www. iraqconflict. org

October 10, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

October 7, 2003, marked the second anniversary of the beginning of the ‘war on terrorism’. The current status of that war in the two principal battlegrounds - Afghanistan and Iraq – leaves little ground for optimism.

The US-led bombing campaign in Afghanistan was meant to have destroyed the Taliban, but reports now suggest (Daily Telegraph, 8/10/03) that a Taliban army of up to 2,500 is mobilizing in Pakistan for a new assault on the country.

In Iraq, despite mounting political violence and growing numbers of fatalities among Iraqi citizens and coalition forces, US-led efforts at stabilization and reconstruction face rising criticism within the country itself, at home and internationally. Plans to deploy 10,000 Turkish soldiers to Iraq to relieve US forces, for example, have been heavily criticized by Kurdish members of the Iraqi governing council. And President Bush’s $87 billion supplemental request for ongoing military operations ($66 billion) and reconstruction ($21 billion) in Iraq and Afghanistan has been the focus of heated congressional hearings and debates over the past week. The accusations of ‘Gold Plating’ surrounding some of the reconstruction contracts have caused particular ire in both Republican and Democratic circles. 

Clearly, the rebuilding of Afghanistan and Iraq will be significantly more expensive, more dangerous and take longer than the American and British people were originally told. Will it also lead to a rethink of the flawed strategy of pre-emptive attacks and regime change by ‘coalitions of the willing’? One can only hope so.

Ian Davis, Director, BASIC

"We don't just put this complicated and tragic history aside without asking if our values and commitments are still intact." Archbishop of Canturbury, Dr Rowan Williams.

“More than 50 years of post-World War II experience have pointed toward the advantages of working, wherever possible, within the framework of alliances and multinational institutions. In jettisoning these lessons for the convenience of a largely bilateral operation, the US let itself at risk legally, financially and militarily.”  Presidential candidate Wesley Clark, from Iraq: What Went Wrong?  (25/09/03)

“When we were first starting our police force, we didn’t understand why they had to go to school until they learned lessons in respecting human rights of the citizens and how to avoid taking revenge.  We could teach the Iraqi police the lessons we learned.” Nexhat Daci, the speaker of Kosovo’s legislative assembly, on Kosovo’s offer to send police officers to Iraq. New York Times editorial (6/10/03) (So far, Washington has not accepted the offer.)

“Kay's interim findings offer detailed evidence of Hussein's efforts to defy the international community to the last. The report describes a host of activities related to weapons of mass destruction that “should have been declared to the UN”. It reaffirms that Iraq's forbidden programs spanned more than two decades, involving thousands of people and billions of dollars.”  US Secretary of State Colin Powell, in an editorial for the Washington Post. (7/10/03))

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Supplemental request could be cut

President Bush has failed to garner more international assistance for rebuilding Iraq on American terms, resulting in a large financial request to Congress for military operations and reconstruction efforts. The President’s request added to the nervousness in Washington as debates about strained troops levels and the sporadic, but deadly, attacks on American soldiers continued. Meanwhile, the US Congress has been debating the costs of the President’s $87 billion supplemental request, most of which would be spent on Iraq and a lesser amount on Afghanistan. Fiscal conservatives in both the House and Senate were considering ways to pare back the non-military portion of the request. 

Rice to head Iraq Stabilization Group, Rumsfeld admits surprise

The President has arranged for his National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice, to head an “Iraq Stabilisation Group”. The move was thought to signal a shift of post-conflict control from the Pentagon into White House hands, but official statements coming out of the White House continued to assert that the Defense Department would remain in control of post-conflict operations.  (Washington Post, 8/10/03)

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld expressed his surprise at the announcement. He apparently did not know about the formation of the Iraq Stabilization Group until Rice released a memorandum on October 2 to announce it. (Washington Post, 08/10/03) When asked about the National Security Council’s heightened role and the formation of the group, Rumsfeld said, "That's what the NSC's charter is. The only thing unusual about it is the attention. I kind of wish they'd just release the memorandum."  He added that: “…Unfortunately it's a classified memo, it shouldn't be, there's nothing in it that's classified." (Financial Times, 8/10/03)

