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April 11, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

As the end of Saddam Hussein’s regime unfolds the crisis in Iraq is far from over.  Post-conflict reconstruction is no longer an abstract issue but a pressing reality. 

Averting a humanitarian disaster should now be uppermost in the minds of coalition leaders.  The humanitarian crisis, which aid agencies are already warning could take years to resolve, cannot begin to be tackled until the area is made safe. 

Priority must be given to establishing legitimate law and order - as the scenes of looting in Basra and Baghdad illustrate. In the short-term the coalition forces will have to take on a policing role, although it is unclear whether they are prepared for this challenge.  The next step should be to rebuild and re-train the Iraqi police service and to re-establish the justice system; something the US will soon realise it cannot do alone.  The best way to involve others and provide legitimacy for this process is for the UN to play a central role, building on experience it has gained in other post-conflict regions such as the Balkans.

In the frenzy of day-to-day conflict reporting, the rationale behind the war should not be forgotten.  The UN weapons inspection process must be reinvigorated at the earliest opportunity, as only the UN has the legitimacy to make a final determination as to whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.  The large quantities of small arms in Iraqi society also pose a significant obstacle to security and development and reports that coalition forces have been arming Iraqi dissidents are worrying.  Experience in Afghanistan should have taught us that giving guns to the ‘good guys’ as a short-term measure only creates violence, crime, and the risk of conflict re-emerging.  It would be a tragedy if a war waged to disarm Iraq were to result in a more heavily armed Iraqi society.  

Paul Eavis, Director Saferworld

'This is the greatest feeling I've had in my life.' Ayub, a demonstrator in Bagdad

“When you think of the casualties, both military and civilian, the Iraqis have paid a heavy price for this… the Coalition has a responsibility for the welfare of the people." Kofi Annan

"I think it is important that Iraq's neighbors not meddle with Iraq." Paul Wolfowitz, US Deputy Defence Secretary

"Syria and Iran now have the chance to play their part in building a better future for Iraq." UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw

“Think of the divergence of interests, for example, between the grunts who are actually fighting this war, who have been eating sand and spilling their blood in the desert, and the power brokers who fought like crazy to make the war happen and are profiting from it every step of the way.” Bob Herbert, New York Times.

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Lawlessness threatens aid supply

The vacuum left by the Baath party’s demise has led to widespread looting and anarchy, a serious threat to the humanitarian effort, that has involved the ransacking of equipment, including incubators and heart monitors from hospitals. The Red Cross has suspended operations in Baghdad after the death of an aid worker on April 8 and Medecins Sans Frontieres have two staff missing in the Iraqi capital. Aid groups have criticised coalition forces for the situation. On April 10, Veronique Taveau, spokeswoman for the UN Office of the Humanitarian Co-ordinator for Iraq (UNOHCI), said "this inaction by the occupying powers is in violation of the Geneva Conventions." US Marines in Baghdad were given orders on April 11 to crack down on the disorder.

UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, made a statement to the House of Commons in which he expressed concern for the state of lawlessness in Iraq.  He said that the UK government were looking at sending police advisers to Basra to assist UK forces and to help to create a more lawful and peaceful environment.  He also ‘envisaged a national conference, bringing together credible representatives from all parts of Iraqi society to agree on the establishment of the interim authority’. International Development Secretary Clare Short has criticised the present lack of control, highlighting the shortage of water and the looting of hospitals as key concerns.

Congress battles to retain control

US departments also at odds over future Iraqi leader

Halliburton subsidiary to make $490 million ‘profit’

The contract to rebuild Iraqi oil infrastructure could be worth $7 billion and net the Halliburton subsidiary, Kellogg Brown & Root some $490 million in profit. In a letter from the US Army Corps of Engineers to lawmakers investigating Halliburton’s unopposed bid for the contract it is made clear that KBR are entitled to earn up to 7 percent profit from the deal.

Scrutiny of Contracts

Members of Congress are seeking to introduce legislation and to use the General Accounting Office to bring the contracting process governing the awards of $2.4 billion of reconstruction projects out in the open. Rep. Ron Wyden said, "to allow something like this to go forward with a significant number of no-bid, secret contracts does a disservice to taxpayers, does a disserve to businesses hungry for this work and ultimately to national security."

The European Commission has stated that it would scrutinise the way US authorities award reconstruction deals in Iraq. The Commission is to monitor deals to see if Washington breaches international trade rules on government contracts to see if they fall short of WTO rules on government procurement.

The UN role in Iraq

The post conflict situation in Iraq continues to pervade discussion in the security council, although the question of the North Korean nuclear programme has tended to dominate proceedings overall.  On Wednesday, 8 April, a UN spokesman reiterated the UN’s conviction of the need for the Security Council to approve the implementation of UN assistance in Iraq.  Whether or not the UNSC will be able to achieve the unity that must precede such implementation remains to be seen.

