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March
10, 2003
CONTENTS
EDITORIAL
This
week will be a critical test for the UN.
One of the most worrying aspects
of the current crisis is how the political and military
moves towards conflict do not seem
to be informed by any adequate consideration of
the consequences of
military action. On
March 7 we published an important paper by Ambassador
Robert Barry on the essential need to consider
post-conflict scenarios for Iraq and the wider Middle
East, before going to war.
Another
concern is that the moves to war are becoming
increasingly divorced from the weapons inspections
process. Frantic pressure is being applied to
Security Council members in the run-up to the vote on
the second resolution proposed by the UK, US and Spain.
However, Hans Blix’s latest progress report
cast recent Iraqi moves in a generally positive light.
He implied that Iraqi claims about the
destruction of biological and chemical weapons could be
verified but that this would take months, not days.
This does not tally with a March 17 deadline.
There is an inexorable sense of an impending war
and the very phrase ‘trip-wires’ used by the US and
UK is perhaps itself revealing.
Military and diplomatic pressure on Iraq to
comply with the Security Council is vital but the
inspectors must be given the opportunity to complete
their task and Iraq made to feel that disarmament would
avert war.
How
we deal with Iraq will have much wider implications,
both for stability in the region and how the
international community addresses future threats.
It is at these times when our international
institutions and international law are most
indispensable.
Paul
Eavis,
Director Saferworld
QUOTES OF THE WEEK
“We
are not watching the breaking of toothpicks; lethal
weapons are being destroyed.” Hans Blix
“Iraq
is still refusing to offer what was called for by 1441:
immediate, active and unconditional cooperation. Not
later, immediate; not passive, active; not conditional,
unconditional in every respect.” US Secretary of
State, Colin Powell.
"If
there is not UN authority for military action, or if
there is not UN authority for the reconstruction of the
country, I will not uphold a breach of international law
or this undermining of the UN, and I will resign from
the government." UK
Secretary of State for International
Development Clare Short, speaking in a BBC Radio 4
interview.
“If
it comes down to a question of yes or no to invasion
without broad international support, our answer is
no.” Editorial in the New York Times.
“We
believe that the use of force can arouse resentment and
hatred, fuel a clash of identities and of cultures,
something that our generation has a prime responsibility
to avoid.” French Foreign Minister Dominique
de Villepin
“Until
this Administration it had been possible to believe that
by upholding the policies of my president I was also
upholding the interests of the American people and the
world. I believe it no longer” John Brady Kiesling, an
American diplomat of twenty years in resignation letter.
UN
ACTIVITIES
Evidence in the UN
Security Council
Inspectors
expressed greater confidence in the inspection process
than expected in their reports to the UN Security
Council on March 7. Hans Blix said
(webcast)
that Iraq had accelerated its cooperation since January
and that in all the inspections there had been no
evidence yet found of proscribed BW activities. He had
investigated in detail the claims of mobile BW labs and
underground facilities using sophisticated equipment,
and had come up with no evidence to support the claims.
While he described the lack of full cooperation from the
Iraqis in supplying documentation, previous Iraqi
efforts to attach conditions to inspections had been
dropped. The destruction of 34 Al Samoud 2 missiles
represented very real disarmament. Blix finished by
appealing for more time, saying inspections would take
several more months if they were to be meaningful. In
the meantime he issued a 167-page working document
outlining the outstanding questions Iraq had yet to
answer.
UK
nuclear evidence on Iraq discredited
UN
chief nuclear weapons inspector, Mohammed El Baradei, discredited
(webcast)
UK intelligence
claims that Iraq had been trying to import uranium from
Niger for a weapons programme. He stated that
these claims, used
by the US Administration as evidence for Iraq’s
continued nuclear weapons programme, had been based upon
fabricated
documents. He had investigated other claims around
the import of aluminium tubes and magnets, and the sites
identified in US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s
evidence to a previous Security Council meeting and had
concluded that there was no indication of renewed
activity.
Foreign ministers’
responses
In
response to the reports, while Gen. Powell conceded
that the Al Samoud missiles did represent disarmament,
he said that what cooperation Iraq had given was
grudging, and fell far short of that required by
Resolution 1441 (webcast).
In an impassioned speech French Foreign Minister
Dominique de Villepin (webcast)
appealed
to fellow members of the Security Council to see the
dangers of rushing headlong into conflict.
Forthcoming vote
Recognising
the implications from the Inspectors’ report, UK
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw proposed
an amendment to the US-UK-Spanish Resolution already on
the table to give Iraq a deadline of March 17 to show
genuine disarmament. It now looks
likely that this deadline could be put further back to persuade
wavering UN Security Council Members; the
Resolution may further be amended with a list of
specific demands on disarmament that Saddam Hussein must
meet if he is to avoid a war. On March 7 the US remained
of the view that they would put the Resolution to a vote
early the following week, but at the time of writing
(March 10) it looks likely that the vote on the
Resolution will be
delayed a few days.
