BASIC Getting to Zero Papers, No. 10
Nuclear Iran: India has made its choice
13 October 2008
Siddharth Ramana - BASIC
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India and Iran share a long friendship, owing to common security
interests in Afghanistan and trade relations. This friendship
is perceived to be a strategic relationship, wherein the countries
are in negotiations for a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline.
However, in recent years, relations between the two countries
has been eroding
over delays in finalizing the pipeline agreement, the nuclear
ambitions of Iran and the pro-Israeli/ American tilt of the
Indian leadership.
The recently agreed US-India nuclear deal will provide India
with previously restricted nuclear fuel and technology, giving
India the benefits available to Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT)
members while still developing a nuclear weapon arsenal. Iran,
a signatory to the NPT, is much aggrieved
by what it sees as double standards. Similar assistance to
that offered to India is offered to Iran under the unique
condition of restrictions to its domestic fuel-cycle activities.
Iran stands accused of violating its safeguards agreement
with the IAEA and is suspected to have had a nuclear weapons
program, for which they have been censured by both the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board and UN Security Council.
Revelations
that Iran was a beneficiary, in the now infamous A.Q. Khan
network have undermined any support they might have enjoyed
from China and Russia. Verbal tirades
against Israel by the President and the Supreme Leader have
further isolated Iran, and magnified fears of the consequences
arising from its nuclear ambitions. In this environment, at
the IAEA Board in 2005 India chose to vote
in favor of reporting Iran to the Security Council for violations
of its safeguards obligations.
The vote's timing, during early negotiations on the Indo-US
deal, and the preceding statements from American officials,
relegated genuine Indian concerns of a nuclear Iran to the
background. In September 2007, Richard Boucher, assistant
secretary of state for South Asia, said
"The Indian government is very well aware of the concerns
over India's military relationship with Iran. What we are
trying to do is for everybody to understand the facts of the
matter." According
to the US Ambassador to India, if India had not supported
the censure of Iran, the nuclear deal would have been in trouble.
This had raised the hackles of Indian officials, who did
not wish to be seen as being bulldozed into voting in favor
of the western nations. Seeking to allay fears of American
bullying, the Indian defense minister A.K Anthony articulated
"India has very friendly relations with Iran. It will continue
to do so. India's friendship will not come in the way of good
relations with any other country."
A nuclear Iran is not in India's security interests. In addition,
India is seeking to project itself as an important world power
and realizes the diplomatic implications of siding with an
isolated state accused of violating its non-proliferation
ideals. The Indian government has long championed non-proliferation
despite its abstaining from the NPT, and would not wish to
tarnish that record. In fact, the nature of the Iranian nuclear
program and India's friendship with Iran had resulted in a
tough spot for Indian officials, who were hoping that a vote
could be avoided.
A nuclear Iran opens up a frightening possibility of an arms
race in the Middle East, especially with nations such as Egypt
and Saudi Arabia already airing their apprehensions of growing
Iranian influence in the region, and their own interest in
nuclear power. Such instability would push oil prices significantly
higher, and this would considerably hurt the Indian government
which relies on oil imports and subsidizes fuel prices in
the country.
Energy security concerns have been instrumental in pushing
India to align with the United States to pursue nuclear energy.
The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline has been in negotiations
for nearly a decade and is not economically feasible considering
the security environment in Afghanistan and the Pakistan.
In order to pursue nuclear energy, India had to translate
its strong anti-proliferation words into action, and this
was witnessed when it banned
the export of any dual use technology to Iran.
There is little doubt that any other strategy towards Iran
at the IAEA would also have complicated India's dealings with
Israel, its second
largest defense supplier. To the dismay
of the Iranian government, earlier this year India launched
an Israeli spy satellite, ostensibly to monitor Iranian nuclear
facilities. Significantly, a recent visit to India by the
Iranian President was downplayed, with the Indian Prime Minister
declining a joint press briefing. Israel embassy spokesperson
Lior Weintraub, had spoken about India's role in restricting
a nuclear Iran, when he said
"it is a global responsibility in denying the Iranians the
capability to develop nuclear weapons".
Addressing another aspect of a nuclear Iran, the Indian Ambassador
to the United States articulated
the need to strengthen the proliferation regime, when he said
'a combination of terrorism and nuclear weapons would be a
nightmare for India, and therefore India would oppose another
nuclear weapons state in the region'.
Despite high level meetings continuing between the two countries,
and even
military cooperation, relations have been frosty. Iran's exasperation
over Indian concerns on the pipeline have led to speculations
that India would lose out on the deal, and China would be
the end benefactor. According
to Iran's Energy & Economic Counsellor in India, Ainollah
Souri, it was feasible, technically as well as economically
for an Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline. US Deputy Secretary of
State Robert Zoellick warned
China of a risk to its relationship with the United States.
The Indian Prime Minister's strong statement
against a nuclear Iran, following a state visit to the United
States, raises lingering questions of American pressure.
While India strongly opposes a military solution to the problem,
it has its own independent interests in preventing Iran acquiring
a nuclear weapon capability. Its continued relationship with
Iran coupled with its new strategic partnership with the United
States, places it in a crucial position with the leverage
to help form a breakthrough in stalled negotiations. Indian
foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee is preparing to visit Tehran
in the near future.
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