www. iraqconflict. org

September 5, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

It has been a devastating few weeks for the people of Iraq, the UN and the Coalition. The severe bombings that killed the Shi’ite leader Ayatollah Mohammed Baqer al-Hakim and the United Nations envoy Sergio Vieira de Mello have signalled a further deterioration in security and increased the pressure to urgently address the pressing challenges of reconstruction and nation building.

In the UK doubts over the reasons for going to war escalated during the Hutton Inquiry when Head of the Joint Intelligence Committee Sir John Scarlett acknowledged that the weapons referred to in the 45 minute claim were confined to small calibre battlefield weaponry. In addition, the Head of the Defence Intelligence Staff’s Iraq WMD section, Dr Brian Jones accused the Government of failing to accurately represent the threat posed by Iraq.

Meanwhile, overstretched coalition troops are failing to contain the worsening security situation.  The resultant US draft resolution to the UN which calls for a Security Council mandate for a multinational military force is necessary, but must go further than simply requesting a unified command with US commanders ultimately in charge. This solution is likely to simply draw further attacks onto the UN and undermine its legitimacy in the eyes of Iraqis.  The UN must finally be enabled to play its ‘vital role’ without US control and be given the lead in the immediate reconstruction and security efforts.  Only in this way will a foreign presence in Iraq be provided with the necessary legitimacy required for the delicate task of nation building. In parallel to this, there is an urgent need for Iraqis to have ownership of the reconstruction process and to agree a timetable for handing over power to a representative Iraqi government.

Paul Eavis

“We are at risk of strategic failure in Iraq.” alleged remark by UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, in a leaked memo.

“There was terror on this land [Iraq] under Saddam Hussein. It was perhaps not car bombs; it was a more silent and in some ways a more awful terrorism.” Ambassador Paul Bremer, US Administrator in Iraq in an interview on Public Service Broadcasting.

"Iraq must not remain occupied, and the occupation must leave so that we can build Iraq as God wants us to do." Abdelaziz Hakim, member of the Iraqi Governing Council and brother of Ayatollah Mohammed Bakr al-Hakim, quoted in the Los Angeles Times.

"They keep telling me they will train my men, but I have given them their names on 10 occasions, and they told me they lost the list. We are targets, you know. We could be next. I told the Americans I am very scared. The guards sleep most of the time." Dr. Raja Habib Khuzai, a Governing Council member, commenting on security at her home, quoted in Washington Post.

"To an alarming degree, America has become a scofflaw nation." Former congressman Paul Findley

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Aid agencies withdraw from Iraq

Iraq’s Governing Council announced

The newly-appointed Iraqi interior minister, Nouri Badran, is to set up a paramilitary anti-terrorist force with an anticipated strength of 7,000 to 10,000, and former Iraqi soldiers will be encouraged to enlist. Mr. Badran was sworn in on September 3. (The Guardian 4/9/03)

US and UK review troop commitments 

The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has calculated that occupation of Iraq could cost up to $29bn a year. It points out that the US army lacks the active duty troops and resources to sustain the occupation in Iraq at present troops levels beyond next March without receiving help from other countries or calling on other reserves. The CBO report goes on to explore the possibility of fielding a US force of up to 106,000 if it uses Marine Corps units, Army Special Forces groups and National Guard combat units in Iraq. Such units have generally not been used for peacekeeping in the past.

The UK government has announced a review of British troop levels in Iraq, as the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, reportedly warned of "strategic failure" unless more soldiers are dispatched to ensure security and reconstruction. Eleven British soldiers have died in attacks since major combat ended on May 1.

NATO in Iraq

Poland has assumed command of the Multinational Division Central South in Iraq as part of the international stabilisation force with training, logistical and intelligence support from NATO, as well as with contributions from individual NATO countries and Partner nations. Spain provides a substantial presence and the Deputy Commander, while Ukraine is the second largest force contributor. Other Allied and Partner contributors include Bulgaria, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, The Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Slovakia and the US.  (NATO Media Advisory, 03/09/03)

Iraqi Council Foreign Affairs Minister Hoshyar Zebari has said that his Government would not welcome Turkish troops in Iraq. Zebari, himself a Kurd, said that Turkish incursions into the north of Iraq had already caused problems and any escalation of this action through a NATO or UN mandate would "further complicate matters".

