www. iraqconflict. org

July 23, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

In a welcome development this week the UN special representative in Iraq , SergioVieira de Mello, presented a report to the UN Security Council calling for a clear timetable for the return of sovereignty to the Iraqi people.

As efforts to restore Iraqi society continue, questions surrounding the basis upon which the US and UK went to war refuse to go away. It is widely accepted that under international law it is legitimate to take military action against an adversary pre-emptively if one has certain knowledge that he is planning an imminent attack. What the US is now embracing, however, - exemplified by its action against Iraq - goes beyond a ‘pre-emptive’ doctrine to one that permits ‘anticipatory self-defence’ or, less euphemistically, ‘preventive war’.  Essentially, this means attacking another country on the presumption that it will become a serious threat at some time in the future.

Stephen Pullinger, Director ISIS

"I believe there's mid- level Ba'athist, Iraqi intelligence service people, Special Security Organization people, Special Republican Guard people that have organized at the regional level in cellular structure and are conducting what I would describe as a classical guerrilla-type campaign against us. It's low-intensity conflict, in our doctrinal terms, but it's war, however you describe it." Gen. John Abizaid, commander, U.S. Central Command.

“If we are wrong, we will have destroyed a threat that… is responsible for inhumane carnage and suffering.  That is something… history will forgive.” Prime Minister Tony Blair, speaking to Congress.

“The troops were trying to work with actionable intelligence... You might make the same mistake.” Senior Adviser to the Pentagon in response to questions over an attack on vehicles and border guards in Syria.

"Based on my experience with the Administration in the months leading up to the war, I have little choice but to conclude that some of the intelligence related to Iraq's nuclear weapons program was twisted to exaggerate the Iraqi threat.” - Joseph Wilson, envoy hired by the CIA to investigate allegations that Iraq's President Saddam Hussein obtained uranium from Niger.

“I think he is in Iraq, and the sooner we can either kill him or capture him, the better." – Paul Bremer, US Civil Administrator in Iraq, on Saddam Hussein.

"I can see that the American soldiers are free. In our old army, we were always under pressure and strict military orders. There was tough punishment". Raad Mamoud, a former Iraqi enlisted soldier.

"Our sense is that the military has too much on their plate right now, and that these are issues that need to be addressed, and the way to do that is through the private sector," Anne Tiedemann, executive of Kroll Inc, in negotiations to train former Iraqi soldiers to become security guards and police.

“The nations we need as partners are unwilling to join forces with us under unilateral American command. NATO command is the answer; as we saw in Kosovo, it works.” US Senator Joseph Lieberman (Democrat from Connecticut).

“The Iraq crisis has, of course, had the effect of weakening the transatlantic link; we therefore need to put that critical phase behind us and re-establish the traditional special relationship with Washington."  Italian Prime Minister and current EU President Silvio Berlusconi.

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

New ‘council’ in Iraq

July 13 saw the inaugural meeting of Iraq’s new governing council, a 25-member body appointed by officials from the US and UK. The composition of the council, set up to give Iraqis more say in the post-war formation of a new Iraq, roughly reflects the ethnic and religious make-up of Iraq. Of the 25 members 13 are drawn from Iraq's Shia majority, five Kurds, five Sunni Muslims and three are women. The council will have power to appoint ministers, decide on policy and draft the new Iraqi constitution although the US chief administrator, Paul Bremer, will have the power to overrule decisions. Bremer sees the council as part of the path towards full democracy for Iraq, and one of their first decisions has been to set up a war crimes court to try Saddam Hussein and leaders of the Baath party. (FT 16/07, The Times 16/07) 

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan endorsed the new council on July 18. The UN's special representative to Iraq, Sergio Vieira de Mello, recommended that the UN Security Council follow this endorsement when he reported to them on July 22, but also underlined the strong desire within Iraq for an end to occupation and a move towards genuine democracy at an early stage. Three members of the new Governing Council of Iraq also addressed the Security Council as independent experts, despite protests that they were unrepresentative. Permanent members of the Security Council supported the report, emphasising the role of the UN and pointing out that although reconstruction would take time, there was no time to lose in introducing democracy to Iraq.