There
remains great speculation around the possible votes
within the Security Council. On March 9, on Fox News
Sunday, Gen Powell declared himself confident of
receiving the nine votes deemed necessary for a clear
majority, but recent statements over the weekend from
Chile, Cameroon and Angola suggest the task is
difficult. M. de Villepin is
touring Angola, Guinea and Cameroon March 9-11 to
lobby for no votes. Pakistan is due to debate the Iraq
crisis in Parliament on March 10. It is highly likely
that even with the majority, France will use its veto;
and Russia stated clearly
for the first time on March 10 that it intends to
use its veto, if necessary.
Surveillance
News of
the US ‘dirty tricks’ surveillance
operation of tapping UN delegations’
communications was leaked by intelligence officers at
Britain’s GCHQ; one
was arrested under the Official Secrets Act on March
8. The UN has begun
an investigation of the claims, but the US
Administration refuses
to comment.
Regional
and Strategic Impacts
Islamic
summit marred by row
On
March 5 the 56 members of the Organisation of Islamic
Conference met for an emergency meeting on Iraq, in the
Qatari capital, Doha. The conference was marred
by an argument between Iraq and Kuwait, after the latter
offered its support to an initiative urging Saddam
Hussein to step down. (Financial Times 06/03/03) The
initiative has gained strong support from Gulf States.
With tensions running high between Arab delegates the
conference eventually issued
a statement urging Islamic states not to take part in
“any military action targeting the security and
territorial integrity of Iraq”.
Four
days earlier a heated Arab League summit in Cairo
produced a similar statement but was overshadowed by
arguments between Libya and Saudi Arabia on US
involvement in the Middle East.
UN
plan for Iranian refugee centres
The
UNHCR High commissioner went to Iran on March 7 to discuss
potential refugee management on the Iranian border. The
Iranian Government had previously said that its borders
were closed but it has now been disclosed that three
refugee camps are near completion and a further seven
have been planned, giving capacity for 250,000 refugees.
Iranian
backed troops in Iraq
Reports
suggest
that Iranian backed troops are gathering in
Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. They are led by Ayatollah
Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, a senior Iraqi opposition Shia
cleric of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in
Iraq (SCIRI). It remains unclear what the motives of the
troops are and whether they would fight alongside
coalition troops.
UK
and European Debates
UK Government splits
emerge
International Development
Secretary, Clare Short has
threatened to resign from Tony Blair’s Cabinet
unless there is a second UN resolution supporting war in
Iraq (audio
full interview). She also suggested that even if the
UN voted for a second resolution, the decision would
only reflect pressure from the US.
Her
comments followed the earlier resignation of a
parliamentary aide to a Cabinet Minister, who disagreed
with the Governments position over Iraq. Reports suggest
that 10
other ministerial aides are threatening resignation.
UK Government changing
its position?
Speaking
to a young audience at an MTV
forum on March 7 Tony Blair indicated that he would consider
going ahead with military action against Iraq without a
second Resolution even if more than one country applied
an 'unreasonable veto'.
This was not, according
to the Prime Minister's Official Spokesman, evidence
that the UK’s position had changed because the Prime
Minister believed a second UN Resolution would be
achieved.
War
would be illegal say lawyers
Prime
Minister Blair’s comments regarding the threat of an
‘unreasonable veto’ were attacked in an
open
letter, by a group of 16 academic lawyers, who said
that "the prime ministers assertion that in certain
circumstances a veto becomes ‘unreasonable’ and may
be disregarded has no basis in international law".
UK role in building Iraq
chemical weapons factory
According
to a report
in the Guardian, the Falluja 2 chemical plant based
in Iraq was sold and installed by a British company
called Uhde Ltd, based in Hounslow, and
financed by export credits from the Conservative
Government in the 1980s.
The plant produced chlorine, a precursor element
necessary to develop mustard and nerve gases.
Downing Street has not denied the accusations and
many politicians have voiced their concerns.
Gulf troops targeted in
terror attacks
US
and UK forces based in Kuwait have stepped up security
following a series
of arrests and arms-finds related to possible terror
attacks. The increasing build-up of troops and equipment
in the region has been accompanied by a rise in the
arrests of people alleged to be plotting terror attacks.
EU parliament presses
for peaceful solution
Hans
Blix told a 21-strong delegation of MEPs visiting the UN
in New York on March 6, that "Saddam has made a
serious start to disarmament" but admitted that
"something significant" would have to happen
in the next few days to avert military action.
