|
www.iraqconflict.org |
|||||||||||
|
June 6, 2003 CONTENTS
The Prime Minister’s
assertion that Iraq’s “military
planning allows for some of the WMD to be ready within 45
minutes of an order to use them” is unremarkable. What is
more remarkable is that some people have chosen to
construe it to mean that the UK was less than an hour from
Armageddon. Unfortunately, the
term ‘weapons of mass destruction’ - which embraces
nuclear, chemical and biological weapons - is a misnomer.
Whereas nuclear weapons are truly massively destructive,
chemical and biological weapons are not - they neither destroy
things nor need be lethal against those properly protected.
So, if we now discover a stockpile of shells containing
mustard gas in Iraq how significant would that be?
Or what if we find
a spray tank containing 200 kg of anthrax? Well, perhaps we
should be more worried because ten years ago the US Office of
Technology Assessment estimated that such a quantity released
over Washington DC by a light aircraft could kill between
130,000 and three million unprotected people. Iraq could not
account for 8,500 litres of anthrax and what price finding
that amount hidden in a country of Iraq’s size? Dr.
Stephen Pullinger, ISIS QUOTES OF THE WEEK "The Iranian nation and officials are not after a war and they would not drrag the country to the precipice of a military showdown, but all must know that attacking Iran would mean suicide for the aggressor." Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on rumours of war with America "We shall never succeed in our action (war on terror) if we don't have control over everything in Afghanistan." Romano Prodi, European Commission President "Our flag has been waving, it seems, in servicing a regime change significantly benefiting US corporations." Actor Sean Penn, who took a full page advert in the New York Times on May 30 to denounce the war and President Bush "It is not justified to jump to the conclusion that something exists just because it is unaccounted for." Hans Blix, Executive Chairman, UNMOVIC "One thing is certain: no terrorist network will gain weapons of mass destruction from the Iraqi regime because the Iraqi regime is no more." President Bush on WMD, 5 June Conference
on Iraq's future cancelled
The American led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) has cancelled
a planned July national conference in Baghdad on the future of
Iraq. The
conference was due to follow the same ‘big tent’ format
that saw Hamid Karzai elected transitional leader of
Afghanistan but on June 1 the Chief Administrator for Iraq,
Paul Bremer, announced that it had been cancelled to speed up
the formation of an interim government. Bremer said that the
CPA will now appoint a 25-30 man member council to advise
Iraqi Ministries leading to calls that the US was stalling on
the creation of a sovereign independent Iraq. (FT 03/06/03) Progress in rebuilding However, the Iraqi Prospect Organisation will shortly announce details of a National Women's Conference in Baghdad to be held at the end of June. "The conference will assess women’s role in the new Iraq and the problems they faced under Saddam’s regime." The latest update from the Iraq UNOCHA office reports on some positive progress. As of June 1, the World Food Programme has been operating throughout Iraq. 26 of the 61 former Iraqi police stations in Baghdad are scheduled to reopen on June 30 and coalition forces are performing 2000 patrols per day, 100 of which are alongside Iraqis. Availability of fuel has also improved, although looting remains a problem in the oilfield areas. Future oil sales used as collateral for rebuilding? There have been reports that the US is considering using Iraq's future oil and gas revenues as collateral to pay for reconstruction of the country. The deal would see some of Iraq's projected $25 billion a year oil and gas revenues used to pay back loans from foreign banks. These loans would pay for the contracts to rebuild Iraqi infrastructure, currently decided by the US government and only going to US corporations. Mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners of war Investigations
into a series of incidents involving the mistreatment by
British armed service personnel continue. The Ministry of Defence is also investigating allegations that a soldier from 1st Battalion Royal Regiment of Fusiliers - part of the 7th Armoured Brigade, (Desert Rats) mistreated Iraqi prisoners of war, after photos allegedly showing the abuse were discovered. If found guilty, the soldiers will be in breach of the Geneva Convention. Two further investigations are being carried out by the MoD regarding the conduct of Commander Tim Collins, 1st Battalion Royal Irish Regiment, one of which is also regarding the alleged mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners of war. US
mistreatment of prisoners could be more systematic. Human Rights Envoy in Iraq During a visit to Iraq, Ann Clwyd MP, Tony Blair's appointed human rights envoy, declared that she had seen enough evidence to prosecute the 12 leading members of Saddam Hussein's regime (The Times 02/06/03). The evidence consists of witness statements and is to be supported by evidence being gathered by a team of British forensic scientists who have begun excavating 50 mass graves discovered so far. Ann Clywd experienced an ambush attack during the visit, but was unharmed. John Sawers, head of the British mission in Basra, has stated that those who carried out atrocities under Saddam Hussein are likely to be tried in newly constituted Iraqi courts, and if found guilty, face probable execution. 'We are, as a government, opposed to the death penalty, the Americans are not, but it will be up to the Iraqis to decide..' (Independent on Sunday 01/06/03) Cluster Bombs The legacy of the use of cluster bombs continues to threaten the security of Iraqis on a daily basis. Up to 10,000 unexploded bomblets lie in strategic areas, according to a map issued by the official Humanitarian Operations Centre based upon intelligence assessments. In an interview on BBC Radio on May 29, Armed Forces Minister Adam Ingram admitted that UK forces in urban residential areas had used cluster bombs, and that efforts would be made to clear them up. Regional and Strategic CONTEXT The "road map"