Powell seeks Iraqi constitution in six months

Pressured by calls from European allies and Iraqis for the US to hand over more governing authority to Iraq, US Secretary of State Colin Powell set a goal of six months for Iraqis to develop a constitution. Powell said that "Six months seems to be a good timeline to put out there for the creation of this constitution, and also to give a sense of momentum and purpose to the effort of moving toward full restoration of authority over Iraq to the Iraqi people." (Herald Online-AP, 26/09/03)

Spain invites Iran to help reconstruction effort

October 8 saw Spain invite Iran to take part in the up coming conference in Madrid on reconstructing Iraq. The conference, taking place on October 22-23, will draw together 60 states and 15 international bodies to discuss funding and ways of reconstructing Iraq. The amount of foreign aid needed to rebuild the country over the next four years was put at $50 billion by Iraq planning minister, Mehdi Hafedh, who is touring western states ahead of the Madrid conference.

Iraq gains on electricity

Andrew Natsios, administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), announced on October 6 that electricity levels in Iraq were now back to pre-war levels. USAID also hoped to get reliable electricity to 75% of Iraqis by May 2004, and stated that 70 of Baghdad’s 90 sewage treatment plants have now been rehabilitated.

UK sees progress on education, oil production and fuel supplies

Security Situation

Turkey to commit troops to Iraq

Despite opposition from the Iraq Governing Council,Turkish troops look set to deploy in Iraq after the Turkish Parliament voted 358-183 (on October 6) in favour of allowing the government to commit troops. The Iraqi council is worried about sensitive relations between the Turks and the Kurds further destabilising the country. The Turks are expected to send 10,000 troops and become the 31^st nation to have forces on the ground in Iraq.

Suicide bomb kills eight at police station

A suicide car bomber crashed through the gates at a Baghdad police station on October 9, killing three Iraqi policemen and five civilians. A Spanish diplomat was also killed as well as two more American soldiers, bringing the total of US dead since the end of the war was declared six months ago to 93, with several thousand seriously wounded.

Legal Dimension

Baghdad court tries Ukrainian 'oil smugglers'

Two Ukrainians arrested by the Royal Marines appeared in Baghdad's central criminal court yesterday accused of smuggling oil. The men, an oil tanker captain and his first mate, were allegedly attempting to export diesel worth almost £1 million illegally. They claimed that the shipments were organised by an Iraqi dealer. It is the first trial of alleged oil smugglers under Iraq's new administration; oil smuggling was among a number of criminal offences encouraged by Saddam Hussein's regime. (Daily Telegraph, 7/10/03)

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

Israel launches attacks on Syrian soil

On October 5 Israel launched an attack on alleged terrorist camps in Syria, north of Damascus.  The attack, the first against Syrian soil in thirty years, followed a terrorist attack in Haifa that killed 19 on October 4. The Syrian authorities immediately called for the UN to condemn Israel’s actions but the US refused to go this far, with President Bush saying Israel had “a right to defend herself”. The air strike, which many see as an escalation of events in the region was followed on October 7 by Israeli warplanes buzzing the Lebanese cities of Beirut and Tripoli after border skirmishes between the two countries.

Reports on October 8 suggest the US has started considering legislation to impose sanctions on Syria linked to terrorism, a move the Arab League said will “increase tension in the region”.

New PM to quit?

Sharon threatens new air strike on neighbours

Following the attack on Syria, Ariel Sharon stated that Israel is prepared to launch more attacks on neighbouring countries. A day after the latest suicide attack in Israel, the Israeli military released an “intelligence map” outlining potential targets in Damascus. He spoke at a memorial service commemorating victims of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. (The Times, 8/10/003)

UAE Minister slams Arab media 

In a speech on October 7, Sheikh Abdullah Ben Zayed Al Nahayan, the United Arab Emirates information minister, criticised Arab governments and media for ignoring the reality of the Iraq crisis and lacking objectivity over the war, providing instead a “warped” view of events.

