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February
7th, 2003
CONTENTS
EDITORIAL
The US and UK
Governments are still finding it hard to prove that Iraq poses
an imminent threat. Whilst the Iraqi regime’s behaviour
strongly suggests that it does have something to hide, no
‘smoking gun’ has been uncovered. Equally, any linkage
between Saddam and al Qaida remains extremely tenuous. Without
either of these damning revelations, the rest of the world is
likely to remain unconvinced of the urgency for war.
Yet, if left
to its own devices, few can doubt that Iraq would continue to
pursue the development of weapons of mass destruction. No-one
should be relaxed about the prospect of Iraq building nuclear,
biological and chemical weapons. The risk that one day they
would be used, either by Iraq itself or by terrorists, would
be uncomfortably high.
Would we be
prepared to confront Saddam if he had nuclear weapons capable
of reaching European capitals? And if Iraqi expertise to
deploy deadly disease seeped into the black market how could
we hope to control it?
Today these future
horrors are only possibilities. In five years time we
may rejoice that war was avoided in 2003. But
it is also
vital to ensure that Iraq does not escape from its disarmament
obligations. Otherwise we may never again have the
stomach to rectify our error.
Dr
Stephen Pullinger, International Security Information Service
QUOTES OF THE WEEK
"I
cannot tell you everything that we know. But what I can share
with you, when combined with what all of us have learned over
the years, is deeply troubling," Powell said to the UN
February 5, 2003.
"It’s
five minutes to midnight," Chief U.N. inspector Hans Blix
commenting on Iraq’s non-cooperation.
“The
Security Council is not an authority charged with granting
permits to go to war but rather a body called upon to seek
peaceful solutions to safeguard security, peace and stability
in the world” Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal
“I
tell you directly, and through you to anyone is interested to
know, that we have no relationship with al-Qaeda” Saddam
Hussein in an interview with former MP, Tony Benn, earlier
this week.
"One
power (America) with a president who has no foresight and
cannot think properly is now wanting to plunge the world into
a holocaust," Former South African President, Nelson
Mandela
“Colin
Powell’s words carry more weight coming as they do from a
former sceptic” Christopher Hitchens, commenting on
Powell’s testimony to the UN on Wednesday.
“I
don't feel that I'm doing the wrong thing and I may not be
doing the easy thing but I do believe I'm doing the right
thing.” Prime
Minister Tony Blair.
UN
ACTIVITIES
Powell's
Security Council speech
“Unless
we act we are confronting an even more frightening future,”
Colin Powell told the UN
Security Council on February 5, in a meeting where the
atmosphere was compared to that of Adlai
Stevenson in October 1962.
In Powell’s attempt to persuade the international
community, the Secretary of State offered a collection
of intelligence gathered from intercepted phone
conversations, spy satellite photographs, eyewitness accounts,
and diagrams. Powell pressed his point by saying, “Saddam
Hussein will stop at nothing unless something stops him,” as
he continued to push for international support for an
invasion.
The
responses
from foreign ministers suggested that few minds had been
changed by Powell’s address.
Support for military intervention continues to come
from Britain and Bulgaria, Pakistan, and Spain. Some key
council members, however, were
uncomfortable with the implication that the US had been
hiding information from inspectors.
The French, Chinese and Russians concluded that more
inspections were needed, and that the numbers of inspectors
should be greatly increased. They wanted their own experts to
look at the evidence to determine how significant any breaches
had been. Cameroon, Chile, Angola, the Syrian Arab Republic
also expressed some skepticism. Iraq dismissed all of the
evidence as fraudulent and a collection of “stunts, special
effects, and unknown sources, in order to justify a war of
aggression with Iraq.”
Israeli
intelligence indicated that Powell’s speech closely matched
their assessment of Iraq.
The Israeli defence establishment believes that it was
a precursor to a war
that will happen by the end of February.
The
events in the UN Security Council on 5 February once again
underscored the Bush administration’s scepticism towards the
utility of inspections and the ways in which inspectors were
being deceived.
Nonetheless, the inspections are proceeding, with the
next report to the Security Council to take place on the 14
February.
In response to UNMOVIC press
statements of 4 and 5 February detailing their failed
attempts to conduct private interviews, Iraq has given way and
allowed such interviews. Inspectors succeeded in conducting
their first private interview with a Iraqi scientist on 6th
February and intend to conduct a number more.
Regional
and Strategic Impacts
Hajj begins as Arab states dispute over conference
Preparations for the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, the
Hajj, started this week amid arguments between the Arab
states over the Iraq crisis.
Bahrain, who were due to host a scheduled Arab League
meeting on March 24 have asked for the conference
to be switched to Cairo and held at an earlier date due to
“military threats”. This led to an attack on Bahrain by
the Saudi’s who claimed this took credibility
from the League and saw war as forgone. The Iraqi’s saw the
switch as a chance to create Arab backing against the war.