Signs of opposition in Iraq

Frustration with the US/UK occupation is rising amongst many in the Iraqi communities. A demonstration of 10,000 Shi'as in Al-Najaf on July 20 shows disaffection amongst Iraqis not loyal to Saddam. US forces were forced to fix bayonets. The demonstrations were in support of the outspoken cleric, Sadr, who had strongly criticized the occupation when leading prayers the previous Friday. Opposition is fired by many of the activities of US troops, perceived to be aggressive in their response to opposition and in their search for Saddam. Extensive looting continues throughout Iraq. The country's only secure mental hospital was recently ransacked. 

At a July 16 Pentagon briefing by General John Abizaid, the US chief of military operations in Iraq declared that signs are that US forces are facing an extended guerilla war. 'Coalition' troops have now lost more lives in this conflict than in the 1991 conflict. 

Initiatives to relieve US forces

Uday and Qusay Hussein, Saddam's notorious sons, are reported killed by US troops in a fire-fight in Mosul, northern Iraq. This could be a significant boost to the US morale, that has recently been receiving a battering. With regular losses, costs of $3.9 billion a month (Pentagon estimates, New York Times, 11/7/03), and lengthening tours of duty, the morale of US troops and their families has been falling. Consequently, and because of the clear need for an extended involvement, Secretary of State Colin Powell is reconsidering the US decision not to involve the UN in stabilization forces. The multinational force from 30 countries (not including the UK) that the UN has committed to date involves only 9,200 troops, leaving the US exposed. With so many nations involved, yet so few troops, coordination and logistics become complicated. Along with several other key countries, India recently joined France and Germany in deciding against sending 17,000 troops without a UN mandate. Countries have been unwilling to commit further resources to an enterprise so heavily controlled by the US. This has also had an impact on discussions in Washington over the size of the military, and a statement from Donald Rumsfeld on July 13 that the United States may need to send more troops to Iraq. (New York Times, 14/07/03). There are at present 148,000 US troops and 13,000 'coalition'.

CentCom commander General John Abizaid has said that he is hoping to establish a one-year tour of duty in Iraq and to ensure that those troops that have been there the longest will be the first to go home.  This would be the US Army's 15,000-person Third Mechanized Infantry Division, which spearheaded the 19-day drive to Baghdad. One brigade of that division has been in Kuwait and Iraq for nearly a year. (Philadelphia Inquirer, 20/7/03)

Pressure on troop numbers has increased following the UN request for the urgent assistance of US troops to quell the intensified fighting in Liberia. The US has confirmed that 4,500 troops are heading for the Mediterranean ahead of a possible intervention and that it is in communication with ECOWAS who are planning to send a 1,500 strong peacekeeping force. (FT 22/07) In addition, the EU’s first peacekeeping mission is underway in the Congo and it is currently considering troop deployment to Moldova (European Voice 17-23 July)

UN role

A US House Government Reform subcommittee has heard testimony from aid workers, who stated that the threat to international workers in Iraq is growing. Aid workers claim that their association with the US military is compromising their safety and believe a strong UN presence on the ground in Iraq is urgently needed. However, the UN does not expect to make any further appeals for humanitarian aid for Iraq. The UN has already appealed for $259 million to fund its operations until the end of this year, during which time it hopes to deal with the most pressing humanitarian issues. However, UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Kenzo Oshima, stated that the coalition forces should bear the main responsibility for the welfare of Iraq’s citizens as the occupying force.

EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten has said the EU may be ready to help with the rebuilding of Iraq, but via a fund controlled by the World Bank and UN rather than coalition forces.  At a meeting of foreign ministers the proposal was accepted, although some member states felt that such a move required a new Security Council resolution. EU teams will be sent to Iraq to assess needs before the Commission  presents its proposals to ministers again in September, ahead of an international donor conference in October.

Iraqi soldiers to be mobilised?

In an effort to relieve American soldiers and to meet demands of the new Iraqi Governing Council, during the next two months the United States will lead the creation of a new Iraqi civil defence force that will be composed of 7,000 US-trained Iraqi militia men to take the place of US troops that are guarding power plants and ammunition depots. The US risk analysis firm, Kroll Inc, is in negotiations with the US Government over how a new security force would be vetted and governed.  Although the Coalition Provisional Authority demobilised the entire Iraqi army at the end of the war they are now planning to rehire the the re-hiring of some soldiers as a means of freeing up coalition forces from guard duties and making the police force look ‘more Iraqi’.

