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June 20, 2003
CONTENTS
EDITORIAL
The
jury is still out as to how important the failure to find
weapons of mass destruction is to the political future of Tony
Blair and George W. Bush. The President would do well not to
rely upon a false sense of security with US opinion polls that
may suggest he can ignore the question; his closest ally has
no such luxury. And growing cynicism in Europe about
proclamations over WMD may already reduce his ability to round
up a posse of supporters behind his Administration’s sabre-rattling
with Iran.
Meanwhile,
media attention on the situation in Iraq, perhaps surprisingly
sustained over the last two months, is beginning to ebb. Yet
many reports suggest the situation could actually be
deteriorating rather than improving for Iraqis in some areas.
While most Iraqis were undoubtedly happy to see the back of
Saddam Hussein, the US/UK occupying forces are seen as an
obstacle to progress by a growing and significant minority.
Hence
Wolfowitz’s ‘aggressive recruitment’ of 20,000 troops
from another dozen countries to multinationalise the forces.
But these troops will still be seen as servants of the United
States unless they can receive the official seal of approval
from the United Nations. Baghdad is the new battleground in
the conflict between the US neo-conservatives and the UN. The
consequences will reverberate well beyond Iraq’s borders.
Dr.
Ian Davis, BASIC, Washington DC
Saferworld
and Basic have written a detailed analysis
(pdf), on the decision to go to war.
QUOTES
OF THE WEEK
"This
is the single most chaotic organisation I have ever worked
for”, a senior British official
of the US-led Administration in Iraq quoted by Peter Foster in
the Daily Telegraph.
"If
they don't give us freedom, what will we do? We have patience,
but not for a long time." Asad
Sultan Abu Gilal, the expected victor in Najaf’s
mayoral election that was stopped by L. Paul Bremer.
“I
presume that he saw it as an honourable deception.” Claire
Short, former British International Development Minister on
her revelation that Blair had decided to go to war in Iraq.
"Give
the French a sector. Kiss and make up... Go to the Arab
League. I mean, [do something] to dramatically increase the
number of resources, the sense that this is multinational,
that it's not just U.S." Rep. Victor
F. Snyder (D-Ark.) to Paul Wolfowitz.
"Occupation
takes a lot of folks, probably takes a lot more folks than
winning the war." R Duncan
Hunter (R-Ca),
Chair of the House Armed Services Committee.
“Classical
diplomacy and meaningful international negotiation have
virtually disappeared as agents of global change and
leadership. The Bush administration's war on terrorism has led
to a significant militarization of U.S. foreign policy that
has become the dominant force in world affairs.” Jim
Hoagland, Washington Post
Post-Conflict
Reconstruction
Democracy
on hold
Paul
Bremer, head of the American military occupation, has halted
the preparations for local elections in Najaf and ordered the
arrest of Iraqis inciting opposition to the US occupation,
over-ruling local US commanders overseeing the electoral
process who appeared content that the town was ready for
elections. In a surprising
admission that indicates likely US attitudes to
democratisation in Iraq, a senior official in his office
commented, “the most organized political groups
in many areas are rejectionists, extremists and remnants of
the Baathists." Reports
suggest that this has angered many Iraqis who accuse Mr Bremer
of holding back democracy and applying double standards. There
have been demonstrations of well over 1,000 people in Najaf
against the suspension of elections. The likely winner of the
election was a long-time opponent of Saddam Hussein.
British
interpretation more flexible
British
forces in Basra act under the direction of the US
administration in Iraq, but have been interpreting the
instructions with some flexibility. They are paying
former Iraqi military personnel and civil servants, many of
them of the Ba’ath Party, as a form of social security and
in a ‘hearts-and-minds’ campaign. The
decision to demobilise the army was taken as part of the
‘de-baathification’ process, but is now seen as
part of the problem of growing unrest in Iraq.
Bremer
has denied there is any strategic difference between US and UK
administration in Iraq. His comments were in response to a
report in The Telegraph of a senior British official who
said "The
operation is chronically under-resourced and suffers from an
almost complete absence of strategic direction." There
were only 600 officials in the reconstruction authority, with
much Iraqi infrastructure completely unoperational.
US
post-war death toll rises
Iraqi attacks on the US presence in Iraq have
gathered in frequency as anger grows at the lack of
progress in handing over power. US
deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, told the House Armed
Services Committee on June 16 about a “guerrilla war
there” in Iraq. His comments came on the same
day the fifty-third US soldier to die since George Bush
announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq on May 1.