Bridging divides

Jack Straw has been visiting European leaders to rally support for a proposed new UN resolution which will ensure that the UN plays a vital role in the reconstruction of Iraq. However French, German and Russian officials are questioning what the British-US interpretation of ‘vital’ means. The three nations met in St Petersberg on April 11, and are expected to assert their support for a ‘central’ UN role in Iraq and express their fears of a ‘unipolar’ world dominated by the US (Financial Times April 10)  Earlier in the week EU's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security policy, Javier Solana outlined his vision of future EU-US relations in a speech at Harvard University, concluding that "It would be your loss and ours if we were to start quarrelling again".

EU Aid Contributions

International Legal Dimension

Targeting journalists

There remains anger across the Arab world and Europe at the killing of a Spanish and a Ukranian journalist in the Palestine Hotel and the apparent deliberate targeting of Al Jazeera, resulting in the death of one of their journalists. Twelve journalists have died in this war, and the EU is to make official representations to the US on this issue, while international reporters organisations and China’s main English-language newspaper are accusing the US of war crimes.

‘WMD’ inspections

It appears that coalition forces have so far failed to uncover any Iraqi chemical or biological weapons, despite mobilising a significant force of their own inspectors. A US Marine Corps combat engineering unit claimed to have discovered large quantities of nuclear weapons materials in the notorious Tuwaitha nuclear research centre near to Baghdad. Tuwaitha was perhaps the most heavily inspected site by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since it began inspections in December (visiting around 12 times) and materials had been under tight observation. IAEA officials suspect that the Marine Corps may have broken the seals to drums of low-enriched uranium, unsuitable for bomb-making.

Places of torture

Reports of the discovery by British forces of places of torture have been covered worldwide. Former victims of torture, recently released in the allies' taking of Basra, have told how secret police forces administered regular electric shocks, beatings and strung prisoners up. Many were accused of political opposition, or petty theft.

Prisoners of war and possible trials

US forces have captured at least 7,300 prisoners, and has yet to determine their future. However, US officials have indicated that they will not be sending prisoners to Guantanamo Bay, and most would be repatriated once an interim government was set up. US Senators have been urging the establishment of an international court to try war crimes at every level, but there is resistance to this idea from the Administration, who are planning to try leaders accused of war crimes or crimes against humanity, and have offered a reward for them. 

In his Commons statement this week, Jack Straw promised that if captured, Saddam Hussein, would face trial as a criminal, but that he might not warrant the ‘huge expense of a UN tribunal’.  Over the last six years, the organisation INDICT, which seeks to bring leading members of the regime to justice in national courts or before an international tribunal has collected evidence of the serious crimes committed by senior members of the Iraqi regime.  This evidence has now been published.

Oil ownership

The legal ownership of Iraq’s oil will need to be determined quickly by the UN Security Council if it is to be sold on the international markets to pay for humanitarian aid and reconstruction. SOMO, the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Organisation, presently sells the oil, but requires the agreement of the United Nations.

Regional and Strategic Impacts

US threatens Syria

Arab reaction to US in Baghdad

Turkey on tender hooks over Kurds in Kirkuk

Turkish troops on the border with Iraq have been put on high alert as Kurdish peshmerga fighters have occupied Kirkuk. On April 11 Turkey gave the Kurds 24 hours notice to withdraw from the city and dispatched military observers to the region. US Secretary of State Colin Powell gave assurances later to Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul that extra US troops deployed there will ensure that Kurdish fighter leave within hours.

LATEST POLL RESULTS

US public support for war hits new high

Two polls put support for the war above 70%.  An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted April 2-6 (the week before the fall of the regime) put it at 77%, while a Pew Research Center poll put it at 72%.  This poll also indicated a general approval for US media coverage of the war.  When asked about their perceptions of press coverage of the war, 32% considered the press to have done an excellent job and 42% considered that a good job had been done.  A further 15% rated it fair, and 9% poor.

After the events of April 9, support for the war took a sudden upswing.  The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found that 76% believed it was worth going to war with Iraq.  This figure was up 9% from the support the war had commanded – according to the same poll – only a day before.  This poll also found that only 15% of respondent believed that the war is indeed over, while 44% believed that minor fighting will continue and 31% foresee major battles ahead.  It is worth noting too that support for the UN as taking the lead in the reconstruction of post-conflict Iraq (at 45%) is now slightly lower than the level of support for the US doing the same (at 48%).  An April 8-9 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll placed support at 81% with 82% supporting how the war was conducted.  An April 9 ABC News/Washington Post poll put support at 80% and indicated that 66% of respondents considered that the war was going very well – up from 47% who felt the same on April 3.  In contrast to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, this poll found that 53% of those polled believed that the UN should take control of post-conflict Iraq, while 37% felt the US should do so.  The same poll also found that 77% of respondents believed that most people in Iraq were “on the United States’s side.”

Support in the UK not as emphatic

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