moves forward President Bush has toured the Middle East in an attempt to bring life to the flagging peace process between Israel and Palestine. Bush met with both Israeli leader Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Abu Mazen in Egypt. As a result of the talks Sharon admitted for the first time that there should be a Palestinian state, although he didn’t go as far to say it should be independent, and said his government had identified 17 Jewish settlements for removal. The talks provoked angry demonstrations on both sides, with Jewish settlers in the occupied territories and radical Palestinian groups such as Hamas both demonstrating. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who was not invited to the talks in Aqaba, dismissed Sharon’s pledges as nothing “tangible”. Iran feels the pressure
With US forces on two of its borders, has been vocal
in its opposition to American pressure for regime change. Vice
president Mohammad
Ali Abtahi, in acknowledging the threats, has said that
Iran must avoid giving the US any “pretexts” to attack or
push for a change of government. The Iranians have been
accused of harbouring and funding al-Qeada, causing unrest
in the fledgling Iraq and developing Nuclear weapons. Director of Al Jazeera is dismissed The director general of the Arab television network Al
Jazeera, Muhammad Jassem Al Ali, has been sacked
amid claims that the Qatar based station had collaborated with
Saddam Hussein’s regime. The station drew criticism from US
and UK government's during the war for showing graphic images
of civilian and coalition casualties. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan is in the UK to request more aid to rebuild his nation. Per capita assistance to Afghanistan was the lowest of any recent post-conflict situation. The Finance Minister has estimated that the country needs $15 billion in foreign aid over the next five years, plus $15 billion in foreign investment - in addition to the $5.2 billion pledged at the Tokyo aid conference in 2002. (Financial Times, 05/06/03) Karzai is continuing to face difficulties in controlling provincial warlords and has threatened to resign, should he fail to receive money from them. Many parts of the country remain 'no-go' areas, with the Taliban resurgent on the borders with Pakistan. On 5 June, forty guerillas opposed to Karzai's transitional government were killed in one of the biggest battles with pro-government forces since late 2001. Poppy cultivation is forecast to be at record levels, despite specific UK efforts at elimination. African peacekeeping The
EU
has announced its
first military mission outside Europe agreeing to send 1, 400
French US debates and criticism over government WMD claims In his first interview since leaving the Pentagon as Army Secretary in May, Thomas White, criticized defense chiefs for being "unwilling to come to grips" with the numbers of US troops and reconstruction workers required to be in the country after the war. (USA Today) Although the discussion is less vehement in the United
States, the fruitless search for WMD has begun to provoke
debate. Representative
Dennis Kucinich – a Democrat from Ohio – expressed his
intention to introduce
a resolution demanding that the White House detail its
claims regarding the extent of, and threat posed by, Iraq’s
alleged WMD programme. The
Senate Intelligence Committee will review documents, but no
formal hearing is thus far scheduled.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, however, continued
to point out that the war had barely been over for a month and
expressed
the administration’s confidence that WMD would be found
in Iraq. During the past week, the G8 meeting took place in Evian, France.
President Bush and French President Chirac were at
pains to state
that relations between the two countries had reached détente
although Bush, in something of an understatement, asserted
that their relations had gone through “a
difficult period". In an increasingly rare show of unanimity, the G8
leaders issued a statement regarding the nuclear
programmes of both North Korea and Iran, urging those states
to put an end their nuclear ambitions. UK
criticism
- calls for an inquiry into Iraq war The row over whether the intelligence used as the basis for going to war in Iraq was accurate or was spun by the UK Government continues to rage. Tony
Blair has agreed to allow the all-party Intelligence and
Security committee (ISC) to conduct an inquiry into the Iraq
intelligence row. Mr Blair said its report would be published and his
spokesman indicated that the Prime Minister himself could
give evidence to the inquiry. However, this committee
meets in secret and the Prime Minister has the power of veto
over publication of committee reports. The parliamentary Foreign Affairs select committee also
intends to investigate the way the government presented
intelligence information over Iraq's weapons. The
Liberal
Democrats are continuing to call for a full independent
inquiry into whether intelligence documents on Iraq's weapons
were changed on the orders of Downing Street to strengthen the
case for military action. On Wednesday 4 June the Liberal
Democrats, backed by the Conservatives, were defeated in a
motion calling for a judicial inquiry into the matter, by 301
votes to 203 UN Special Representative Appointed; Security Council meets In the wake of the adoption of UNSC resolution 1483, UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan named Sergio Vieira de Mello as
the UN Special Representative in Iraq for four months.
