www. iraqconflict. org

July 4, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

As politicians on both sides of the Atlantic analyse the decision to go to war in Iraq, it is important not to lose focus on the pressing security and humanitarian challenges that remain. At the same time, the death of UK service men last week, adding to the series of US casualties since the end of hostilities, highlights the vulnerability of coalition forces. Hence the comments from the UK Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, on a visit to Baghdad this week, that the attacks increased London’s and Washington’s determination to “root out remnants of Saddam Hussein’s regime. ” Yet whilst military action against the “remnants of the regime” will need to be part of a strategy to restore stability to Iraq, events over the past two weeks only serve to reinforce the need for, and the centrality of, the UN. 

Paul Eavis, Director Saferworld

"We need to prevent this need for pre-emption." Greek Foreign Minister Georges Papandreou speaking in Washington. 

“This idea that we will be in just as long as we need to and not a day more. . . we’ve got to get over that rhetoric. It is rubbish. We’re going to be in there a long time. We must reorganize our military to be there a long time.” Senator Richard Lugar, Republican from Indiana and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 

“The war has moved into a disturbing new phase, a guerilla, counter-insurgency phase. We need to adapt." General Dan Christman, former Pentagon planner. 

“I’m suggesting the American people don’t have any idea what we signed them onto. We’d better tell them." Remarks by Senator Joseph Biden (Democrat from Delaware) on his return from a visit to Iraq. 

“It’s a race against time. We have to re-establish security and re-invigorate the economy before this insurgent, irregular force gets more organized and taps into regular Iraqis' discontent.” Senator Jack Reed, Democrat from Rhode Island and member of Armed Services Committee. 

“… you act off intelligence. Intelligence doesn't necessarily mean something is true. It's just -- it's intelligence. You know, it's your best estimate of the situation. It doesn't mean it's a fact." General Richard Myers at a Department of Defense Briefing on June 24. 

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

UN appeals for more aid

The United Nations have appealed to donor countries to make up an outstanding $259 million in funding needed to carry out its humanitarian relief operations in Iraq through to the end of the year. The amount covers the remainder of the $2. 2 billion flash appeal launched in March and unpredicted requirements that emerged during and after the conflict in Iraq from widespread looting and the destruction. Baroness Amos, the British International Development Minister, pledged a further £35 million in aid to Iraq on June 26. On July 3 the European Commission Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) released a further EUR 37 million for food and health projects. 

Private security

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) infrastructure project manager, Thomas Wheelock, said the looting and sabotage in Iraq has doubled the cost of reconstruction. To alleviate the problems caused by the disorder, the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority will consider a plan to allow individual government ministries to establish and arm security forces that would guard particular facilities. (The Washington Times, 2/7/03). 

The United States has awarded a 12 month/$48 million contract to Northrup Grumman’s Vinnell unit to train the 'nucleus' of the new Iraqi army. Officials hope to have a 12,000 person light infantry unit by the end of that year. Major General Paul Eaton, former commander of the US Infantry Center in Fort Benning, Georgia, will supervise the training. (Los Angeles Times, 26/6/03)The US Central Authority in Iraq is providing the 300-person police force of Fallujah with new uniforms, side arms (. 38 calibre pistols), and rifles. (Associated Press 23/6/03)

UK Development Minister visits Iraq

Bremer fights to keep Kurds in Iraq's future administration

Bounty

Difficulties in Iraq benefit OPEC

International Legal Dimension

Landmines

The latest Arms Control Today bulletin includes the declaration from US Central Command that the US military did not use landmines (either anti-personnel or anti-vehicle) in Iraq. The United States had previously reserved the right to use landmines where appropriate, despite the pressure of the Ottawa Convention involving nearly 150 other states. In the 1991 Gulf War the US used 118,000 landmines. US forces were more mobile this time round and landmines could have constrained their movement. But also the decision not to use landmines could be attributed to international pressure and the position of British and Australian troops fighting alongside the US. 

Unexploded ordnance

War on Terror commissions

President Bush has identified six captives in the war on terror as eligible to be tried before US military commissions. Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense, will determine whether the suspects are actually tried or not. (Reuters, 3/7/03)

Regional and Strategic CONTEXT

Iran: mixed messages

President Bush imposed sanctions on July 3 on five Chinese firms and another from North Korea for allegedly supplying Iran with military technology. Iran has just successfully tested the Shihab-3 missile, capable of reaching Israel, according to Haaretz Daily. The Israeli Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon is due to visit the Pentagon and Central Command in the US next week. The test is likely to result in further procurement by Israel of Arrow missiles, and greater pressure on the US to respond assertively.

The Moscow Times reported on 2 July that Iran may now be ready to sign the additional protocol agreement which would permit greater level of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection of Iran's nuclear facilities. This would be an important concession by Iran and help strengthen the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran will be pressing for specific assurances from the IAEA in return. 

