www.iraqconflict.org

May 23, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

The passing yesterday of the UN Security Council resolution has belatedly given much needed legality to the role of coalition forces in rebuilding Iraq. Importantly it starts to give the UN a bigger role in Iraq’s future but much more needs to be done to strengthen this. Hopefully it will also be a step towards healing the rift between the US and Europe.

However, many serious challenges remain. Security is still a paramount concern. The rise in lawlessness and continued looting show that stability is still some way off. Two hundred and forty two people have died in Baghdad alone since the end of the conflict, the vast majority from gunshot wounds. This is a stark reminder of the insecurity and humanitarian cost of the vast numbers of small arms in circulation in Iraqi society.

In a welcome move, the new Chief Administrator, Paul Bremer, this week ordered soldiers to seize weapons from civilians and ban the markets that have sprung up in Baghdad selling arms. But much more comprehensive measures are needed.

Paul Eavis, Director Saferworld

“Iraqis must be responsible for their own destiny; they must be in charge of their own political future and also their own economic [future], and be responsible for their natural resources.” Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General

“We've come to the end of a little era in United Nations' business with the passage of 1483.” Jeremy Greenstock, UK Ambassador to the UN

"We don't want to be in places where we are not wanted." Paul Wolfowitz on the closure of the US base at Incirlik, Turkey.

“It’s not crucially important.” Jack Straw, about the prospect for finding WMD in Iraq.

“It is likely to be difficult to justify the legality of the continued occupation of Iraq once the disarmament requirements of the relevant Security Council resolutions have been completed.” UK Attorney General Lord Goldsmith questions the legality of post war occupation in a leaked memo to the Prime Minister dated March 26.

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Paul Bremer

The chief allied administrator for Iraq was hand-picked by President Bush, confident that he would represent the views of Washington. Paul Bremer was Director of US State Department's Counter-Terrorism bureau and Ambassador at Large for Counterterrorism under President Reagan. More recently he headed up the National Commission on Terrorism after advising on the establishment of a homeland security office before September 11, 2001. Former Managing Director of Kissinger Associates and author of the Heritage Foundation’s 2003 report, ‘Defending America’s Homeland’, he is seen as being from the right wing of the Republican movement.

Bremer's appointment arose out of frustration at the lack of progress in bringing Iraq under the control of coalition forces. With his focus always having been on counter-terrorism, it suggests that Washington’s priorities for Iraq lie in countering violent opposition to occupation. 

Iraqi Army disbanded with one month's pay

Bremer has abolished the Iraqi Army, Security Service, Defence and Information Ministries overnight, it was announced on May 23. The move effectively makes 400,000 Iraqis unemployed and is designed to draw a line under Saddam Hussein’s regime. Soldiers will be given just one month’s pay upon leaving and anyone above the rank of Colonel will not be entitled to any severance package or be able to work in the new defence force or government.

The week before, on May 15, Bremer announced the exclusion of a whole swath of administrators and technocrats from any role in new Iraqi government structures. In a break with previous engagement policies, Ba'ath Party members were banned from involvement. He declared that the US "will work with the Iraqis to set up a process of bringing Ba'athist officials to justice for their past crimes".

Iraqis forced to hand over weapons

Bremer has issued orders to force Iraqi citizens to hand over weapons in an attempt to combat lawlessness and mounting casualties from shootings. A report on May 16 put the death toll in the previous three weeks in the capital at 242, almost all from bullet wounds. Iraqis will still be able to keep weapons at home for protection but anyone found in public with a weapon will have it confiscated.

Foreign firms gain access to Iraq contracts

Non-US firms appear to have finally gained access to lucrative contracts to rebuild Iraq following the war. On May 23 the British Trade and Industry Minister, Patricia Hewitt, hosted construction firms in London for a video-link conference with USAID. Hewitt also announced that she would lead a delegation to Baghdad in June to promote British industry. (Financial Times, 22/05/03)

Also in London on the same day, firms met to discuss sub-contracts with Bechtel, the US prime contractor with a $680 million deal to manage initial reconstruction of Iraq. Bechtel was also wooing sub-contractors in a meeting in Washington on May 21, and will hold another meeting in Kuwait on May 28.