Allies encounter obstacles in building Afghan force

After more than 18 months, only about 7,000 Afghan troops have completed training under British, French and American officers. The programme has been plagued by delays, desertions and political interference from Afghan defence officials. The delays have also exacerbated setbacks in the ambitious, UN-mandated project to disarm and demobilize tens of thousands of regional militia forces whose commanders -- some notoriously abusive or corrupt, others constantly feuding with rivals -- still hold power in many parts of the country. The first formal demobilizations are now scheduled to begin this month. (Washington Post, 7/10/03)

Iran defies UN ultimatum on nuclear work

Iran will continue to enrich uranium, despite an October 31 deadline set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran argues that it has a right to be self-sufficient in nuclear fuel and that enrichment is key to its civilian nuclear energy programme. The IAEA fears that continued enrichment activities will enable Iran to break out of the NPT once it is close to producing a nuclear weapon. However, the country insists that it is committed to a nuclear-free Middle East. (The Times, 8/10/03)

POLITICAL DEBATES

Facing UN opposition, US may drop Iraq plan

According to US officials, the Bush Administration's plan for the future governance of Iraq has run into such stiff opposition at the UN Security Council that the Administration has pulled back from seeking a quick vote endorsing the proposal - and may shelve it altogether. Only two weeks after President Bush appealed to the UN for help in securing and reconstructing Iraq, Bush's top aides will decide soon whether it is worth the effort to get UN endorsement of the current plan.

What little momentum there was behind the American proposal was deflated after the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, disclosed his own reservations last week, much to the surprise of administration officials. Annan, according to diplomats who have talked to him, essentially takes the French view that the violent attacks on Americans in Iraq would subside once an interim Iraqi government was established, perhaps in a matter of months.

The principal point of contention between the US and Britain, on the one hand, and Annan, France and other council members on the other, is over the American intention to retain full control over Iraq during what could be a long period of writing a constitution, holding elections and restoring sovereignty.

Putin boosts prospects of new UN Iraq resolution

President Vladimir Putin said on October 10 that Russia hopes for approval of a new UN resolution boosting the role of the UN in Iraq before a donors conference in Madrid on October 23. '' We would like very much to reach an agreement on the UN Security Council resolution that would make a good basis for the work of the conference. Of course Iraq needs funds, but they can only be used efficiently if a political settlement is reached.'' His comments, at a meeting in the Ural Mountains with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, signalled a readiness to cooperate with the US. (AP story in The Guardian, 9/10/03)

NATO meeting: rifts to heal?

The nineteen NATO defence ministers met in Colorado for a two-day conference on October 8. With no fixed agenda, the informal meeting discussed the formation of a rapid response force but also provided the chance for rifts formed over the Iraq war to heal.

PBS documentary examines Chalabi’s role in WMD threat

In “Truth, War & Consequences,” a documentary aired on October 8 on the PBS Frontline programme, US government advisors claim that the divisive internal administration debate over Iraq's future centred on the desire by some White House and Pentagon officials to back the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella organization of Iraqi exiles headed by Ahmed Chalabi.

While Chalabi's previous failed efforts to mount a coup d'etat against Saddam Hussein had soured Clinton-era State Department and CIA officials on the Iraqi exile, in the documentary,  Chalabi emerges as a key figure not only in the Bush administration's post-war planning efforts, but also its attempts to establish a link between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. Government advisors and other key figures say it was Chalabi and his INC cohorts who fed intelligence linking Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda to a special intelligence office at the Pentagon established shortly after September 11. Chalabi has made no apologies for his efforts.

Chalabi's role in feeding suspect intelligence to the Pentagon only widened the growing rift with the State Department and intelligence agencies, insiders say, causing a logjam that effectively halted any meaningful post-war planning efforts.

