April 4, 2003

CONTENTS     

EDITORIAL

Most Americans believe the Pentagon underestimated the tenacity of Iraqi resistance, and thus did not provide for adequate ground forces in the initial stages of the invasion. It is too late to fix that, but it is not too late to look again at the peace plan, including the need for a more robust security force than the US has planned for.

Tony Blair was right to argue in Washington for a major role for the United Nations in the reconstruction and civil administration of Iraq. But this probably will not happen, and not only because unilateralists in the Bush Administration are not really persuaded that they need help.

UN planners looked at the question of their role in post-Saddam Iraq before hostilities began, and concluded that they lacked the capacity to do in Iraq what they have done in Kosovo and East Timor - to take over the functions of government. The group recommended instead that a UN Assistance Mission should be fielded, similar to that which advises and supports the Karzai government in Afghanistan.  Of course, a necessary condition would be the creation of an interim Iraqi administration for the UN to advise.

Meanwhile the US proceeds with its plan for an interim Administration run by the Pentagon. Retired US Lieutenant General Jay Garner is assembling a team of hundreds in Kuwait and planning to "embed" Americans (and a few others from coalition partners such as the UK) in the Iraqi government while the process of "de-Baathization" proceeds and a new Iraqi government is formed. Getting a Security Council resolution to legitimize such an arrangement is probably out of the question, particularly in view of reports that a US oil executive is to be put in charge of reconstructing the Iraqi oil industry. It would thus appear that for an indefinite period after the fall of Saddam’s government, the US will be saddled with full responsibility for governance and reconstruction in a very tense situation with the continuing likelihood of humanitarian disasters. The potential for disaster is heightened by the apparent insistence of the Pentagon on putting General Garner’s organization in charge of humanitarian relief, despite the objections of UN agencies, NGOs and US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

It is already clear that US plans for a post-war peacekeeping force are inadequate. To make the reconstruction of Iraq work, we need a multilateral approach that can win the endorsement of the Security Council. Now is the time to rethink the Pentagon’s plan.

Ambassador Robert Barry
member of the BASIC Council and former Head of OSCE mission in Bosnia

“In war there is no alternative to victory, in peace there is no alternative to compromise.” Former Israeli Prime Minister, Shimon Peres.

“The military is not set up to feed or provide assistance to a country of 24 million people. They can’t do it.” USAID administrator, Andrew Natsios, on claims that the US military would be in charge of the humanitarian aid effort in Iraq.

“What we need now is not just a regime change in Saddam Hussein and Iraq, but we need a regime change in the United States.'' Senator John F. Kerry.

"I think what's important is that the world respects us, much more important than they love us." Media mogul Rupert Murdoch on the US’s position over the current Iraq crisis.

The use of cluster bombs is "absolutely justified ... because it is making the battlefield safer for our armed forces." UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon.

“In two disastrous years, this Waterhead son of Texas has taken this country from a prosperous nation at peace to a dead-broke nation at War, and that is a very long fall.” American author, Hunter S Thompson, on President Bush.

Post-Conflict Reconstruction

US control of oil contracts (www.strafor.com 02/04/03)

The US administration is looking to use existing US legislation to restrict international oil company’s involvement in the reconstruction of Iraqi oilfields. The Iran-Libya Sanctions Act of 1996, which has never been enforced, calls for sanctions against any non-US company that provides more than $40 million to develop petroleum resources in Iran. If the Act was enforced by the US not only would many of the companies from countries in opposition to the Iraq war be cut out of the reconstruction process but also those in the UK. The US has already caused controversy by announcing that all US reconstruction contracts will go to American companies, leaving non-US firms only with sub-contracted work. 

US to appoint Muslim oil executive to appease Arab sentiment 

The US is considering appointing a prominent Muslim to head up the post-war Iraq oil programme. Several candidates have been mentioned for the post, which will help guide any new Iraqi Oil minister, including Algeria’s oil minister and the head of Petronas, a Malaysian oil company. The US believes that the appointment of a Muslim to such a controversial position could placate those accusing the US of going to war to gain control of Iraq’s petroleum supplies. (Financial Times 03/04/03)

Aid corridor open

The UN is to clarify on April 4 that aid agencies can channel supplies through Umm Qasr, ten days later than planned. However difficulties with dredging and minesweeping are still hampering the ability of large ships to dock. Aid groups remain wary of on-going fighting in the area and of the potential impacts of aid delivery in such a militarised and politicised situation. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) provides daily updates on the delivery of aid.

US humanitarian aid groups warn of military involvement 

Interaction, a US organisation that represents around 160 aid groups involved in Iraq has warned the US Government that relief efforts would be seriously damaged if the US military takes charge of humanitarian affairs in Iraq. In a statement on April 2, Interaction warned that non-governmental agencies working under the jurisdiction of the military would complicate their ability to help the Iraqi people and multiply the danger faced by relief workers. Patrick Nicholson of the UK charity Cafod, added weight to this upon his return from Umm Qasar, declaring the current humanitarian effort a “shambles”.

Senior UN official warns against reliance on oil funds for reconstruction costs

The director of the UN Development programme, Mark Malloch Brown, has warned that the Iraqi oil industry is not in a position to finance the reconstruction of Iraq without major investment first. Malloch Brown said that Iraq “needs a sustained burst of new investment” and that American planning figures “don’t add up”. 

UN to take lead on aid?

US Christian groups to use aid as cover for conversion?