US to scrutinise Iraq contracts

Following criticism from Democrats in the US over links between firms awarded Iraq contracts and senior government figures, two bodies have been brought in to scrutinise reconstruction contracts. USAID, the body that awards the Iraq contracts, and the US Inspector General’s office will both look at contracts after Democrats questioned Bechtel’s award of a $680 million contract to rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure. Bechtel has been a large donor to the Republican Party, whilst Halliburton, another US company awarded a large contract, has close ties with the Vice President, Dick Cheney.

International Legal Dimension

War crimes accusations against British Colonel

Accusations against Col Tim Collins have been widely reported. US troops under his control have accused him of breaking the Geneva Convention in pistol-whipping an Iraqi civil leader, shooting at the feet of Iraqi civilians and beating Iraqi POWs. The army’s Special Investigations Branch is now investigating the situation, but Tim Collins was reported as being “astonished”. Some have suggested the accusations are a result of underlying conflict between British and US personnel. British soldiers have compared the Collins' actions with the shooting of unarmed Iraqi demonstrators by US soldiers. Col Collins is reported to have criticised US forces under his control before their complaints for their over-aggressive attitude towards Iraqis. Col Collins had achieved fame earlier for a widely-acclaimed speech to his troops before battle.

Law-suit threatens NATO meetings

A group of Iraqis filed a law-suit in Brussels on May 14 against Tommy Franks, US Commander in Chief of coalition forces, accusing him of responsibility for war crimes committed by his forces. These include the alleged use of cluster bombs against civilians and firing on ambulances suspected of being used by Iraqi military forces. Belgium has a ‘universal competence’ law which enables actions to be brought in Belgium courts whereever the alleged crimes are committed. 

Soon after the case was filed US Joint Chief of Staff Richard Myers said that the US government was taking the threat seriously and was considering its position with regards to US staff in NATO Headquarters in Brussels. US and Belgian government officials described the suit as "ludicrous" and "politically motivated". The Belgian government has now handed the case to US prosecutors, under a recent amendment to the universal competence legislation allowing cases to be tried in ‘home’ countries where courts have competence.

Mass graves

It looks likely that there will be many more mass graves discovered in Iraq. A high-profile visit by Paul Bremer (US head of reconstruction) to the graves was designed to reinforce the message that regime change had been necessary. Criticism of the occupying forces’ failure to protect evidence of crimes against humanity continue. Other critics have been quick to point out that the graves are legacies of the 1991 post-Gulf War uprisings that were encouraged by the first President Bush but who then failed to prevent the ruthless Iraqi suppression.

Search for WMD will be scaled back soon

In a softening of its stance, there were indications that the Bush administration was preparing to accept the return of UN weapons inspectors in Iraq.  Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld was quoted as saying that the Pentagon had “no problem with” the inspectors' return.  This comment was made particularly with respect to the return of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the site of the Tuwaitha reactor from which, it is feared, up to 20% of the nuclear materials stored there may have gone missing (Associated Press). A series of reports appearing in the Los Angeles Times suggest that there has been a significant release of radiation caused by the looting of Tuwaitha. The health and environmental impacts add to the proliferation concerns.

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

Pan-Arab nationalism

With the collapse of the Iraqi state, there are signs of a revival of Arab nationalism. The spectre of Saddam Hussein had divided Arab nations, fearful of their individual national security, but now the threat has passed there are greater possibilities of cooperation, especially in the conflict with Israel. US accusations that Syria is harbouring members of the regime, developing chemical weapons and funding Hizbullah illustrate increasing concern, but they also push Syria into the vanguard of Arab opposition to Israeli and US engagement in the region.

al Qaida

The bombing of a Western compound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia which took place on May 12 killed 34 people and has raised fears of a revival of al Qaida, despite reassurances that the war against Iraq would further debilitate that organisation’s ability to carry out attacks.  In response, the US and UK closed their embassies in Saudi Arabia.  In addition, the US has once again, on May 20, increased its terror-alert to orange (high) reflecting fears that the attacks in Saudi Arabia may occur not only overseas, but also within the US itself. Some US Democrats have pointed to the attacks as indication that the war on Iraq has been a major distraction to the war on terror, and may have exacerbated the terrorist threat.