The delegation of MEPs presented Kofi Annan with
a petition calling for a peaceful solution to the Iraq
crisis, signed by national parliamentarians and MEPs
from 20 countries. (European Voice March 6)
France and Germany call
for emergency UN summit
Germany
has backed French calls for an emergency
UN summit on Iraq with the 15
security council members heads of state.
The meeting would come ahead of the vote on the
British/Spanish/US draft second resolution later this
week, but Colin Powell has deemed the meeting
unnecessary.
Last
week, France and Germany hardened their anti-war stance,
along with Russia, vowing not to allow a resolution
authorising war to be passed.
Paris
and Moscow did not explicitly use the word
"veto", but
said: "Russia and France, as permanent members
of the Security Council, will assume all their
responsibilities on this point." In
a joint declaration the three stated that disarmament in
Iraq could be achieved through the weapons inspectors,
but added "these inspections cannot continue
indefinitely".
China
also supported their stance.
US
Debates
Reaction
to the Security Council reports
Attention
in the US centred on the UN Security Council
discussions, and the need for international support for
the US position. President Bush, in
a radio address the morning after the Inspectors’
reports to the Security Council, remained forthright,
claiming that Iraq was to continue the production of Al
Samoud 2 missiles at the same time as destroying them;
that CBW were still being hidden in residential areas
and moved around Iraq, hidden in residential areas, and
that scientists interviewed by UN Inspectors were forced
to wear hidden bugs. It seemed clear that the President
was preparing the country for war, saying “The only
acceptable outcome is the outcome already demanded by a
unanimous vote of the Security Council: total
disarmament”.
In a
March 7 debate
in the Senate on Iraq after the Security Council
meeting, senior Democrats demanded the Administration
retain the support of the international community and
give the inspectors more time. However, the Democrats
remain more split on the issue than the Republicans, who
expressed strong support for President Bush’s stance.
Anger
over Blix report
Fresh
US claims surfaced
on March 10 around UN discoveries of Iraq’s
re-fashioning of cluster bombs to deliver chemical
warheads. UNMOVIC's detailed report is also said to
contain references to unmanned aerial vehicles, or
drones, with a much greater range than allowed, capable
of delivering WMD. According to ABS News Tonight on
March 8, one American official accused Blix of being
disingenuous for not highlighting this in his verbal
report, and for not referring to the possibility that
Iraq may possess 10,000 litres of anthrax. The
revelations could have a significant impact on the
vote at the Security Council.
Diplomatic
retaliation
President
Bush appears to be losing patience with the UN process
and his allies. In an
announcement on March 10 clearly directed at
European diplomats, he
stated that the US would delay any peace proposal
on the Middle East until after any invasion of Iraq was
complete (despite earlier assurances that it remained
top of his agenda).
Oil
connections
Adding
fuel to the claims of those who see the likely war in
Iraq as an attempt to secure Iraq’s oil supplies, the
Defense Department released
news on March 6 that the contract to secure Iraq’s
oil wells during and after any invasion has gone to
Kellogg Brown & Root Services, owned by Halliburton.
Vice-President Dick Cheney was chairman of Halliburton
until his election in 2000.
LATEST
POLL RESULTS
United States
A CBS
poll published March 6 suggests that the US public
appears willing to see the UN inspections process
continue for now. 59% appeared willing to wait for UN
approval (largely to ensure international support),
while 36% support unilateral military action. 60% of
those polled believed conflict would spread to a wider
Middle East war.
A Gallup
poll conducted over March 3-5 shows a stable 59% of
the US public supporting invasion of Iraq and 37%
against. Only 11% of the American public believes Iraq
is fully complying with inspectors.
United Kingdom
A
News of the World/ICM Poll conducted over March 6-7
showed that 15% supported military action regardless of
the UN position, 53% only if the UN Security Council
agreed and 22% were against any military action. A MORI
poll published
March 5 shows 75% support for a war IF supported by
the UN and if there was clear evidence that Iraq
continued to hide WMD. If these two conditions do not
hold, support dwindles to 24%, with 67% opposed. In a
separate poll, Tony Blair’s MORI
opinion rating has reached an all-time low with 31%
expressing satisfaction against 61% dissatisfaction with
his performance.
UP-COMING
EVENTS
March
11: 123rd Meeting of the OPEC Conference –
Vienna, Austria.
March
17: Draft deadline (within UN resolution to be voted
upon) for Iraq to demonstrate compliance.
March
17: UN Commission on Human Rights Session – Geneva,
Switzerland.
April
1: Deadline for Pentagon report on weapons to defeat
hardened and deeply buried targets.
May
31: Deadline for National Academy of Science study on
nuclear and conventional weapons.
June
3: NATO Ministerial meeting – Spain.
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