The US forces have also moved to stop the Iraqi
press from inciting violence against coalition forces in a
move to stem the tide of attacks on US personnel. The fighting
in Iraq and the lack of security has led to the British
International Development Minister, Baroness Amos, to cancel a
proposed trip to Baghdad (FT 18/06/03)
Failure
to find Saddam breeds mistrust
On
June 16 Major
General Freddy Viggers, British Commander in Baghdad, claimed
that unless Saddam Hussein is found or killed the Iraqi people
will require a
‘Balkans’ style coalition police force for years to
come to protect Iraqi’s from a potential Baathist
resurgence. The failure of a recent weapons
amnesty in Baghdad highlights the lack of trust between
the occupying forces and the Iraqi people. The amnesty was
followed by raids
from US forces to forcibly remove weapons from Iraqis. US forces are
now allowing Iraqis a rifle and a handgun each if kept at
home to defend their homes, and licenses are handed out with
the minimum of bureaucracy.
Oil
starts to flow again
It
is planned
to begin exporting Iraqi oil again on June 22. However,
because of widespread looting and the damage during the war,
Iraq is unlikely to be producing more than one million barrels
a day by mid-July, well below the original target of 1.5m a
day and the production before the war of 2.5m a day.
Reconstruction
current account reaches $7billion
Raymond
DuBois, a member of the Defense Department’s Iraq policy
group claimed
this week that Paul Bremer had access to funds for
reconstruction from a variety of sources including: $3.1 bn
directly from Congress, a further £1 bn downpayment against
future revenues from the UN Oil-for-food programme, and around
$3 bn in former Iraqi funds confiscated by the US government.
The occupation is set to cost the US at least $3 billion a
month well into next year, requiring a supplemental funding
request in the near future.
Half of Brechtel contract to go to Iraqi firms?
Andrew
Natsios, administrator for USAID,
has said that “At least half of the $680 million (Brechtel
reconstruction contract) will go to Iraqi companies, with
Iraqi employees”. Natsios was speaking at a conference of
Iraqi businessmen in Basra on June 19 aimed at registering
Iraqi businesses for potential subcontracts in the rebuilding
process, although many of the companies are
not capable of meeting USAID’s requirements without
going into partnership with foreign firms.
Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) at record levels in Iraq
According
to
ICRC's regional ERW advisor, the situation
regarding ERW in Iraq is the worst he has seen in over 15
countries where he has worked.
International
Legal Dimension
Human
Rights Watch report on Al-Falluja
US
forces continue to experience firm political resistance to
their presence in Iraq. The US response has been
controversial, the most violent being at Al-Falluja on April
28 when forces from 82nd Airborne Division opened
fire on protesters, killing seventeen and wounding more than
seventy. Two days later US forces opened fire on another
demonstration, killing two and injuring sixteen. In a
report investigating these incidents, Human Rights Watch
questions US claims that its forces had come under sustained
fire from within the crowd, and suggests that attacks on US
forces since then are partly a reaction to these events. It is
possible that shots had been fired from the crowd, though this
was contrary to Iraqi witnesses and ballistics evidence. HRW
is critical of US strategy to place combat soldiers fresh from
battle in law-enforcement situations. Incidents
continue, with two Iraqi demonstrators shot
by US soldiers in Baghdad on June 18 after stones were thrown.
HRW
have also criticised the British forces’ failure to impose
order in Basra in a
report published earlier in June.
UN
Secretary General refuses to endorse reconstruction
Paul
Wolfowitz, giving evidence to the House Armed Services
Committee on June 18, said
that the US was aggressively recruiting dozens of countries to
contribute forces for peacekeeping and reconstruction duties.
Kofi Annan, in a clear indication of disapproval of such
developments, has refused
to give his support to the possible involvement of Indian
troops in the US-UK stabilisation force. UN efforts to secure
greater involvement have been rebuffed, and the
Secretary-General is unwilling to support the precedence of a
multinational force without UN sanction. The Indian government
has yet to decide on its involvement, particularly as
Washington has refused to pay for any contribution. There are
now forces from eight other countries in Iraq, according to
the Pentagon.
Regional
and Strategic CONTEXT
Jordanian
election returns secular government
In Jordan’s first elections since 1997, candidates
close to the royal family won
a majority in nationwide elections for the lower house of
Parliament, while the main Islamist opposition party hinted at
electoral fraud.
Bush
steps up rhetoric against Iran
President
Bush, speaking on June 18, said that the US and other world
leaders would “not
tolerate” Iran pursuing a nuclear weapons programme. The
IAEA are currently inspecting Iran’s nuclear facilities.
June 18 saw people in Paris and London set
fire to themselves in protest at the Iranian government
cutting off relations with former Iraq based terror group, the
Mujahideen.
Over 100 people in Paris were subsequently arrested.
