www.iraqconflict.org

May 9, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

The hunt for ‘weapons of mass destruction’ in Iraq is gathering pace. An Iraq Survey Group is being established to augment the present 600 or so inspectors currently on the ground in Iraq, taking the total number of people deployed in the search for illicit weapons to over 2,000 (although the group is also tasked with uncovering war crimes and terrorist activity).

Of around 620 suspect sites identified by the US inspection teams, around 110 have been investigated so far. The only significant find to date is a trailer that may have been used as a mobile bioweapons lab (one of 18 that Colin Powell referred to in his February address to the United Nations). Without independent (i.e. UN) verification, the discovery needs to be treated with caution. But even accepting the find at face value, this single trailer hardly constitutes the “significant and imminent threat to global security” that was used to justify US and UK action.

The evidence to date suggests that Iraq did have ambitious plans to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, but cut them back in the face of sanctions and weapons inspections to a minimal programme involving only a small nucleus of scientists and technicians and small quantities of chemical and biological agents. Of course, this is only an interim conclusion. But if US inspectors fail to uncover significant amounts of chemical and biological weapons in Iraq, then questions will be raised as to whether the threat was either genuinely miscalculated or deliberately exaggerated. It took the Scott Inquiry to uncover the truth over Britain’s role in arming Iraq; will a similar inquiry be necessary to uncover the truth surrounding the disarming of Iraq?

Dr Ian Davis, Director of British American Security Information Council

“No country in good conscience can support using sanctions to hold back the hopes of the Iraqi people.” President George W. Bush

“I do not recall ever saying that. I specifically did not put a time on it.” UK Defence Secretary, Geoff Hoon, when asked by The Times to justify the claim in an earlier British dossier that some of Saddam Hussein’s illicit weapons could be ready for use within 45 minutes.

“There’s no need to look in the crystal ball, people can see it in the book.” Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, referring to the dossier proving the existence of WMD in Iraq.

"Before the war, al Janabi was a faithful servant of Saddam. How can we trust him?" Iraqi doctor protesting at the appointment of al-Janab, a senior Baa'th party official, by the US to run Iraq's health system.

"(lawyers) have shown, albeit barely, that Iraq provided material support to bin laden and al-Qaeda." New York Judge Harold Baer, who awarded $104 million in damages against Iraq to two families of those lost on September 11, 2001.

"We should question the use of cluster bombs and depleted uranium, it is difficult to see why you need to use them, bar some circumstances." Major General Sir Patrick Cordingly, Commander of Desert Rats speaking at the House of Commons.

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

US Chamber of Commerce concern over monopoly of contracts

In a letter dated April 22 to President Bush, the President of the US Chamber of Commerce has warned that the award of closed-bid reconstruction contracts has compromised US commitments to open government. The letter follows widespread criticism abroad that the US government has used the seizure of Iraqi assets to fund contracts awarded to companies close to members of the administration.

Bush looks to implement Middle East ‘NAFTA’

With the American administration hopeful that the road map between Israel and Palestine will bring peace to the region, there are reports that the US administration is considering making the region a ‘free trade zone’ similar to the US relationship with Canada and Mexico under NAFTA. The deal would look to build on free trade agreements with Israel and Jordan by signing a US-Middle East free trade deal by 2013. (FT 09/05/03)

UN return to Iraq

The UN has re-established a permanent international staff presence in Iraq, with 21 staff in Baghdad, 50 in Basra and 90 in the three northern provinces. Since their return on May 1, the UN team in Baghdad have met with key ministry officials and with the Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA). In addition, the UN Office of the Humanitarian Co-ordinator for Iraq (UNOHCI) held its first 'Humanitarian Open Forum' in Basra on May 4. The forum will facilitate daily information exchanges between all humanitarian agencies.

Humanitarian overview

UNOHCI reports that water supplies across the country are improving, with average daily per capita supplies increasing to 20 to 30 litres per day. Speaking on Radio 4, Brian Burridge, the Commander of British forces in Iraq said that 80% of Basra now had access to water. However difficulties remain. The World Health Organisation has reported a potential outbreak of cholera in Basra. On May 7 the WHO stated that the Iraqi health care system required $20 million a month to ‘jump start’ medical support after the war. Hospitals are crowded and are breeding grounds for infectious diseases. A number of agencies are reporting a lack of chlorine for water treatment in southern Iraq. 