Reconstruction costs

A coalition official says that war damage and sabotage have reduced the oil flow to just $2.3 billion per year, down from an earlier estimate of $3.4 billion. The cash shortfall means that officials in Baghdad are already seeing reconstruction and development projects - including electricity, gas, and water facilities - put on hold because they do not have the funds to start work. (Christian Science Monitor, September 3, 2003)

International Legal Dimension

POW abuse probe

A US Army inquiry report into allegations that four soldiers abused Iraqi prisoners of war is expected within two weeks. The soldiers, who claim they acted in self-defense, face a possible court martial for dereliction of duty, assault, maltreatment of prisoners, conspiracy to obstruct justice and obstruction of justice. They are alleged to have punched and kicked Iraqi POWs while escorting them to Camp Bucca in southern Iraq. (Birmingham (AL) News, 2/9/03)

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

Iraq Council courts Arab League

US pressures Iran on nuclear programme

The US intends to pressurize Iran towards full disclosure of its nuclear programme at an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna on September 8. UN inspectors found traces of highly-enriched uranium within an Iranian nuclear facility, indicating the possible production of weapons-grade material. (Baltimore Sun, 3/9/03)

Return of the Taliban

The US is stepping up its “Afghan assault” and hunting down Taliban fighters in a new offensive in the south-eastern province of Zabul. There has been a recent rise in violence blamed on apparently resurgent Taliban fighters in south-east Afghanistan.

Speaking on September 3 the Zabul provincial chief of intelligence for Karzai's government, Khalil Hotak said that the Taliban hold the support of up to “80 percent of the people”. The Taliban appear to have gained strength in Zabul by defeating local warlords and creating rumours that the US are targeting Muslims. The website http://www.stratfor.com has indicated that the US may have allowed the Taliban and al-Qaida to gain strength in Zabul to make them easier to target and attack.

Road map tensions rise

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has said that Israeli aggression in recent weeks has left the road map “dead”. Speaking on September 3 as the peace talks between Palestine and Israel again stalled over the engagement of militant terror groups Arafat went on to say American preoccupation with Iraq and the upcoming US presidential elections was getting in the way of the US assuring progress on the peace plan.

Abu Mazan, the Palestinian Prime Minister, asked the Palestinian Parliament on September 4 for more support to do his job properly and told them "You either provide the resources of power and support those things... or you take it back". Mazan, who has faced opposition from Arafats Fatah party, said that he did not have the tools available to halt terror groups attacks on Israel.

US troops leave Saudi

US troops finally left Saudi Arabia on August 27. They leave military advisers, FBI officials and IRS investigators within the Kingdom. Most of the US troops were moved to Qatar.

POLITICAL DEBATES

US seeks greater UN role

With the 'post-war' phase of the Iraq conflict having seen more US casualties than during the war, the Bush Administration is now seeking a greater role for the UN in Iraq and is preparing a draft resolution. The US draft of a UN resolution involves authorising a multinational peacekeeping force under US military command and would ask the Iraqi Governing Council to submit a plan and a timetable for writing a constitution, creating a government and holding elections. (Washington Post 3/9/03)

Key provisions in the US draft would:

• Call on UN member states to help train and equip an Iraqi police force.
• Invite the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council to cooperate with the United Nations and US officials in Baghdad to produce "a timetable and program for the drafting of a new constitution for Iraq and for the holding of democratic elections."
• Ask the UN representative in Iraq to facilitate a "national dialogue and consensus building" to promote the political transition.
• Ask all UN member states and international and regional organisations "to accelerate the provision of substantial financial contributions to support the Iraqi reconstruction effort" and appeal to international financial institutions to take immediate steps to provide a full range of loans and other assistance.
• Call on countries in the region "to prevent the transit of terrorists, arms for terrorists, and financing that would support terrorists." (AP story published in the Washington Times (4/9/03))

International response

Russia signalled that it could be willing to send peacekeeping troops to Iraq, depending on the exact wording of the  resolution. Turkey, India, Japan and Pakistan have all made their participation in Iraq conditional on a new UN resolution. (Breaking News 4/9/03)

The leaders of Germany and France criticised the US draft resolution, saying it falls short by not granting responsibility to Iraqis or a large enough role to the UN. The US plan does not address the "priority objective", the transfer of power to a homegrown Iraqi government, said President Jacques Chirac. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said the draft resolution had brought "movement" into the diplomacy but added: "I agree with the President when he says: Not dynamic enough, not sufficient. Now is the time to look forward, and that can only happen if the United Nations can take responsibility for the political process."