It also looks as if Iran will formally agree to the return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia at the end of its productive life. This would be a very important step as it would ease concerns that Iran intended to reprocess the spent fuel and extract plutonium, potentially for diversion into a nuclear weapons programme. This agreement could be linked to reports that Iran is keen to secure further technical assistance from Russia for its planned expansion in nuclear generation, completing the Bushehr nuclear reactor and building others elsewhere. (See BASIC webnote for analysis on safeguards for Iran's nuclear programme)

Israeli withdrawal leads to new hope

Turkey offer of aid left unanswered

Blair and Putin heal diplomatic wounds

POLITICAL DEBATES

Washington ‘quagmire’

With anti-US sentiment in Iraq growing and a steady number of attacks on British and American troops, the Bush administration is coming under increasing pressure to take more action to improve post-conflict Iraq and to account for the 'WMD' that the Administration used to justify the US-led invasion. American journalists are also questioning whether Iraq would become another 'quagmire' like Vietnam. A blast at a mosque, which killed 10 Iraqi civilians, stoked more anger against the US–led occupation. 

Still no WMD

The search for 'WMD' remains unproductive. The US House and Senate intelligence committees have been holding closed-door investigations into whether the US Administration misused evidence to make its case for war in Iraq. US Presidential candidate and Democratic Senator Bob Graham of Florida (also a former Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman) accused Bush of deceiving Americans before the war and of 'incompetent' leadership after it. (Wall Street Journal, 2/7/03)

Former US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Deputy Director Richard Kerr has led an internal CIA study into pre-war Iraq US intelligence on Iraqi weapons programs. He concluded that the spy agency was "surprisingly consistent" in reporting during the year before the US invasion of Iraq that Baghdad was trying to develop chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. However, Kerr added that the CIA's information on Iraq’s weapons program in recent years was "less specific and detailed" than in earlier years and that this was particularly true after UN weapons inspectors left Iraq in 1998. (Philadelphia Inquirer 3/7/03)

More troops from more countries?

Senators Charles Hagel (Republican from Nebraska) and Joseph Biden (Democrat from Delaware) visited Iraq and are again urging the administration to talk with allies about increasing support for the US-led operation. Senator Biden, in an interview with Fox News Sunday on 29 June, said “I want to see French, German, I want to see Turkish patches on people’s arms sitting on the street corners, standing there in Iraq. That’s one way to communicate to the Iraqi people we are not there as occupiers. The international community is there as liberators”. (The Washington Post, 2/7/03)

Paul Bremer, the top US administrator in Iraq, was reported to have requested more US troops and civilian workers to help expedite the restoration of order and public services. Bush rejected calls for increasing US troop levels in Iraq and Paul Bremer’s spokesman denied the earlier reports that he had expressed "dissatisfaction" with current troop levels. (Philadelphia Inquirer 3/7/03)Critics, however, continued to call for increased support. Retired Army Gen.Barry R.McCaffrey recommended “activating three National Guard divisions to begin creating a rotational base” to support the US force in Iraq. Without it, he said, "this force is going over the cliff at the end of the year. " (Washington Post 3/7/03)

Despite the death toll of coalition troops and civilians both rising British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, speaking in Iraq on July 2, has denied that that Iraq was becoming a quagmire but said there was “a long way to go” before security in Baghdad could be restored. (FT 02/07/03)

A permanent peacekeeping force?

Possibly inspired by the peacekeeping gap in Iraq, reports floated that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was calling for the possible formation of a US-led permanent international peacekeeping force that would be independent of the United Nations or NATO. While similar proposals were circulated during the Clinton Administration, the rhetoric came as a surprise to those who have followed the Bush Administration’s distaste for peacekeeping and nation-building. Rumsfeld later denied that he proposed such an idea. The United States is exploring the possibility of creating an international fund for peacekeeping, which would be financed by oil-rich countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.(Philadelphia Inquirer, 2/7/03)

UK Government under pressure regarding Iraq dossiers

Longer term legislation

Representative Sam Farr, Democrat from California, and several other representatives put forward a bill known as the “Winning the Peace Act of 2003”, on June 26.This proposes the development of a permanent post-conflict framework and was inspired by a project of the Center for Strategic and International Security (CSIS) and the Association of the US Army. A similar bill was introduced in the US Senate earlier in June. The legislation includes the creation of a Multi-national Integrated Security Support Component (ISSC) drawn from NATO's Response Force and a Training Center that can furnish a cadre of post-conflict reconstruction professionals through a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)-like office in USAID. It also calls for the President to establish a task force to train and identify police officers who would be willing to serve overseas.  

'Macho rhetoric'

Responding to the recent series of attacks on US soldiers, President Bush said "bring 'em on" because US forces are "plenty tough" to cope with the problem. Criticizing Bush’s attitude, presidential candidate and US Representative Richard Gephardt (Democrat-Mo. ) said he had heard "enough of the phony, macho rhetoric" from Bush. Bush's spokesman, Ari Fleischer, defended Bush’s language, explaining, "I think what the president was expressing his confidence in the men and women of the military to handle the military mission that they still remain in the middle of. ” (Washington Post 3/7/03)

LATEST POLL RESULTS

USA Today/CNN/Gallup conducted a poll at the end of June showing that 56% (down from 70% from a month ago) of those Americans asked thought the war situation was going well and that the war was worthwhile. Sixty-three percent say the Administration did a good job planning for a post-combat Iraq. 

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