.
Jan 31: Bush and Blair will be meeting at Camp David.
Jan 31: Deadline for Pentagon report on coordination and
integration of all US non-proliferation activities.
Feb 3: Possible date for US annual budget.
Feb 15: Mass anti-war protests planned across Europe.
Mar 1: Hans Blix presents quarterly report
to UN Security Council
Mar 27: Blix sets out the steps Iraq must
take to disarm
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