Report urges better diplomacy toward Arabs and Islam

In response to concern about low public opinion in Arab and Muslim cultures towards the US, the Advisory Group on Public Diplomacy for the Arab and Muslim World, on October 1, released a report titled, “Changing Minds, Winning Peace: A New Strategic Direction for US Public Diplomacy in the Arab and Muslim World,” which was submitted to the Appropriations Committee in the US House of Representatives. The report recommends that structural changes be made to the Executive Branch of the US government to improve public diplomacy toward Arabs and Muslims. The report also calls for more staff and funding to be devoted to public diplomacy programmes, with a stronger emphasis on language training.

US inspector touts Iraqi sanctions

David Kay, the Bush Administration's chief weapons investigator in Iraq, believes that UN inspections and international sanctions put in place after the 1991 Gulf War were more effective in frustrating Saddam Hussein's plans for weapons of mass destruction than the US had realised, the Boston Globe reports.

Kay told reporters that the 1,200 members of his Iraq Survey Group have been surprised "at how often" top Iraqi scientists and policy makers "refer to the impact of sanctions" in their interviews with the Americans. Kay added that it "may be necessary to reassess what we thought" about the effectiveness of the UN effort. He also said Iraq had paid North Korea $10 million before the war for equipment to make ballistic missiles, but the deal fell through.

While Democrats said the Kay report, released on Thursday, demonstrated that the decision to invade Iraq was premature, President Bush pointed to the same text yesterday as evidence that Hussein posed a danger that had to be removed. (Boston Globe, 4/10/03)

LATEST POLL RESULTS

Public confidence falls in Bush’s crisis handling ability

According to a CBS/New York Times poll conducted September 28 through October 1, President Bush’s approval ratings for handling the Iraq situation, and foreign policy in general, continue to decline. 44% of those Americans polled approve of the way the US President has been handling foreign policy, while 45% disapprove. Similarly, 47% approve of the way the President is handling the Iraq situation, 48% disapprove. 41% thought the war on Iraq was worth the loss of American life and other costs, with 53% saying it was not worth it. 

The CBS/NYT poll included broader foreign policy issues. People were asked whether the US should try to change a dictatorship into a democracy where it can, or stay out of other countries’ affairs. Among those polled, 21% said the US should try to change the dictatorship, while 61% said the United States should stay out. 55% feel the US should not attack another country unless the US is attacked first. 35% feel that the US should attack first.

People were also asked whether relations today between the US and its European allies, are better today, worse today or about the same as they were when George W. Bush took office. Only 9% said those relations are better than when the President took office, whereas 55% said those relations are now worse.

Misperceptions said to have driven support for war

On October 2, the Program on International Policy Attitudes and Knowledge Networks released a study based on a series of polls which reveal that Americans hold key misperceptions about issues surrounding the Iraq conflict. The study concludes that those misperceptions influenced American support for the war. Some findings from the polls over May to September include:

Support for the war among those who believed the US had found Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was 74%. Among those who did not believe the US found Iraqi WMD, 42% support the war. Among those who incorrectly believed that a majority of world opinion favoured the war, 77% thought going to war was the best decision. Among those who thought world opinion held views that were ‘evenly balanced’ regarding the US-led war, 52% thought it was the best decision. Out of those who understood that the majority of public opinion opposed the US-led war against Iraq, 28% approved of the decision to go to war.

Based on polls conducted June-September 2003, 67% supported the war and believed that the US had found clear evidence in Iraq that Saddam Hussein was working closely with the Al Qaeda terrorist organization. 29% showed support for the war and believed that the US had not found such evidence.

PIPA and KN examined how all three misperceptions influenced Americans' support for the war, including: the connection of Saddam Hussein to the 9/11 attacks; the US discovery of Iraqi WMD; and world support for a US-led war.  Support for the war among those who held none of those misperceptions was 23%.  With one misperception, support for the war rises to 53%. Support for the war among those who held two of the misperceptions was 78%. For those who held all three misperceptions, approval of the Iraq war reached 86%. The PIPA/KN study also examined how American news broadcasts influenced perceptions about the Iraq conflict and support for the war.

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