International Legal Dimension

Possible use of Chemical Weapons and other WMD

Although fears of the use of chemical weapons by Iraq are starting to recede (though concerns remain that they may be used in the final battle for Baghdad), debate continues over the use of chemical weapons by US forces, with calls to review the rules of war and 're-interpretations' of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to allow the use of pepper spray, CS gas and other chemical calmatives. The Pentagon has already authorised the use of tear gas in Iraq. Advocates point to the accusations that Saddam Hussein is using US 'adherence' to the Geneva Conventions as a weapon in itself, and that ‘non-lethal’ chemical calmatives may be the only viable choice in taking Baghdad. Their use, though illegal under the CWC (which bans the use of chemicals that incapacitate temporarily or permanently in any war situation), is likely in the next few weeks.

Geneva Conventions... general conduct

… prisoners

On April 1 UK Prime Minister’s office claimed that it had received assurances that all Iraqis captured by the US would be classed as prisoners of war and dealt with under the terms of the Geneva Convention. US military spokesman have increasingly been referring to irregular Iraqi forces as “terror squads”. There had been reports that US authorities were planning to send Fedayeen and other irregular forces to Guantanamo Bay and to classify them as ‘unlawful combatants’ (even though under the Convention such combatants must be treated as POWs “until such time as a competent [international] tribunal has determined their status”. Responding to such reports, UK Cabinet Ministers had pointed out that it would be illegal for any of the 8,000 prisoners held by British forces to be handed over to the US because of that country's continued use of the death penalty. British officers in Kuwait have made it clear they would rather see the POWs tried through judicial process, possibly through the new international criminal court. The ICRC has begun visiting Iraqi prisoners.

… indiscriminate munitions

... laying seige and civilian targets

The Geneva Convention requires the belligerent occupying power to take responsibility for the humanitarian needs of the civilian population under occupation. Denis Halliday, former UN Assistant Secretary General responsible for Iraq’s food-for-oil programme criticised the coalition for creating the circumstances leading to a severe humanitarian disaster in Basra. Recent days have seen increased targeting of dual-use and civilian targets, including telephone exchanges and media offices within Baghdad and other cities. Baghdad over the last few days now frequently suffers from power loss. Earlier efforts to avoid civilian casualties have been relaxed.

There have also been reports that the US is looking to learn from the experience of Israeli forces in Jenin and elsewhere in urban conflict, and considering the use of armoured bulldozers to flatten buildings.

… television

Accusations blew up over March 29-30 that al Jazeera TV were breaking the rules of war by showing pictures of captured US soldiers... and more recently for showing distressing images of civilian casualties. Al Jazeera defended its actions by claiming that such images were essential to enable a true understanding of conflict.

Regional and Strategic Impacts

Turkey

During his visit to Turkey, Colin Powell failed to receive any guarantee that Turkish troops would not move military forces into northern Iraq to suppress any Kurdish uprisings (Independent 03/04/03). He also failed to persuade the Turks to allow US troops to operate search and rescue missions from Southern Turkey, although such operations are now happening in northern Iraq (Financial Times 3/04/03). Powell succeeded in securing permission to deliver aid and food into northern Iraq through Turkey.

Serb resigns over arms to Iraq

POLITICAL DEBATES

Security Council latest

The UNSC has also had to consider its reactions to the letter from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei on the question of North Korea’s nuclear programme.

Powell visit to heal EU-US relations

Colin Powell visited Europe for a symbolic meeting at NATO headquarters to discuss post-war Iraq and the Middle East peace process. Bilateral meetings were held with his counterparts from 22 nations, but they resulted in no concrete agreements. Differences remained over what role the UN would play in post-war Iraq. Gen Powell emphasised the US's right to set policy since it had sacrificed lives, and that "the UN must play a role but that role remains to be seen". EU leaders continued to push for the UN to be 'at centre stage'. 

The issue of NATO taking over peacekeeping task was discussed, but Lord Robertson said "the issue of whether and how NATO might contribute to this effort will need to be considered carefully, including in the light of decisions taken by the United Nations". Robertson concluded that the meetings proved relations between the EU and US were now "through the worst".

UK commitment on Iraqi control

Speaking during Prime Minister's question time, Tony Blair emphasised that "Iraq should not be run by the coalition, or the UN, it should be run by the Iraqis". Earlier, in a Ministerial meeting, he had outlined a three-stage plan that would lead to an Iraqi-controlled democracy as soon as possible after the war. Reports suggest that Blair is hoping to secure a Security Council resolution to approve a plan for post-war Iraq, but will have to build bridges between the US and EU to ensure consensus. 

No UK invasion of Syria and Iran

Peres says coalition victory in Iraq will benefit Arab world

The former Israeli Prime Minister, Shimon Peres, has said that the defeat of Saddam Hussein’s regime would be of benefit to the whole region. Speaking at an event organised by the Institute for Public Policy Research in London on April 2 Peres accused anti-war protestors of double standards, saying that no one protested when the Kurds were killed or Iran was invaded. Peres praised the US and UK, comparing the Iraq conflict to Kosovo, and said that the current international political divisions over the war were potentially more damaging to the Middle East’s stability than the war itself.

LATEST POLL RESULTS

US support for both the war and the President has once again remained level.  The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll put approval for Bush at 71% and support for the war at 70%.  Americans continue to be resigned to the prospect of a war lasting months, with 32% believing that it would take up to three months and 27% believing it would last as long as six months.  Insofar as the war itself has developed, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal has indicated that 9% consider the war to have gone better than expected, 20% believing it has gone worse than expected and 67% considering that it has gone roughly as they initially expected.  Interestingly, 46% of those polled expressed the belief that the administration had underestimated the strength of the Iraqi military.  Another poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press also confirmed that support for war remained at 69%, although it found differences in such perceptions according to age, race and sex.  The poll also found the 39% of respondents considered the war to be going very well. 

Finally, in a PIPA/Knowledge Networks Poll conducted between March 22 and 25, but released on March 31, there were indications of significant support for the UN to take the lead.  It indicated that 52% of those polled preferred the UN to play this role with 30% preferring that the US do it.

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