Baath Party senior official Saad Qassem Hammudi said Arab
states should “safeguard Arab national security instead of
opening breaches in it through the setting up of bases or
granting of facilities (to the United States) by some (Arab
states)”. Regional newspapers indicate that the Arab world
are not fully convinced about evidence but are resigned to
war. An editorial in the al-Bayan, a United Arab
Emirates newspaper said, “the evidence, whether real or
fabricated, only aims to sate those thirsty to demonstrate
their military power and the technologically advanced American
War machine”. (The
Times 07/02/03)
Saudi
Arabia raises concerns over stability in Iraq
Saudi Arabia remains apprehensive that a war could lead to
sectarial fighting and the break-up of Iraq with serious
consequences. Reacting
to Colin Powell’s address to the UN the Saudi Foreign
minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal raised
concerns over the future of Iraq, “If
things fall apart, who will come back and bring it all back
together?”. Whilst
recent reports indicate that Saudi Arabia have reversed its
opposition to a conflict and privately accepted the need to
remove Saddam Hussein (The Times 07/02/03), Prince Saud is
stressing the need to keep Iraq’s present military and
Government intact to maintain stability.
There are also proposals offering an amnesty to Iraqi
officials who agree to co-operate with UN officials.
Israel
backs US claims to evidence
Colin
Powell's speech to the UN on Wednesday was welcomed in Israel,
with senior sources saying the US intelligence matched their
own. Whilst sources
from the Israeli defence force thought more
“incriminating” evidence would come to light, there was
little doubt that Iraq would be attacked. Speaking
this week of the possibility of war Israeli Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon said,
"the elephants have begun to run and there's nothing that
can stop them".
UK
and European Debates
Splits over a second UN Resolution?
Contrary to Condoleeza
Rice’s comments on Thursday that there was no need for a
second UN resolution, the British Government have maintained
that a second resolution was preferable.
Prime Minister Blair re-iterated this position in a BBC
television interview
on Thursday stressing that if there were a second
resolution “I
think people would be behind me. I think if there's not then
there's a lot of persuading to do.”
Downing Street report discredited
On Monday Prime Minister Blair
made a statement
to the Commons regarding Iraq and his recent visit to
Washington. Blair drew attention to a
report,
published by Downing Street, which detailed Iraqi
non-compliance with UN weapons inspectors and the Iraqi WMD
programme. The report, which claimed to include new
intelligence, was subsequently criticised
later in the week when it was found to include
information, which had been publicly available for a number of
years without making this clear.
Former Labour party Minister visit to
Baghdad
On Tuesday former MP and
peace campaigner, Tony Benn, met
with Saddam
Hussein in Baghdad. Benn, who visited the Premier
before the 1991 Gulf war, questioned Hussein on the core
issues of the conflict, such as links to al-Qaida and the
non-cooperation with the UN inspectors.
UK Nuclear Weapons
Countering
recent speculation that war-planning might involve nuclear
weapons, the Prime Minister on Monday denied that there
are any plans to use nuclear weapons in respect of Iraq, in a
reply in the House of Commons. This is in contrast to previous
government statements implying ambiguity. In also is in
contradiction to Bush's signature of NSPD 17 and
Administration statements recently that nuclear weapons would
be considered explicitly in response to chemical or biological
attack, or even to destroy hardened bunkers containing such
weapons.
UK parliamentary vote on military
action unclear
On Thursday the British
defence Minister, Geoff Hoon, whilst announcing
deployment of a further 8,000 troops to the gulf region said
that there should not be a parliamentary vote on use of force
against Iraq saying that any vote would remove “an element
of surprise”. This provoked angry responses from both side
of the house, with Labour’s Dianne Abbott saying that due to
the size of force in the Gulf “the likelihood of any attack
being a surprise is remote”. (The Times 07/02/03)
Prime Minister Blair contradicted this later on
Thursday by saying that Britain could only go to war with the
support of Parliament.
A UK parliamentary Human Rights
Group, along with the organisation, INDICT
criticised the refusal of the Attorney General to prosecute
Iraqi war criminals in the British courts last week.
INDICT, which has spent five years
collecting evidence of war crimes committed by the Iraqi
regime against British citizens taken as hostages during the
Gulf War, stated they had all the evidence necessary to indict the regime in
Britain.
183 UK parliamentarians have shown
their support for trying Iraqi war Criminals in a Commons Motion
.
10 more European countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Macedonia and
Albania) joined last weeks ‘Gang of eight’ in pledging to
take part in US led military action to disarm Saddam Hussein,
if he continues to defy the UN.
Medical staff, mine clearance and over-flight rights
rather than combat forces are likely to be provided.
Altogether 19 European States now back war.
Last week however, the European Parliament voted 287 in
favour (209
against, 26 abstentions) of a resolution
stressing that everything must be done to avoid military
action.
EU
splits remain on Security Council
Despite growing support across Europe for military action,
the four EU member states on the Security Council remain split
over what action to take, with the UK and Spain supporting the
US but France and Germany unconvinced despite Colin Powells
new evidence.
Blairs meeting with Chirac did little to change the French
Presidents formal reluctance to war, though analysts predict
he is merely playing ‘hard to get’ and will finally
support a war. Germany remains insistent in its support for a
peaceful solution, backing French proposals to intensify
weapons inspections.