Although Bush declared an end to the war on May 1, conflict continues, along with sporadic attacks on US personnel. Security remains a major concern throughout Iraq. Tension in Feluja is still very high and various incidents have been reported on the road between Jordan and Baghdad, and between Ramadi and the border. Jakob Kellenberger, President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, at a press conference in Baghdad on May 7, strongly criticized the US occupying forces for continuing failures to protect civilians and fulfill its legal responsibilities as the occupying power to establish law and order. ICRC officials claim that shootings and looting are still widespread in many cities.

Optimism over a rapid resolution of problems in Iraq may be dented by this week’s statement from the UN high commissioner for refugees in Kabul that return of some 1.2 million refugees is being prevented by the poor progress in rebuilding the country and lack of security.  (Independent 09/05/03)

Countries discuss stabilisation force

11 European countries have reportedly offered assistance in patrolling British controlled area of Iraq. Poland has already offered the US 1,500 troops and requested its own zone, possibly the Port of Umm Qasr, but has requested financial assistance from the US to do this. As yet no Islamic countries have offered assistance to the force. (The Guardian 07/05/03)

Eviction of Palestinian refugees from Iraq

International Legal Dimension

The search for WMD

A Pentagon statement on May 7 outlined the strategy for uncovering WMD in Iraq. It suggests that much of the US pre-war intelligence is based upon evidence from a single defector. Details were given of the discovery of a suspected mobile bioweapon lab on April 19 (three weeks ago); tests were still being carried out to determine its purpose. Officials acknowledged that this probably was not the clear ‘smoking gun’ they were looking for. Despite the lack of confirmed findings in Iraq, coalition commanders continue to assert that they have secret information proving an extensive and weaponised chemical and biological military programme.

Questioned in the UK Parliament on May 5, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw reassured MPs that the government was keen to see the return of UN inspectors to Iraq in due course. Their objective would no longer be detection, rather a validation of US-UK findings.

Over 200 civilian deaths from cluster bombs

The website iraqbodycount.net reports that 200-372 civilian deaths from the use of cluster bombs in Iraq have been reliably reported. Many hundreds more have been maimed by the munitions.  The impact continues well after the initial use of the bombs, as unexploded bomblets pose severe hazards months later. This has had a big impact on Iraqi perceptions of the war in parts of the country. Human rights organisations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, in calling for a ban on the use of cluster bombs, have likened their impact to landmines. The UK MoD issued a statement claiming that cluster bombs are consistent with international law.

Whilst there are no proven figures on the numbers killed by unexploded ordnance more generally, ICRC report that the problem of unexploded ordnance is very serious. On May 1, three men were killed and five injured while playing football in Basra.  ICRC are organising training and safety briefings on the issue. It is hoped that further training can be provided when schools reopen.

Trials

As the Iraqi justice system opens again with the trials of 13 prisoners in Baghdad this week, US officials have been working on a plan to open a special Iraqi court to try former members of the previous Administration with ‘crimes against the Iraqi people’. The Bush Administration is also keen to see senior Iraqi military tried for war crimes by the US. 7,000 Prisoners of War have been released, leaving 2,000 still in captivity.

A New York judge has awarded $104 million from Iraqi assets to the families of two men who died in the World Trade Center after finding that Iraq was partly responsible for the attacks. It remains unclear whether the Iraqi assets seized by the US government ($1.7 billion of Iraqi assets have been allocated by Bush for post-war reconstruction projects) will be used to pay the award.

US Marine admits to war crimes

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

WMD in Iran?

The US administration has accused Iran of being in breach of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty due to secret enriching of uranium. The US is calling for the International Atomic Energy Agency, who are due to report in June on Iran’s nuclear programme, to condemn the Iranians. This has been denied by Iranian authorities who say their nuclear programme has only peaceful uses, but the allegations come at time when several US think tanks are looking to use victory in Iraq as a springboard to change the regime in Tehran.

Middle East road map stalls

The road map towards the creation of a Palestinian state has stalled in its first week. Israeli leader, Ariel Sharon, has again refused to co-operate fully with the Palestinian Prime Minster, Abu Mazen, until militants are controlled. The Israelis are also trying to force changes in the Road Map that will remove reference to the right of return for Palestinian refugees to Israeli controlled areas (FT 08/05/03). Against a background of increased terror attacks on both sides there has been a breakthrough on potential dialogue between Israel and Syria, with Sharon willing to resume talks over disputed territories that broke down in 2000.