Health

Oil-for-food projects underway

International Legal Dimension

UNICEF: Cluster bombs continue to kill children

US treatment of suspected terrorists

Tony Blair has received an assurance from President Bush that the two British detainees scheduled for the first of the tribunals will have their cases postponed. The UK Attorney-General, Lord Goldsmith, while visiting the US in the hope of reaching a solution, and has received a guarantee that the two British prisoners will not face the death penalty, even if found guilty. However, in an interview during his Far East tour, Mr Blair has suggested that he will not be pushing for these two mens' extradition to Britain, despite fears that the military tribunals will be biased stoked by President Bush’s earlier reference to the Guantanamo prisoners as “bad people”.  Blair stated that ‘national security’ issues will have to be considered and The Times reports Ministers’ fears that a trial in Britain could become a target for terrorists.

Iraq Tribunal

Amnesty International is visiting Iraq this week to investigate crimes committed by Sadaam Hussein’s regime and the mistreatment of Iraqis in US prison camps, such as the detention center at Baghdad Airport, where two escapees have been shot dead.  Amnesty has been refused entrance to this camp. (The Independent 22/07/ 03)

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

War against terrorism takes another hit with Syria

Further information on a US raid into Syria on June 18, apparently in an effort to prevent the escape of senior Iraqi officials into Syria, suggests that up to 80 people in the vehicles and residents living nearby were killed, and that the vehicles, moving in defiance of a curfew, were in fact smuggling gasoline. Syrian border guards were attacked, imprisoned and interrogated before being released.

After September 11 2001 Syria had been instrumental in preventing several terrorist attacks through its intelligence cooperation with the CIA. But since the outbreak of the war in Iraq and the ascendancy of the leadership in the Department of Defense, the CIA liaison relationship with the Syrians has largely broken down.

UK and EU positions on Iran

Foreign intervention in Iraq

US Deputy Defence Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, warned foreigners not to interfere in Iraq’s internal affairs.  Speaking at a press conference in Northern Iraq, he echoed previous US administration warnings that intervention by neighbouring countries would not be tolerated. President Bush issued a similar warning in Crawford, Texas, at a press conference with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi during which he accused Iran and Syria of harbouring terrorists.  White House Spokesman, Scott McClellan, claims that President Bush raised the issue as a reminder that the war on terrorism is continuing. 

US – Turkey rift healing?

POLITICAL DEBATES

David Kelly investigation

Tony Blair has agreed to hold a full independent judicial inquiry, headed by Lord Hutton into the events which led to the death of Dr David Kelly, a Ministry of Defence advisor on biological weapons.  Dr Kelly had recently given evidence to the Foreign Affairs select committee investigation into the reasons the UK went to war in Iraq and was questioned as to whether or not he had informed a BBC journalist, Andrew Gilligan that intelligence information had been manipulated by the government  to increase their case for going to war. Although Dr Kelly told the Foreign Affairs Select Committee that he did not believe that he was Mr Gilligan’s main source, since the reports did not reflect his conversation, the BBC has since acknowledged that Dr Kelly was the informant who provided Mr Gilligan with his information.

European premiers visit Washington

Italian Prime Minister and current EU President Silvio Berlusconi, is visiting the US. One of the aims of his Presidency is to rebuild EU-US relations “The Iraq crisis has, of course, had the effect of weakening the transatlantic link; we therefore need to put that critical phase behind us and re-establish the traditional special relationship with Washington."

Also on a visit to the US, German Foreign minister Joschka Fischer stated that although the EU and US must work together to rebuild Iraq, a new UN resolution would be necessary before Germany would consider sending troops.  He also added that Germany would still be unlikely to commit troops due to capacity issues.

Prime Minister Blair visited Washington on July 17, and along with President Bush, fielded numerous questions about the doubts arising over intelligence evidence that Britain and the United States used to justify their war in Iraq. 

Washington: WMD search/INTEL

The CIA acknowledged on July 7 that Bush should not have claimed in his January State of the Union address that Iraq had sought to buy uranium in Africa to reconstitute its nuclear weapons programme. (Washington Post, 8/07/03)  However, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice insisted that US doubts did not reach high enough levels to influence the Bush Administration’s decisions to cite the evidence in time for the State of the Union address. 