EU
agrees preventive WMD policy
June
17 saw EU foreign ministers agree
on a "Strategy against proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction". The agreement allows for EU
states to take “coercive measures” to enforce
the UN charter to prevent the proliferation of WMD, but only
after diplomatic and economic measures have been exhausted.
The agreement aims to prevent a repeat of the splits in
European unity seen in the build-up to invasion of Iraq.
Musharraf calls for more Afghan
peacekeepers
Pervez Musharraf,
Pakistan’s President, has
called for an increase in peace keeping forces in
Afghanistan to prevent warlords outside of Kabul taking
control of the country from the interim government. There are
presently only 14,000 UN and US troops in Afghanistan, mainly
based in Kabul, and Musharraf has said a force of 40,000
troops are needed to effectively police the whole country. He
concluded by saying that the vacuum caused by just deploying
troops to Kabul had allowed the warlords to overtake al-Qeada
as the main threat in Afghanistan.
POLITICAL
DEBATES
US
Senate moves to shift responsibility away from Department
of Defense (DoD)
Senators
Edwards (Dem running for President), Reed (Dem) and Roberts
(Rep) have presented a Bill called “Winning the Peace Act of
2003” to the Senate to increase the capabilities of the US
to provide reconstruction funds in the wake of conflict. The
Bill outlines proposed US structures and processes for
reconstruction, and encourages the Dept of State and USAID to
play a larger role than DoD in reconstruction efforts. It is
based upon a 17-point plan from the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS).
A previous
resolution
of inquiry from Reps. Kucinich (OH), Lee (CA), Schakowsky (IL), and Woolsey (CA)
to compel the White House to release to Congress “documents or other materials in the President's
possession relating to Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction"
failed to receive sufficient support.
Former UK
ministers question decision to go to war
June
17 saw two high profile former ministers give
evidence to a parliamentary investigation into the events
that led up to the war. Both Robin Cook and Clare Short
resigned from government over the war and both told of a lack
of cabinet discussion on the options for war and over
consultation on intelligence. Short, former International
Development Minister, said she had since been told that the
Prime Minister and President Bush had decided
to invade Iraq last summer. Short went on to say that the
Prime Minister’s power of decision over Iraq had gone
unchecked and that cabinet ministers were not fully briefed on
the issues. Robin Cook, former Foreign Minister and Leader of
the House said he was not convinced that there had been enough
evidence of WMD to go to war and called for UN inspectors to
be let back into Iraq.
Pressure
on both sides of the Atlantic over WMD
Reports
are gathering in Washington of criticism of the Bush
Administration’s evidence of Iraqi possession of WMD, with
direct editorials in papers such as the LA
Times and Congressional enquiries. Both the Senate and the
House have started closed intelligence hearings over the
evidence presented and the intelligence the Administration
possessed before the war began. Sen Carl Levin (D-Mich) wants
to question CIA Director George Tenet in public about the
distortion of intelligence and the failure to share sufficient
intelligence with the UN inspectors, rendering their work less
credible and speeding up the rush to war. Such debates seem
not to have had a significant impact on US public opinion,
however (see poll results
below).
In
the UK inquiries are being conducted by the Intelligence
Select Committee (in private and with their report vetted by
the Prime Minister) and the Foreign Affairs Select Committee (in
public).
LATEST
POLL RESULTS
Despite
a third of Americans believing that they were lied to by the
Bush Administration about WMD in Iraq, a Gallup
poll published on June 16 suggests that most Americans
believe WMD were a relevant issue. Although the number of
Americans believing that Iraq possessed WMD before the
invasion has fallen since February, it still holds at an
impressive 86% today. Almost as many (83%) still believe Iraq
was developing nuclear weapons, despite the lack of evidence
to support this view. This could
be explained by Americans’ willingness to accept
‘filtered’ information from government officials at face
value when it accords with preconceived beliefs.
In
contrast, in a YouGov
poll conducted on 3 June, 43% of respondents believe that
Tony Blair deliberately distorted the truth to obtain support
for the war, and 70% said that it mattered a great deal to
them whether the Prime Minister told the truth as he believed
it or lied. 18% of respondents said that they may change their
vote in the next election if WMD are not found in Iraq.
Iraq’s
first opinion
poll, conducted by the Iraqi Institute for Strategic
Studies set up recently
by a group of Iraqi statisticians, planning experts and
university professors, shows that 73% of Baghdad’s residents
believe that US forces have been negligent in their failure to
bring security to the city, but only 17% believe that US
forces should leave Baghdad immediately.
In
an extensive ICM/BBC
poll opinion of several countries, most polled believed
the US was wrong to invade (81%
of Russian and 63% French respondents). In several countries the US was seen as
a greater danger to international security than al Qaeda. The detailed
results show attitudes towards US culture and foreign
policy in a number of areas.
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