In an effort to overcome splits the Greek Presidency, has
called an emergency EU Summit,
which may
include the EU's 13 candidate states and Iraq's neighbours. It
is predicted to take place on
Monday 10 Feb.
US
Debates
Colin
Powell’s presentation to the UN Security Council on 5
February was followed the next day by a speech
by Bush that further reiterated the apparently increasing
impetus towards war.
In it, the President declared the “Saddam Hussein was
given a final chance; he is throwing that chance away.”
More pointedly, he added that “the game is over.”
Such comments were made despite of, and in contrast to,
comments earlier in the week at a press
briefing, in which it was emphasised that no decision in
favour of the use of force had been made.
Although the public remains wary of conflict, it seems
that the Administration is moving more quickly towards it.
In
response to Powell's evidence to the United Nations, the
Fourth Freedom Forum published a report Contested
Case (with summary)
outlining the reasons for continuing with extended
inspections.
US
make pledge on Iraq oilfields
The
Whitehouse issued a statement denying reports that the US
intended to take control of Iraqi oilfields and divide them up
amongst allied nations that had taken part in any war. Instead
they said that the US would provide an “umbrella of
security” to ensure Iraq’s oilfield maintained production.
(FT 07/02/03)
Economic
Gloom in US
The
possibility of a double-dip
recession is rising.
Wall Street is on a downward spiral and business
executives are freezing spending and hiring, as all are
fearful of commitments to come.
National anxiety
over war and the loss of the Columbia Space Shuttle could
derail the feeble growth and recovery of the economy.
The concern is that any bad news, such as an Iraq
invasion or a terrorist attack on the US, will be the final
blow that guarantees a recession.
David Wyss, chief economist at Standard and Poor’s in
New York says, “The real risk is war. It can go bad in all sorts of ways and that could push the US
into a double-dip.”
LATEST
POLL RESULTS
American
attitudes regarding the growing momentum within the US
administration towards war with Iraq began the week with
little alteration from the one previous.
A CNN/USA
Today/Gallup poll conducted from 31 January to 2 February
showed a drop of one percent in the approval of George W.
Bush’s handling of the situation with Iraq, from 55% to 54%.
However, the same poll showed that those in favour of a
US-led invasion of Iraq with ground troops to remove Saddam
Hussein increased from 52% to 58%, with those opposed dropping
from 43% to 38%.
The
Administration had been relying upon Powell's speech to the
Security Council to swing round floating opinion. When
asked who they trust more, the American public chose Colin
Powell over George Bush at a 63% to 24% margin.
Another
poll, conducted immediately after Secretary of State Colin
Powell’s address to the UN, found that the proportion of
those in favour of a US invasion of Iraq had increased from
50% prior to the speech to 57%.
The same poll, however, implied that Powell had been
preaching to the converted, with 81% of those who claimed
familiarity with the contents of the speech saying that they
had not changed their views as a consequence.
Powell
nonetheless did less well in his attempt to link the Iraqi
regime with Al-Qaeda. In
an ABC
News/Washington Post poll, 36% believed that this link had
been demonstrated, as opposed to 71% who believed in Saddam
Hussein’s chemical and biological weapons programme, and 61%
who were convinced of Iraq’s nuclear weapons programme.
Meanwhile a poll on Monday in Prime Minister Blair’s
constituency of Sedgefield, Co Durham, saw 70% of people
against war without a second resolution. (Daily Mirror
03/02/03).
A recent Russian poll by the Public Opinion Foundation in
Russia has shown that 61% of Russians believe that Russia
should remain neutral if military operations began against
Iraq and over 50% thought that oil was a key factor driving
the US position, 12% believed that weapons of mass destruction
and links to international terrorism was the primary
motivation. (The
Times 06/02/03).
UP-COMING
EVENTS
Feb 8:
Chief
U.N. weapons inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei go to
Baghdad for second round of talks with Iraqi officials.
Feb 14: Blix and ElBaradei due to brief the UN Security
Council on their work on Iraq.
Feb 15: Mass anti-war protests planned across Europe.
Feb 15: The 65-member Iraqi opposition steering committee,
set-up in December and expected to form the basis of a
transitional post-Saddam government, holds its first meeting
in the Kurdish autonomous region of northern Iraq.
Feb 18: Second vote on whether to allow US combat troops in
Turkey.
Feb 18: 108th Meeting of OPEC Board of Governors -
Vienna, Australia.
March 1: Deadline for Pentagon report laying out the
strategic nuclear force plans through fiscal 2012.
March 1: Blix must present a report to the Security Council on
his work. A report is required every three months under a
resolution adopted in December 1999 that established the U.N.
Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, which Blix
heads.
March 11: 123rd Meeting of the OPEC Conference –
Vienna, Austria.
March 17: UN Commission on Human Rights Session – Geneva,
Switzeland.
End
of March: Blix submits "key remaining disarmament
tasks.”
April
1: Deadline for Pentagon report on weapons to defeat hardened
and deeply buried targets.
May
31: Deadline for National Academy of Science study on nuclear
and conventional weapons.
June
3: NATO Ministerial meeting – Spain.
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