In an apparent step down from unilateralism, US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld has begun to seek international help in exchange for an as yet undefined political role, known as “a seat at the table”. According to the NY Times, countries that contribute troops and financial support to American-led military and reconstruction operations in Iraq could be involved in decision making about the mission there. (New York Times 4/9/03)

Report on post-war planning

The US Joint Chiefs of Staff prepared a report last month that has found fault with the Bush Administration’s post-war planning.

According to the report, “Command relationships (and communication requirements) and responsibilities were not clearly defined for DoD [Department of Defense] organizations until shortly before [Operation Iraqi Freedom] commenced." It also says: "Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) elimination and exploitation planning efforts did not occur early enough in the process to allow CentCom [US Central Command] to effectively execute the mission. The extent of the planning required was underestimated. Insufficient U.S. government assets existed to accomplish the mission". (Washington Times 3/9/03)

In Reconstructing Eden, a book on Iraq reconstruction released on 4 September, former US Army Secretary Thomas E. White and three co-authors from CountryWatch argue that the Bush Administration’s "plan for winning the peace is totally inadequate" and warn that the situation "threatens to turn what was a major military victory into a potential humanitarian, political and economic disaster.” (Washington Post 3/9/03).

UK Hutton inquiry

At Tony Blair’s monthly press conference on September 4, the Prime Minister was queried about the accusation by a senior government intelligence officer that No 10  "over-egged" the threat posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. Head of Defence Intelligence Staffs Iraq WMD section, Brian Jones's evidence to the Hutton inquiry on September 3 makes it almost certain that the Prime Minister or other senior government officials will face questions from Lord Hutton about the government's controversial WMD dossier.

Mr Blair asked journalists to suspend judgement on the Hutton inquiry until the report is delivered. He explained that the government is going to "redouble its efforts" to stand up to those in Iraq opposed to the Anglo-American occupation because they fear a "stable, prosperous and democratic Iraq". (The Guardian, 4/9/03)

The inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the death of weapons inspector Dr David Kelly has adjourned until 15 September when Lord Hutton will recall some of the witnesses for further cross examination. Lord Hutton plans to adjourn again on Thursday 25 September, after which he will write his report. 

LATEST POLL RESULTS

US women say no

For the first time since the war started, President Bush does not have the support of a majority of US women for his dealings with Iraq. In an ABC News poll conducted via telephone from 20-24 August, 48% of women approve of his policy towards Iraq, compared with 64% of men. Last month, 60% of men and 55% of women approved. The poll also reveals a 12-point gap between men (64%) and women (52%) on whether the war was worth fighting. In July, the gap was five points.

Transatlantic trends

A transatlantic poll of 8,000 respondents in the US and Europe, conducted in June by the German Marshall Fund of the US, a nonprofit foundation, and Compagnia di San Paolo, a private law foundation based in Turin, Italy, has revealed that opinions about how governments should respond to global trouble spots, including policy towards Iraq, have become more divided during the past year. Participants were asked how they view international threats, the use of force, global leadership, multilaterism and areas of conflict such as the Middle East. Europeans questioned the role of the US as superpower, while Americans support US involvement overseas in record numbers

The survey, called Transatlantic Trends 2003, found that 64% of Europeans disapproved of Bush’s performance and more than 60% of Europeans said the Iraq conflict has not been worth the loss of life and other costs of the Iraq conflict, whereas 55% of Americans said the costs were worth it. (Washington Post 4/9/03)

On attitudes towards war, Americans and Europeans disagreed on whether a war can be just – 48 % of Europeans answered that war may be used to achieve justice compared to 84 % of Americans.

“Overall, the events of the last year seem to have soured European opinion of the US and at the same time improved US feeling about the EU. What I believe this apparent inconsistency is saying is that neither Europeans nor Americans want to go it alone or compete with each other on foreign policy. They both want to see a strong European Union and a US superpower that works through multilateral institutions,” said Craig Kennedy, President of the German Marshall Fund.

“European citizens seem to be aware of the need for a strong, common international role of the EU. In fact, the public seem to be more aware of this need than many of their own governments,” said Piero Gastaldo, Secretary General of the Compagnia di San Paolo.