POLITICAL DEBATES

Establishment of an interim authority in Iraq

With preparations for an Iraqi Assembly proceeding, Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar stated that Malaysia will not recognize a US-imposed government in Iraq. Russian, French and German recognition of any new government is likely to be contingent upon the successful agreement of a meaningful UN role in the country supported by a UN resolution. Meanwhile, Centcom chief Gen Tommy Franks, has warned governments not to resume diplomatic links within Baghdad until their delegations have been vetted by his team. UK Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, announced on May 1 that British diplomats would be returning to Iraq this weekend to re-establish a presence for the first time since the Embassy was closed in 1991. The Head of the British Office will “work with ORHA and other organisations on the ground in supporting reconstruction work and to maintain contact with emerging political figures within Iraq.”

The US has tabled a Security Council resolution at a secret session on May 10, looking for an agreement to be finalised soon after May 24. The US draft resolution would set up an ‘Authority’ run by the US and UK to last at least 12 months, with the UN acting in an ‘important’ advisory capacity. The ‘Authority’ would replace the UN’s Oil-for-Food programme (which itself would be phased out over a four month period) in determining how Iraqi oil revenues were to be spent in the reconstruction of Iraq. 

Mikhail Gorbachev delivered heavy criticism of the US in its prosecution of the war, which he asserted broke international law, and for what he described as ‘imperial behaviour’ since.

Lifting sanctions

US officials have been in negotiations with Russia to hammer out a deal to lift sanctions against Iraq. Russia will resist the lifting of full sanctions until UN inspectors can confirm that Iraq was free of weapons of mass destruction, in line with existing UN resolutions. Russia would support the immediate partial lifting of sanctions for humanitarian purposes. The US administration has, however, refused to countenance any role for UN inspectors in the near future. Meanwhile, Bush has suspended some US sanctions instruments to allow remittances to be sent to Iraq and for certain equipment to be imported. Some diplomats were sensitive to the message that the US might defy the UN embargo if it does not receive the support of other Security Council members.

New Europe joins NATO?

On May 8 the US Senate voted unanimously to give NATO membership to seven countries, six of which supported the Iraq invasion. Bush urged the other 18 NATO members to endorse the membership of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Solana warns US not to split EU

LATEST POLL RESULTS

Americans' contingent support for Iraqi democracy

In an ABC News/Washington Post opinion poll published May 2, 62% of Americans believe US forces should allow the formation of an Islamic fundamentalist government in Iraq if it were democratically elected as against 21% who do not. However, in a strong indication that the American public supports the establishment of US bases in Iraq, this support for Iraqi democracy would melt away if the Iraqi government were to demand the removal of US bases (only 23% would support a democratic Iraqi government demanding such removal as against 61% who would oppose). While opinion ratings for the President are high (at 75% approval for his conduct over the war), they remain significantly lower than those for his father after the 1991 Gulf War.

Americans appear to believe that the prosecution of the war against Iraq has played an important role in the wider ‘War on Terror’. In continual polling on the subject by Gallup, April witnessed a significant jump in optimism that the US Administration was ‘winning’ this war.

UK public opinion swings towards Blair, even with perceived increased threat of terrorism

Roger Mortimer of MORI has published an article on May 2 which details movements of UK opinion polls over the last few months. He analyses the swing towards support for Tony Blair’s position on the outbreak of the war. Other factors noted include:

• women were much more likely to disapprove of Blair’s position than men;
• younger people were more likely to swing behind Blair with the outbreak of war;
• while Blair’s public support has been restored, it is no better than it was before the outbreak of the crisis, and not as good as after other ‘big events’ like the September 11 attacks and the death of the Princess of Wales. The rallying effect has not been as great as seen in previous conflicts.
• Public focus is now firmly away from Iraq and back on domestic issues.

MORI’s State of Britain Survey clearly shows a move towards the US in the minds of much of the British public. In the same survey 60% of respondents believed that Tony Blair’s foreign policy had made the UK a greater target for terrorists, with a further 27% believing it had made little difference. However, 75% believe that Britain ‘remains a force for good in the world’.

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