Punishment for Turkey

US military closed the Incirlik base on May 1, the largest US base in southern Turkey. Turkey did not allow US forces to use the base in March after the Turkish Parliament voted to obstruct US forces from using Turkey as a staging post for the war. With the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the promise of established military bases in Iraq, the US Administration appears unwilling to continue its perceived compromises with Turkey. Washington has blocked any Turkish involvement in the multinational stabilization force and is also putting pressure on Turkey to withdraw its 3,000-strong military force in northern Iraq. (Defense News, 19/05/03)

Road map

The Middle East 'road map' remains stalled.  In light of a series of recent suicide bombings in Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon postponed a planned trip to Washington.  In an attempt to save the faltering road map the Bush administration is seeking to arrange meetings between Bush, Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas.

Qatar comes out on top

Qatar has chosen to strengthen its relationship with the US, hosting its major military presence in the region and opening negotiations for major new arms contracts. Qatar is looking to purchase main battle tanks and aircraft. Arms companies are already expecting to cash in on the war with new contracts. Meanwhile, Washington is punishing Chinese firms linked to the transfer of military equipment to Iran, and threatened further action against the Chinese government.

POLITICAL DEBATES

Security Council resolution 

After a great deal of debate, negotiations and several drafts, the UN Security Council (UNSC) adopted a resolution on immediate post-war arrangements for Iraq.  The resolution, which lifted the sanctions applied to Iraq twelve years ago, passed with a vote of 14-0, with Syria not appearing in the Council to vote.  The near-unanimity did not indicate shared levels of acceptance of all aspects of the resolution itself, although it was generally considered a significant improvement over preceding drafts and a welcome first step on the road to renewed UNSC cooperation.

The opposition to the initial versions of the draft resolution resulted primarily from French, German and Russian unease with the limited political role afforded to the UN in the reconstruction of Iraq.  In light of these concerns, the final draft of the resolution increased this role, asserting in the preamble that the UN was to play “a vital role in humanitarian relief, the reconstruction of Iraq, and the restoration and establishment of national and local institutions for representative government.”  It further made provisions for a UN Special Representative for Iraq (a higher status title than that of the “Special Coordinator” proposed in earlier drafts) and for the return of UN weapons inspectors.  Also as a consequence of these negotiations, the preambular paragraphs contained two new lines stating, “that other States that are not occupying powers are working now or in the future may work under this Authority” (the occupying powers under unified command).  The Oil-for-Food programme is to be concluded over a period of six months, rather than the four initially proposed.

Criticism in Congress

Criticism of the coalition’s actions continue in the US Congress. Senators from both parties on the Foreign Relations Committee sharply criticised Paul Wolfowitz for secrecy and lack of preparedness in post-war reconstruction. They also accused the Pentagon of failing to warn the US people that reconstruction would take years and far more resources than they had originally implied. There have also been calls in Congress for an increase in troop numbers to restore order in the country (Defense News, 19/05/03)

CIA review

Straw throws reason for war into doubt

In a radio interview on May 14 the British Foreign Minister Jack Straw threw the legal and political basis for war in Iraq into doubt by claiming that uncovering Iraq’s WMD was not “crucially important”. In the BBC interview Straw claimed that evidence of Iraq’s WMD was strong enough on November 8 when the UN Security Council unanimously decided Iraq was a “threat to international peace and security”.

UK Attorney General questions legality of occupation

A leaked memo from the UK Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, to the Prime Minister dated March 26 has cast doubt on the legality of the UK and US occupation of Iraq without a mandate from the UN. The memo, which was circulated to key officials in the UK government, caused enough concern in the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign Office for officials to press Blair to engage with the US on a 'memorandum of understanding' on the issue of a post-war Iraq. (New Statesman, May 22)

Short resigns over post war Iraq

LATEST POLL RESULTS

Support for Bush tactics

The situation in Iraq having fallen off the agenda of much of the mainstream media, opinion polls – once ubiquitous – are now thin on the ground.  However, strong support for the reconstruction agenda of the Bush administration appears to be holding up.  A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, conducted May 20-21, demonstrated an 80% approval rating for the American military’s handling of post-war Iraq.  Interestingly, an earlier Fox News poll, conducted May 6-7 indicated surprise that the war in Iraq had not, thus far, resulted in terrorist attacks on American soil.  The same poll indicated that 70% of those polled favoured taking military action against the home country of terrorists who carry out attacks on US soil.

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