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) produced in October 2002 and entirely classified at the time contained an annex in which the State Department's intelligence arm (INR) noted that, "(T)he claims of Iraqi pursuit of natural uranium in Africa are, in INR's assessment, highly dubious." The allegation that Iraq sought uranium in Africa was in the main portion of the report but was not one of the report's "key judgments." Apparently, neither Bush nor Rice had read this part of the report. (Washington Post, 19/07/02)

Ambassador Joseph Wilson, former envoy to Gabon in Africa, identified himself in a New York Times op-ed on July 6 as the person the CIA dispatched to Africa in February 2002 to determine the truth about reports that Iraq had tried to buy uranium from Niger.  Wilson concluded "that it was highly doubtful that any such transaction had ever taken place". 

Much of the debate recently in the US Congress centered on the Bush Administration’s credibility and its use of intelligence on Iraq as justification for the war. Amendments to the Fiscal Year 2004 Defense Appropriations Bill were debated, which would have established an independent commission to analyze intelligence information on Iraq, and forced the Administration to include costs for the occupation in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget.

The amendment to establish a 12-person National Commission on the Development and Use of Intelligence Related to Iraq, tabled on July 16, would have been tasked with investigating whether Iraq had WMD and had the delivery systems for such weapons, and whether Iraq had tried to acquire uranium in Africa, had links to Al-Qaeda, possessed mobile laboratories for the production of WMD, and whether Iraq tried to procure aluminum tubes for the development of nuclear weapons.

Declassified portions of the still-secret National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released on July 18 by the White House show that intelligence services believed Saddam was much more likely to give weapons to Al-Qaeda terrorists if he were facing death or capture and his government were collapsing after a military attack by the United States. (Washington Post, 21/07/03)

LATEST POLL RESULTS

The Spectator and Channel 4 commissioned YouGov poll (July 16) was the first to survey inside Baghdad since the start of the conflict.  The results from the 798 people surveyed revealed that 50% believed the US and Britain were right to wage war against Saddam and the regime, while 27% thought it was wrong and 23% did not state an opinion.

However, they were cynical about the coalition’s motivations. Opinion in Baghdad thought the threat from WMD was the least important of five possible reasons for US/UK intervention presented to them, polling only 6%.  “To secure oil supplies” scored highest with 47% followed closely by “to help Israel”, 41%.  While 23% viewed the aim was “to liberate Iraq”, only 7% thought it was “to protect Kuwait”.

UK loses faith in war and Blair

A Populus poll in Britain revealed a decline in the number of people who believe that it was right to go to war — from a peak of 64% in April, down to 47% now. The number saying it was wrong has risen sharply to 45%, up from 24% in April. The Populus survey found that more than half of voters “would not trust the Prime Minister further than they could throw him and that people no longer regard him as more honest than most politicians.” Both Iain Duncan Smith and Charles Kennedy were rated more highly on trust and honesty. (”Voters Losing Faith In Blair Over Iraq War,” London Times, 8/7/03)

US support also down

According to a Zogby International poll released on July 18, US support for the Iraq war has declined. When asked whether they would support the US-led war in Iraq if it had to be done again, 59% said they would support such a war (down from 75% in April). 75% said the failure to find weapons of mass destruction will not make a difference to their vote. 52% of the respondents said public hearings should not be held.  More respondents placed the blame on the CIA (36%) than the White House (31%) as “responsible for the confusion about the number and types of weapons of mass destruction Iraq supposedly possessed". Opinion on whether WMD will be found in Iraq is nearly equally split, with 47% believing that they will not be discovered and 45% believing they will. Bush’s job performance rating has slipped to its lowest level (53 percent) since September 11 2001. A CBS News poll (July 8-9), showed opinion is equally divided at 46%, on whether or not the war against Iraq was worth the loss of American lives and other costs, if no WMD are ever discovered.  This compared to May, when 56% believed it was worth it and 38% believed it was not. In a similar poll conducted by CNN and TIME released on July 20, 55% said Bush was doing a “good job” of handling the situation in Iraq, versus 69% in May. A poll released on 8 July by the Pew Research Center found that those who think the Iraq intervention is going very well slipped to 23%, down from 61% in April.

A Newsweek poll (July 10-11) in the US and an ICM poll (July 12) in the UK, showed similarities in both American and British public opinion on whether or not the Bush administration or the Labour government had mislead their respective publics, either knowingly or unknowingly, regarding the issue of prohibited weapons believed to be in Iraq’s possession.  38% polled in the US believed that they had been “purposely misled” and 27% in the UK. A higher proportion of people, 45% polled in the US believed the intelligence reports had been misinterpreted or miss-analysed, and were not deliberately misleading.  The same was reflected in the UK where it was 39%. 

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