Vieira de Mello, who has taken a leave of absence from
his post as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, left
for Baghdad, arriving on 2 June – at roughly the same time
as food to Iraq from the UN World Food Programme began to
reach the country for the first time since the beginning of
the war in March. On
the following day, Vieira de Mello met with both US and UK
heads, Paul Bremer and John Sawers.
Hans Blix, the Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC, has added his voice to those questioning the pre-war intelligence on Iraq's WMD programme. Addressing the UNSC on 5 June, Blix presented a report, which asserted that no evidence of a WMD programme had been found. Blix also pointed out that the Iraqi regime had done little to create international confidence when it failed to account for missing items and areas of concern to the international community. Finally, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has sent inspectors back into Iraq to perform a limited inspection on the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Centre. This site, which had become the focus of concerns regarding post-war looting, is to be partially inspected in the hopes of discovering how much nuclear material is missing. The IAEA is to have no access to the six other sites, which had caused concern for similar reasons. The US has continued to be reticent regarding the post-war role of UN weapons inspectors in Iraq. The search for WMD: unconcerned in the US, reservations elsewhere The reconstruction of Iraq, the continuing failure to
find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the general
perceptions of the war in Iraq dominated the latest polls.
Belief in the success of the war and post-war
reconstruction efforts appear to remain relatively high in the
United States itself. A
CNN USA
today/Gallup poll indicated that 59% of those surveyed
considered things to be going “moderately well” in Iraq,
11% believe them to be going “very well” and 22% consider
them to be going “moderately badly”.
The same poll, however, demonstrated substantial doubt
regarding the plans that the Bush administration had made for
reconstruction, with 56% of those polled believing the
administration to have a clear plan for reconstruction and 41%
believing the opposite. Once
again, there appears little evidence that the location of WMD
within Iraq is considered vital, with 56% also believing the
war in Iraq to be justified even if such weapons are never
discovered. Only
23% believe such justification to hinge on the finding of WMD.
Nonetheless, 67% did not believe that the Bush
administration deliberately misled the public regarding
Iraq’s WMD programme. This faith in government was not echoed in the UK,
according to a Yougov
poll published in the Daily Telegraph on 2 June. This poll showed that 44% of those polled believed that Prime
Minister Blair and President Bush had misled them regarding
the threat from Iraq’s WMD.
Whereas before the war 71% of the public were prepared
to believe that Iraq possessed chemical and biological
weapons, that proportion has now dropped to 51%. Also released this week was a poll conducted over the course of May 2003 by the Pew Research Center. This poll, carried out in over 20 countries, was part of a broader survey of 44 countries, conducted over 2002, on globalisation, democratisation, and the role of Islam in governance and society. It pointed, unsurprisingly, to a sharp drop in the image of the United States within the countries surveyed. It further indicated a sharp drop in public confidence in the United Nations and revealed a desire, within NATO states, to cultivate a unilateral relationship with the US – as regards diplomatic and security issues – rather than one based in an alliance. Within the US, the poll demonstrated that 59% considered the US and allies to be doing a good job in the rebuilding of Iraq. Conversely, 53% of those polled in Australia and 50% of those polled in the UK considered the US and allies to be doing only a fair or poor job in the country's reconstruction. Finally, support for the US-led war on terror between 2002 and 2003 remained relatively constant in some states while dropped significantly in others. In Canada, such support remained steady at 68%, while in the UK support dropped slightly from 69% to 63%. In Germany and France, such supported had dropped from 70% to 60% and from 75% to 60% respectively. In Pakistan, it had dropped from 20% to 16% and in Jordan from 13% to a mere 2%. If you would like to unsubscribe from these email updates, please email: unsubscribe@iraqconflict.org. If you would like to subscribe another email address, please email: subscribe@iraqconflict.org and include your name and affiliation (optional). We welcome any comments
or feedback. Home - Mission - News - Opinion - Publications - Links - Search
|
|||||||||||
 |
 |
 |
|||||||||
